中盐化工10月29日发布三季报：Q3实现收入32.1亿元，同环比-15%/-14%，归母净利1.33亿元，同环比+72%/-65%。前三季度公司实现收入95.7亿元（同比-23%），归母净利5.74亿元（同比-32%），扣非净利5.41亿元（同比-38%）。公司Q3归母净利低于我们的前瞻预期（3.00亿元），系多数主营产品销量单价同环比下行。考虑公司具备盐化工一体化生产能力，行业低景气下有望保持成本领先，维持“增持”评级。
　　三季度纯碱行业景气下行，多数主营产品销量单价同环比承压
　　受行业新增产能以及下游玻璃需求偏弱影响，24Q3纯碱销量同比+1.6%/环比-1.5%至97.5万吨，营收同比-16%/环比-9.8%至15.6亿元，均价同比-17%/环比-8.5%至1597元/吨。24Q3烧碱/PVC/糊树脂销量同比-2.5%/-6.3%/-15%至8.9/10.2/4.8万吨（环比-11%/-13%/-13%），营收同比-7.6%/-13%/-8.6%至2.1/4.9/3.2亿元（环比-13%/-16%/-14%），均价同比-5.2%/-6.5%/+7.8%至0.23/0.48/0.67万元/吨（环比-2.2%/-3.1%/-1.0%）。多数产品销量单价同环比下跌，公司Q3综合毛利率同环比-4.6/-9.2pct至17.4%，前三季度综合毛利率同比-4.8pct至20.1%。
　　纯碱/PVC受供需影响仍承压，烧碱价格小幅改善
　　据隆众数据，10月29日轻质/重质纯碱参考价1513/1625元/吨，较Q3末-0.8%/+0.8%，价格下行至历史低位水平，氨碱法/联碱法（双吨）价差486/168元/吨，较Q3末-3.4%/-23%，系成本端原盐价格较高压缩价差空间。99%片碱/电石法PVC价格0.37/0.51万元/吨，较Q3末+19%/+1%，烧碱价格受下游氧化铝需求带动而小幅改善。
　　公司新增多个技改项目，降低生产能耗并巩固成本优势
　　公司同日发布多个技改公告，计划投资3.4亿元改造热电机组降低煤耗，投资6.3亿元建设1.8MW风电+光伏项目用于补充自发电力，投资0.85亿元改造炭粉烘干窑，资金来源为贷款+自有资金。截至Q3末公司在建工程9.5亿元，较年初+3.5亿元。公司持续降低生产能耗，不断巩固成本优势。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑盐化工产品景气度较低，我们下调纯碱/PVC等产品销量和单价预期，预计公司24-26年归母净利润8.5/12/15亿元（前值12/15/17亿元），同比增速-26%/+44%/+23%，对应EPS为0.58/0.83/1.02元，参考可比公司25年Wind一致预期平均10xPE，考虑公司不断优化生产能耗，成本优势有望巩固，给予公司25年12xPE，目标价9.96元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期；纯碱行业新增产能释放导致格局恶化。

1H24 attributable NP fell 42.2% yoy to RMB441mn; OVERWEIGHT
CNSIG Chemical has released its interim results, reporting revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring attributable NP of RMB6,360/441/416mn for 1H24 (-26.5/-42.2/-48.0% yoy) with 2Q24 attributable NP/recurring NP at RMB384/ 393mn (+50.3/73.9% yoy, or 583/1,620% qoq). We project its 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB1.2/1.5/1.7bn, with EPS of RMB0.82/1.00/1.14. We value the stock at 10x 2024E PE, at par with its peers’ average on Wind consensus, for our target price of RMB8.20 (previous: RMB9.27). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1H24: soft performance of main products in yoy terms
In 1H24, the company’s soda ash sales volume/revenue was 1.55mn tonnes/ RMB2.8bn (-30/-43% yoy), with ASP down 18% yoy to RMB1,830/tonne on capacity additions in the sector. In 2Q24, its soad ash sales volume/revenue was 0.99mn tonnes/RMB1.73bn (-2.7/-15% yoy, +78/57% qoq). In 1H24, the company sold caustic soda/PVC/paste resin of 188k/216k/99.5k tonnes (-1.3/+3.6/+0.3% yoy), with revenues of RMB450/1,060/690mn (-13/-2.8/+6.1% yoy) and ASPs of RMB2.4k/4.9k/6.9k per tonne (-12/-6/+5.8% yoy). Fine chemicals revenue stood at RMB410mn in 1H24 (-18.7% yoy). Subsidiaries Qinghai Fatou/Chinasalt Kunshan/Kunlun Soda Industry logged operating profits of RMB175/123/343mn for 1H24 (-74/-67/-59% yoy).
Sound progress in new projects to improve competitiveness
Per baiinfo.com, on 25 July 2024, reference ASPs of light/heavy soda ash were RMB1,837/1,995 per tonne (-3/-5% vs end-June); price-cost spreads of ammonia soda/combined-soda processes were RMB837/553 per tonne (-7/-12% vs end-June); and ASPs for caustic soda flakes/PVC produced by calcium carbide process were RMB3.1k/5.4k per tonne, at five-year lows due to the weak downstream demand, pointing to room for recovery, in our view. Since the company acquired Qinghai Fatou in September 2021, its salt chemical business has been improving backed by its mature soda ash business. As at end-1H24, the company’s construction in progress amounted to RMB730mn.
Risks: weak downstream demand; a deteriorating competitive landscape due to rising new capacity in soda ash.

　　24H1归母净利润4.4亿元/同比-42%，维持“增持”评级
　　中盐化工7月25日发布半年报，24H1实现营收63.6亿元，同比-26.5%，归母净利润4.41亿元（扣非后4.16亿元），同比-42.2%（扣非后同比-48.0%）；其中24Q2归母净利润3.84亿元（扣非后3.93亿元），同比+50.3%/环比+583%（扣非同比+73.9%/环比+1620%）。我们预计公司24-26年归母净利12/15/17亿元，对应EPS为0.82/1.00/1.14元，参考可比公司24年Wind一致预期平均10xPE，给予公司24年10xPE，目标价8.2元，维持“增持”评级。
　　24H1主营产品景气同比承压，纯碱Q2产销环比显著增长
　　24H1纯碱销量155万吨（同比-30%），营收28亿元（同比-43%），受行业新产能投放等影响，均价1830元/吨（同比-18%），其中24Q2销量99万吨（同比-2.7%/环比+78%），营收17.3亿元（同比-15%/环比+57%）。24H1烧碱/PVC/糊树脂销量同比-1.3%/+3.6%/+0.3%至18.8/21.6/9.95万吨，营收同比-13%/-2.8%/+6.1%至4.5/10.6/6.9亿元，均价同比-12%/-6%/+5.8%至0.24/0.49/0.69万元/吨；精细化工品24H1营收4.1亿元（同比-18.7%）。子公司发投碱业/中盐昆山/昆仑碱业营业利润同比-74%/-67%/-59%至1.75/1.23/3.43亿元。24H1综合毛利率yoy-4.7pct至21.4%，Q2为26.6%（yoy+3.4pct/qoq12.5pct）。
　　纯碱和氯碱产品需求静待复苏，在建项目提质增效提升竞争力
　　据百川盈孚，7月25日轻质/重质纯碱参考价1837/1995元/吨，较6月末-3%/-5%，氨碱法/联碱法价差837/553元/吨，较6月末-7%/-12%；99%片碱/电石法PVC价格0.31/0.54万元/吨，受下游需求偏弱影响，价格处于近5年相对低位，整体景气待改善。公司自2021年9月收购发投碱业以来，依托自身在纯碱领域的经营能力，盐化工业务不断优化。24H1末公司在建工程7.3亿元，公司加快推动青海两碱动态平衡生态环保提升改造项目建设等，持续在环保、节能及技术拓展领域推进。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期；纯碱行业新增产能释放导致格局恶化。