事件：公司发布关于提供担保的进展的公告。
　　资产负债率同比略有下降。截至2026年4月30日，公司提供的对外担保总额合计为583.68亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的116%，全部属于公司对控股子公司提供的担保。公司预计2026年度为92家控股子公司提供担保792.76亿元，为3家联营合营企业提供担保3.47亿元。截至2026Q1，公司资产负债率为84.54%，同比下降0.74pct。
　　2025年业绩承压。2026Q1扭亏为盈，经营现金流净额同比改善。2025年，公司实现营业总收入2059.97亿元，同降31.38%。其中，建筑施工实现营收1743.01亿元，同降34.64%；设计咨询实现营收47.10亿元，同降3.60%；建材工业实现营收116.70亿元，同降19.84%；房产开发实现营收64.99亿元，同增78.94%。公司实现归母净利润12.37亿元，同降42.93%，实现扣非归母净利润0.62亿元，同降89.87%。报告期公司经营现金流量净额为65.60亿元，去年同期为121.33亿元，主要系购买商品、接受劳务支付的现金减少。公司2025年毛利率为10.31%，同升1.57pct，净利率为0.60%，同降0.12pct。2026Q1，公司实现营收491.02亿元，同增21.79%；实现归母净利润0.1亿元，同增1.89亿元；实现扣非净利润0.28亿元，同增1.72亿元。公司实现经营现金流净额-158.4亿元，去年同期为-232.8亿元。
　　境外业务收入增速较快，新兴业务加速拓展。2025年，公司新签合同2529亿元，2024年为3890.46亿元。2025年公司海外市场新签合同100亿元，同比增长44%。境外业务实现营业收入62.65亿元，同比增长31.63%。同时，公司大力发展城市更新、水利水务、工业化建造、新基建等六大新兴业务，打造“第二增长曲线”。2025年，六大新兴业务完成新签合同近五百亿元，占施工类业务的23.8%。2026Q1，公司新签合同603.74亿元，同降6.47%。
　　投资建议：预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为14.01，15.24、16.18亿元，分别同比+13.3%/+8.7%/+6.2%，对应P/E分别为17.06/15.69/14.78倍，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：固定资产投资下滑的风险；新签订单不及预期的风险；应收账款回收不及预期的风险。

Shanghai Construction released its interim results,with 1H26 revenue of RMB96,042mn(-8.57%YoY),attributable NP of RMB408mn(-42.47%YoY),and recurring NP of-RMB113mn(-152.29%YoY).In 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP stood at RMB46,940/407mn(-27.48/-54.19%YoY,-4.40/+40,915.45%QoQ),below our expectation of RMB638mn,owing to alarger-than-expected revenue decline.As aleading regional construction SOE in Shanghai,the company benefits from urban renewal and urban village renovation,demonstrating stronger operational resilience than other regions.We maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1H26 overall GPM picked up
In 1H26,the company's overall GPM reached 9.14%(+0.86pp YoY),with 2Q26 at 10.38%(+1.63pp YoY,+2.42pp QoQ).By segment,1H26 revenue from construction/building materials/design consulting reached RMB73,600/3,900/1,500mn(-20.1/-36.9/-0.8%YoY),accounting for 76.9/4.0/1.6%of total revenue(-11.3/-1.8/+0.1pp YoY),with GPMs of 8.3/10.5/24.9%(+1.76/-0.13/+9.64pp YoY).Property development generated revenue of RMB13,400mn,vs only RMB553mn in 1H25,with its revenue share rising 13.5pp to 14.1%,possibly related to project delivery schedules.Additionally,the gold business achieved revenue of RMB649mn,+61%YoY,with aGPM of 41.8%.
Revenue slide and financial expense rise lifted expense ratio
In 1H26,the expense ratio was 8.51%(+0.82pp YoY),with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios of 0.41/3.48/3.16/1.46%(+0.18/-0.10/+0.21/+0.52pp YoY).Financial expenses grew+42.5%YoY,due to the expensing of interest on certain property projects settled this year,leading to asignificant decline in interest income.Total impairment expenses in 1H26 were RMB118mn,vs areversal of RMB315mn in 1H25.Consequently,the 1H26 attributable NPM stood at 0.43%(-0.25pp YoY),with 2Q26 at 0.87%(-0.51pp YoY).As of end-1H26,the debt-to-asset ratio/interest-bearing debt ratio were 84.5/24.1%(-1.08/+0.04pp YoY),with accounts receivable and contract assets decreasing by RMB4,500/7,300mn YoY.Net operating cash flow in 1H26 was-RMB15,600mn(with outflow narrowing by RMB2,890mn YoY),with cash received/paid ratios at 114/129%(-11.6/-14.6pp YoY).
1H26 new orders for engineering business stabilized
In 1H26,newly-signed contracts totaled RMB121.5bn(-6.7%YoY),with 2Q26 at RMB61.1bn(-6.9%YoY).By segment,construction/design consulting/building materials/property contracts reached RMB99.5/6.7/9.0/2.9bn(+1.6/-9.0/-32.8/-58.8%YoY),with the core engineering business stabilizing and recovering.The company has expanded into six emerging businesses and seven fields along its industry chain,with emerging business contracts of RMB31.1bn,accounting for 26%of new contracts.Among these,urban renewal/ecological environment/water conservancy contracts reached RMB8.9/1.6/5.3bn,while intelligent construction/construction services/new infrastructure contributed RMB3.3/1.1/10.8bn.Regionally,the Yangtze River Delta accounted for 78%,with overseas contracts at RMB4.2bn(+25%YoY),representing 3%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB1,073/1,021/1,052mn.Given the company's sufficient impairment provisions,the potential for Shanghai's property market to recover first,and its gold mine resources,we value the stock at 25x 2026E PE,above its peers’average of 15x on Wind consensus.We maintain our target price of RMB3.02.OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Contract execution missing our expectations,delayed cash collection.

　　上海建工发布半年报，2026H1实现营收960.42亿元（yoy-8.57%），归母净利4.08亿元（yoy-42.47%），扣非净利-1.13亿元（yoy-152.29%）。其中Q2实现营收469.40亿元（yoy-27.48%，qoq-4.40%），归母净利4.07亿元（yoy-54.19%，qoq+40915.45%），低于我们的预期（6.38亿元），主要是收入下滑超预期。公司作为上海区域建筑国企龙头，深度受益城市更新与城中村改造，经营韧性优于其他区域，维持“增持”。
　　26H1整体毛利率提升，建筑与设计业务毛利改善、黄金业务高增
　　26H1公司综合毛利率为9.14%，同比+0.86pct，其中26Q2为10.38%，同比+1.63pct，环比+2.42pct。分业务看，26H1建筑施工/建材工业/设计咨询实现营收736/39/15亿元，同比-20.1%/-36.9%/-0.8%，占比76.9%/4.0%/1.6%，同比-11.3/-1.8/+0.1pct，毛利率8.3%/10.5%/24.9%，同比+1.76/-0.13/+9.64pct。房产开发实现收入134亿元，25H1仅有5.53亿元，占比升13.5pct至14.1%，或与项目交付节奏有关。此外，公司黄金业务实现营收6.49亿元，同比增长61%，毛利率达41.8%。
　　收入下滑、财务费用增长抬升期间费用率，减值增加拖累净利率
　　26H1期间费用率8.51%，同比+0.82pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为0.41%/3.48%/3.16%/1.46%，同比+0.18/-0.10/+0.21/+0.52pct，财务费用同比增长42.5%，主因部分房地产项目结算本年利息支出转费用化，导致利息收入大幅减少。26H1合计减值支出1.18亿元，去年同期为冲回3.15亿元。综合影响下，公司26H1归母净利率为0.43%，同比-0.25pct，26Q2归母净利率0.87%，同比-0.51pct。截至26H1末公司资产负债率/有息负债率分别为84.5%/24.1%，同比-1.08/+0.04pct，应收账款、合同资产同比减少45/73亿元。26H1经营性现金流净额-156亿元，同比少流出28.9亿元，收/付现比114%/129%，同比-11.6/-14.6pct。
　　26H1工程主业新签合同企稳，新兴业务占比26%
　　26H1公司新签合同额1215亿元，同比-6.7%，其中26Q2新签611亿元，同比-6.9%。其中上半年建筑施工/设计咨询/建材工业/房地产分别新签合同额995/67/90/29亿元，同比+1.6%/-9.0%/-32.8%/-58.8%，工程主业新签企稳回升。公司围绕产业链格局拓展六大新兴业务、七大重点赛道，六大新兴业务新签合同额311亿元，新签占比26%，其中城市更新、生态环境、水利水务分别新签89/16/53亿元，智能建造、建筑服务业与新基建领域分别新签33/11/108亿元。分地区看，长三角区域占比达78%，海外新签42亿元，同比+25%，占比3%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润为10.73/10.21/10.52亿元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为15倍，考虑到公司减值计提充分，上海地产市场有望率先回暖，且同时拥有金矿资源，认可给予公司26年25倍PE估值，维持目标价为3.02元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：订单落地不及预期；工程回款不及预期。

Shanghai Construction reported its annual results with 2025 revenue of RMB205,997mn(-31.38%YoY),attributable NP of RMB1,237mn(-42.93%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB62.15mn(-89.87%YoY),where the attributable NP matched its preliminary results.In 4Q25,revenue/attributable NP stood at RMB47,918/26.03mn(-44.41/-96.81%YoY,-9.65/-94.81%QoQ).
GPM notably enhanced on multiple factors
In 2025,revenue from construction/design consulting/building materials/property development/urban construction investment reached RMB174,300/4,700/11,700/6,500/1,300mn(-34.6/-3.5/-19.8/+78.9/-27.5%YoY),with GPMs of 8.4/23.0/12.3/11.7/85.2%(+1.4/-0.1/-1.3/+1.9/-4.6pp YoY).While revenue from the higher-weighted construction segment declined significantly,its GPM improved due to enhanced project profitability management,and both volume and pricing improved for the property segment.The full-year 2025 GPM reached 10.31%(+1.57pp YoY),with 4Q25 GPM at 14.62%(+4.52pp YoY,+4.19pp QoQ).
Expense ratio passively rose on dipping revenue
In 2025,the company's expense ratio reached 8.85%(+1.61pp YoY),with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios of 0.31/3.68/3.81/1.05%(+0.09/+1.09/+0.11/+0.33pp YoY),as the significant revenue decline led to passive expansion of expense ratios.The 2025 impairment expense ratio increased by 0.35pp YoY to 1.06%;non-recurring gains/losses decreased by RMB380mn YoY,mainly due to higher asset disposal gains in the previous year.Consequently,the 2025 attributable NPM/recurring attributable NPM stood at 0.6/0.03%(-0.12/-0.17pp YoY).The 2025 net operating cash flow was RMB6,560mn(inflow decreasing by RMB5,570mn YoY),primarily due to asignificant increase in the cash paid ratio,with cash received/paid ratios at 112.7/107.7%(+16.5/+19.2pp YoY).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the slowdown in traditional investments in the company's core operating region of Shanghai,we have revised downward our estimates for new contract signings and revenue in Shanghai.We adjust the 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP to RMB1,073/1,021/1,052mn(representing reductions of 55.76/59.84%from previous estimates).Given the company's sufficient impairment provisions,the potential for Shanghai's property market to recover first,and its gold mine resources,we value the stock at 25x 2026E PE,above its peers’average of 11x on Wind consensus.We lower our target price to RMB3.02(previous:RMB3.63,on 14x 2025E PE).
Risks:contract execution falling short of our expectations,delayed cash collection.

　　上海建工发布年报，2025年实现营收2059.97亿元（yoy-31.38%），归母净利12.37亿元（yoy-42.93%），扣非净利6214.55万元（yoy-89.87%），归母净利符合业绩预告。其中25Q4实现营收479.18亿元（yoy-44.41%，qoq-9.65%），归母净利2602.67万元（yoy-96.81%，qoq-94.81%）。
　　工程管理提效、地产回暖带动综合毛利率显著提升
　　分业务，25年建筑施工/设计咨询/建材工业/房产开发/城市建设投资实现营收1743/47/117/65/13亿元，同比-34.6%/-3.5%/-19.8%/+78.9%/-27.5%。毛利率8.4%/23.0%/12.3%/11.7%/85.2%，同比+1.4/-0.1/-1.3/+1.9/-4.6pct。占比较高的建筑施工业务收入下降较多，但受益于加强项目效益管理，毛利率有所提升，房产业务量价均有所改善。25年全年毛利率为10.31%，同比+1.57pct，其中25Q4毛利率为14.62%，同比+4.52pct，环比+4.19pct。
　　收入下滑较多导致费用率被动抬升
　　25年期间费用率为8.85%，同比+1.61pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为0.31%/3.68%/3.81%/1.05%，同比+0.09/+1.09/+0.11/+0.33pct，收入下滑较多导致费用率被动抬升。25年减值支出占比同比+0.35pct至1.06%；25年非经常性损益同比减少3.8亿，主要由于去年处置资产收益较高。综合影响下，公司25年归母净利率为/扣非归母净利率0.6%/0.03%，同比-0.12/-0.17pct。25年经营性净现金流65.60亿，同比少流入55.7亿元，主要是付现比提升较多所致，收、付现比分别为112.7%/107.7%，同比+16.5/+19.2pct。
　　26Q1新签合同有所企稳
　　25年公司新签合同额2529亿元，同比-35%，其中建筑施工/设计咨询/建材工业/房地产分别新签合同额1943/167/246/110亿元，同比-40%/-12%/-17%/+18%。分地区看，上海市场新签合同额占比68%，长三角地区（除上海）和华南地区新签合同分别占比12%和6.5%，海外新签100亿元，同比+85%。26Q1新签合同额604亿元，同比-6.5%，其中建筑施工新签合同503亿元，同比-1.55%，有所企稳。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司核心经营区域上海市场传统投资放缓，我们下调公司未来上海地区新签订单及收入，调整公司26-28年归母净利润为10.73/10.21/10.52亿元（较前值分别调整-55.76%/-59.84%/-）。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为11倍，考虑到公司减值计提充分，上海地产市场有望率先回暖，且同时拥有金矿资源，认可给予公司26年25倍PE估值，下调目标价为3.02元（前值3.63元，对应25年14xPE）。
　　风险提示：订单落地不及预期；工程回款不及预期。