For 1H26, revenue was RMB10,120mn (-21% YoY), and attributable net loss was RMB70mn, swinging from profit in 1H25 but aligning with the range indicated in the profit alert. The loss was mainly due to drag from equity investments, while booked profit from the core property business remained considerable. For 1H26, contracted sales increased by 20% YoY, and we expect full-year contracted sales to maintain positive growth. The company is seeking land acquisition opportunities in Beijing. Land reserves of the company focus on Beijing, with strong resource endowment. We are upbeat on the company benefiting from market recovery driven by the new property policies in Beijing. Maintain BUY.
Equity investments weighed on profit
With the delivery of the final batch of commodity housing at Temple of Heaven Mansion, resources pending settlement of the company declined markedly, driving a YoY decline in revenue in 1H26. However, the core reason for the attributable net loss was equity investment losses. In 1H26, share prices of Guosen Securities/Micro-Tech Nanjing, held directly and indirectly by the company, fell by 24/12%. We estimate this caused losses of around RMB900mn. Excluding this, and after deducting dividend income of RMB140mn, booked profit from the core property business remained considerable. Looking ahead for the full year, we believe limited resources pending settlement may put more pressure on revenue, but the company could return to profit through lower asset impairment losses.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering limited resources pending settlement and equity investment losses in 1H26, we cut our revenue and fair value gain/loss forecasts, and lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 55/4/4% to RMB140/500/620mn from previous RMB320/520/640mn. We project 2026 BVPS of RMB9.87. Considering the large earnings swings caused by factors such as equity investments and inventory impairments, we value the stock at 0.55x 2026E PB, below its peers' average of 0.68x. Our target price is RMB5.43 (previous: RMB5.97, based on 0.6x 2026E PB). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Beijing market uncertainties; slower-than-expected progress in shantytown renovation and primary land development projects; earnings volatility caused by asset impairments, equity investments, and the share of minority interest.

　　公司8月26日发布半年报，1H26实现营收101.2亿元，同比-21%；归母净利润-0.7亿元，同比转亏，但处在此前预亏公告的范围之内，主要受股权投资拖累，地产主业结转利润实际较为可观。1H26公司销售金额同比+20%，全年有望保持正增长，并积极寻求北京拿地机会。公司土地储备聚焦北京，资源禀赋突出，我们看好其受益于北京地产新政驱动的市场复苏。维持“买入”评级。
　　股权投资拖累利润，地产主业结转利润较为可观
　　随着天坛府最后一批次商品住宅的交付，公司待结转资源显著减少，1H26营收出现同比下滑。但公司出现归母净亏损的核心原因在于股权投资的亏损，1H26公司直接/间接持有的国信证券/南微医学股价下跌24%/12%，我们测算由此造成的亏损约为9亿元，剔除后（还需扣除分红收益1.4亿元）地产主业结转利润实际上较为可观。展望全年，我们认为公司待结转资源有限可能导致营收进一步承压，但仍有望通过资产减值的收缩实现扭亏。
　　2Q26销售金额同比大增，全年有望保持正增长
　　1H26公司销售金额同比+20%至125亿元，其中2Q同比+94%至99亿元，主要因为龙樾海序、嘉棠璟樾等2H25拿地的北京项目在首开后取得亮眼销售成绩，此外北京合院、星悦时光、国誉星城等续销项目，以及部分老库存取得良好去化。1H26公司积极在北京寻求拓储机会，但由于市场竞争激烈，最终只在石景山区新获取1宗地块，总价22亿元，拿地强度18%，权益比例100%，货值约41亿元。展望全年，我们认为8月7日出台的北京地产新政有望巩固市场复苏态势，加快公司北京项目去化，全年销售金额有望保持同比正增长（25年为189亿元）；同时，公司或将继续积极寻找北京为主的拿地机会。
　　低成本融资渠道保持畅通
　　截至1H26，公司净负债率/扣除预收账款的资产负债率/短债覆盖率分别为144%/77%/159%，“三道红线”处于“橙档”。但得益于国企背景和较为宽松的流动性环境，1-8月（截至8月27日）公司发行3年期中票18.6亿元，利率低至2.1%-2.2%，低成本融资渠道保持畅通。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司待结转资源有限和1H26股权投资的亏损，我们下调营收和公允价值变动损益，调整26-28年归母净利润至1.4/5.0/6.2亿元（前值3.2/5.2/6.4亿元，下调55%/4%/4%），26EBPS为9.87元。可比公司平均26PB为0.68倍，考虑到公司业绩受股权投资和存货减值等因素影响波动较大，我们认为公司合理26PB为0.55倍，目标价5.43元（前值5.97元，基于0.6倍26PB）。
　　风险提示：北京区域市场风险，棚改和一级开发项目进展不及预期的风险，资产减值、股权投资、少数股东损益占比导致业绩波动的风险。

BJ Urban Construction released its 1Q26 report on 29 April: 1Q26 revenue was RMB7.81bn (+18% YoY); attributable NP was RMB160mn (+280% YoY). Benefiting from the delivery of the last batch of commercial residential units at Tiantanfu, the company overcame the pressure of widened stock investment losses YoY in 1Q26, leading to a significant YoY increase in attributable NP, but operational performance was relatively subdued. In 2025, land acquisition intensity recovered significantly and the company focused on its home market (Beijing). In 2026, BJ Urban Construction is well positioned to benefit from the early recovery of Beijing and Shanghai property markets, with full-year sales value likely to resume growth, and full-year results should in our view turn profitable driven by narrowing impairment losses. Maintain BUY.
Earnings grew strongly on delivery of Tiantanfu
The significant YoY increase in 1Q26 attributable NP was mainly due to the delivery of the last batch of commercial residential units at the key project Tiantanfu, which drove: 1) revenue up 18% YoY; 2) GPM after taxes and surcharges up 5.6pp YoY to 16.6%. It should be noted that in 1Q26, the stock prices of Guosen Securities and Micro-Tech (Nanjing) directly/indirectly held by the company declined, and we estimate this resulted in total losses of RMB590mn from fair value changes and investment losses (total losses of RMB340mn in 1Q25), so the profit scale from the core property development business was actually quite considerable.
1Q26 operating soft; full-year sales likely to resume growth
In 1Q26, the company's sales value was RMB2.6bn (-51% YoY), with no new land acquisitions. Looking ahead, the Sanya Lucheng No. 1 project acquired in 2023 has reached the condition for completed property sales and was launched in March 2026 (according to fang.com). This, coupled with the recovery in land acquisition intensity in 2025 (four land parcels in Beijing), makes us expect the company's sales value to resume positive growth in 2026 (2025: RMB18.9bn).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Looking ahead, although limited resources pending settlement may pressure revenue scale, the company could in our view still turn profitable through the contraction of asset impairments. We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB315/516/642mn, with 2026E BVPS at RMB9.95. We value the stock at 0.60x 2026E PB, a discount to its peers' average of 0.64x on Wind consensus to factor in heavy inventory impairment pressure on earnings, maintaining our target price of RMB5.97.
Risks: local market risks in Beijing; progress in shantytown renovations and primary development projects trailing our expectations; earnings fluctuations caused by asset impairments, equity investments, and the share of minority interests.

　　公司4月29日发布一季报，1Q26实现营收78.1亿元，同比+18%；归母净利润1.6亿元，同比+280%。得益于天坛府最后一批次商品住宅的交付，1Q26公司克服股票投资亏损同比扩大的压力，归母净利润同比大幅增长，但经营表现较为平淡。25年公司拿地强度显著恢复，且聚焦北京大本营，26年有望受益于京沪房地产市场的率先复苏，全年销售金额或将恢复增长，全年业绩则有望在减值规模收窄的推动下扭亏。维持“买入”评级。
　　天坛府最后一批次商品住宅交付推动业绩同比高增
　　1Q26公司归母净利润同比大幅增长，主要因为重点项目天坛府迎来最后一批次商品住宅的交付，推动：1、营收同比+18%；2、扣除税金及附加后的毛利率同比+5.6pct至16.6%。需要注意的是，1Q26公司直接/间接持有的国信证券/南微医学股价出现下跌，我们预计造成公允价值变动损失和投资亏损共5.9亿元（1Q25共亏损3.4亿元），因此地产主业结转的的利润规模实际上相当可观。
　　1Q26经营表现较为平淡，全年销售金额有望恢复增长
　　1Q26公司销售金额同比-51%至26亿元，无新增拿地。往前看，公司于23年拿地的三亚鹿城壹号项目已达到现房销售条件，并已于26年3月开盘（根据房天下的数据），叠加25年拿地强度的回升（4宗北京地块），我们预计26年公司销售金额有望恢复正增长（25年为189亿元）。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　往前看，尽管公司待结转资源有限导致营收规模可能承压，但仍有望通过资产减值的收缩实现扭亏。我们维持26-28年归母净利润为3.15/5.16/6.42亿元的盈利预测，26EBPS为9.95元。可比公司平均26PB为0.64倍，考虑到公司业绩受存货减值拖累较大，我们认为公司合理26PB为0.60倍，维持目标价5.97元。
　　风险提示：北京区域市场风险，棚改和一级开发项目进展不及预期的风险，资产减值、股权投资、少数股东损益占比导致业绩波动的风险。

BJ Urban Construction's 2025 revenue was RMB30.28bn (+19% YoY) and attributable net loss was RMB410mn (narrowing by RMB540mn YoY), in line with its profit alert. In 2025, booked sales, GPM, and stock investment profit all improved YoY. However, amid property market adjustments, asset impairments widened YoY, leading to an attributable net loss for the second consecutive year. In 2025, land acquisition intensity recovered significantly and the company focused on its home market (Beijing). We expect sales value to resume growth in 2026. The company is poised to benefit from the early recovery of Beijing and Shanghai property markets. Maintain BUY.
Large inventory impairments in 3Q/4Q led to an annual loss
For 2025, property completions by gross floor area (GFA) grew by 25% YoY, and large-scale sales recognition drove revenue up by 19% YoY. The key project Peking Mansion recorded a higher booked sales value (RMB10.2bn in 2025 vs RMB7.6bn in 2024). This, combined with concentrated sales recognition of high-quality projects acquired in 2022 such as Wenyuan Mansion, Xingyu BEIJING, and Royal Yanyuan, drove property development GPM up by 4.7pp YoY to 18.8%. In addition, the rising stock prices of Guosen Securities and Micro-Tech (Nanjing) contributed to a total of RMB1,160mn in gains from fair value changes and investment income (+RMB1,310mn YoY). However, as the property market remained in a bottoming phase, and home prices in Beijing pulled back in 2H25, the company charged large-amount provisions for asset impairment losses again in 4Q25 following 3Q25. For 2025, annual provisions were RMB3.4bn (+RMB660mn YoY). This caused the company to post an attributable net loss for the second consecutive year, although the loss has narrowed.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As of end-2025, contract liabilities dropped by 55% YoY to RMB13.6bn. Given relatively limited resources pending settlement, we estimate the company's booked revenue over the next 1-2 years could rely more on the destocking of completed properties. Based on this, we lower our revenue forecasts. In addition, balancing the quality of land reserves and the property market's bottoming trend, we raise estimates for asset impairment losses, but still expect asset impairment losses to narrow compared with 2025. Overall, we cut our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 62/40% to RMB315/516mn (previous: RMB840/857mn) and add our 2028 forecast of RMB642mn, with 2026E BVPS at RMB9.95. We value the stock at 0.60x 2026E PB, a discount to its peers' average of 0.66x on Wind consensus to factor in heavy inventory impairment pressure on earnings. Our target price is RMB5.97 (previous: RMB7.42, based on 0.65x 2026E PB).
Risks: local market risks in Beijing; progress in shantytown renovations and primary development projects trailing our expectations; earnings fluctuations caused by asset impairments, equity investments, and the share of minority interests.