天然碱项目战略级布局，成本优势重塑竞争格局
　　事件：2026年5月15日，公司公告拟投资建设500万吨/年天然碱矿产资源综合开发项目，总投资252.83亿元，项目具体情况如下：
　　（1）项目落地后有望打开公司成长空间。项目位于内蒙古通辽市奈曼旗，公司已于2025年6月以68.09亿元竞得该地区天然碱采矿权，天然碱矿物储量达14.47亿吨，为国内已探明规模最大的天然碱矿。产品方案包括3条重质纯碱生产线（每条120万吨/年，共360万吨/年）、1条轻质纯碱生产线（120万吨/年）和1条小苏打生产线（20万吨/年），投产后公司纯碱总产能将从现有的390万吨/年大幅提升至890万吨/年。
　　（2）股权结构与资金安排。项目实施主体中盐碱业股权结构为中盐化工持股51%、山东海化持股29%、蒙盐化工持股10%、国调基金持股10%，80亿元自有资金已由各方同比例出资到位。项目申请银行贷款172.83亿元（占比68.36%），以2025年末数据测算，项目建成后公司资产负债率将从37.55%上升至约62%，财务杠杆显著提升。项目计划2026年6月开工，建设期24个月，预计2028年中投产，财务内部收益率（税后）8.01%。
　　（3）项目落地后有望显著优化成本曲线。天然碱法制碱相比传统氨碱法、联碱法具有显著的成本和环保优势，符合《西部地区鼓励类产业目录（2025年本）》鼓励方向，且在"碳达峰、碳中和"战略下，天然碱新增产能不受政策限制。2025年末国内天然碱产能占比约22.5%，公司借助此次大规模扩张，有望将天然碱权益产能提升至行业前列，实现由氨碱法为主向"氨碱+联碱+天然碱"三法并举的产业格局重构，构建长期差异化竞争壁垒。
　　盈利预测及投资建议
　　我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为1.24、3.08、7.14亿元，EPS分别为0.08、0.21、0.49元，当前股价对应PE分别为95、38、16倍。中长期看，公司天然碱项目有望于28年投产，天然碱工艺成本明显低于其他工艺，公司成长空间进一步打开，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　纯碱行业景气持续低迷、财务杠杆大幅攀升、行业竞争加剧等风险。

　　联碱装置拖累业绩，吉兰泰天然碱探矿项目开工，维持“买入”评级
　　2025年公司实现营业收入113.43亿元，同比-12.02%，实现归母净利润7,394.94万元，同比-85.75%。2025年Q4单季度，公司实现归母净利润1,611.46万元，环比+214.78%。2026年Q1，公司实现归母净利润-1.54亿元，同环比大幅由盈转亏。纯碱价格持续探底，公司子公司中盐昆山装置拖累业绩，现已停产，2026年内或随着装置停产进一步减亏。当前纯碱价格下探至历史底部，我们下调公司2026-2027年并新增2028年盈利预测，预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为1.02（-0.50）、2.08（-1.38）、4.59亿元，EPS分别为0.07（-0.03）、0.14（-0.09）、0.31元，当前股价对应PE分别为116.5、57.2、25.9倍，考虑到公司通辽天然碱项目一期或于2027年投产，打开未来成长空间，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　中盐昆山联碱装置拖累2025年业绩，2026年Q1多产品下跌致公司深度亏损
　　根据百川盈孚数据，2025年昆山重质纯碱均价为1,503元/吨，同比-35.85%。根据公司公告，中盐昆山2025年H1、2025年全年净利润分别为-1.23、-3.14亿元，随着2025H2纯碱价格下跌，中盐昆山亏损加剧。同时2026年3月27日，因其《安全生产许可证》到期，中盐昆山即日起暂时停产。若中盐昆山持续停产，2026年公司有望减亏。2026年Q1，青海发投重碱均价为1277元/吨，同比-20.58%，环比-0.26%；金属钠均价为14,933元/吨，同比+9.71%，环比-6.67%，纯碱价格处于历史底部，金属钠价格环比下跌，综合拖累公司Q1业绩。
　　通辽项目溶采实验进展顺利，吉兰泰天然碱探矿项目开工，公司成长可期
　　根据中盐内蒙古化工公众号报道，目前通辽项目溶采实验已经结束，取得了决定性胜利，通辽天然碱矿核心指标完全达标，矿藏质量达到了大规模工业化开采的“准入”标准，且项自2025年7月起的24个月之内要完成投产，36个月之内实现年产纯碱500万吨的生产能力。另外，4月17日，中盐内蒙古化工吉兰泰天然碱矿探矿普查项目顺利开工，为后续资源详查提供可靠的依据，公司成长可期。
　　风险提示：产能出清不及预期、新建项目进展不及预期、原料价格波动风险。

　　投资要点
　　中盐化工（600328）是中盐集团旗下唯一上市公司，实际控制人为国资委，拥有纯碱390万吨/年、PVC40万吨/年、烧碱36万吨/年、金属钠6.5万吨/年（全球产能最大）等多条核心生产线，形成了"盐-煤-石灰石"一体化的产业布局。公司依托内蒙古阿拉善及青海柴达木盆地总储量超3亿吨的原盐资源，叠加主要生产基地所处区域煤炭、电力、石灰石等配套资源丰富的区位优势，劳动力和能源成本显著低于行业平均水平。2024年盐化工业务营收和毛利占比均超过95%，其中纯碱产品营收占比51%、毛利占比57%，为公司核心业务板块。近年受纯碱景气度周期性下行影响，2024年公司总营收128.9亿元（同比-21%），归母净利润5.2亿元（同比-56%），业绩承压但成本优势依然稳固。
　　纯碱下游需求以玻璃为主体，2024年平板玻璃、光伏玻璃、日用玻璃合计消费占比达75%，其中光伏玻璃占比从2020年的8%快速提升至2025年的21%，成为第二大应用领域。供给端，2025年国内纯碱有效产能已突破4400万吨（同比+5.79%），新增产能压力较大，纯碱价差已跌至接近2020年历史底部水平。截至2025年8月，联碱法、氨碱法、天然碱法工艺成本分别为1246、1395、679元/吨，当前价格环境下仅天然碱工艺盈利尚可。参考海外经验，美国凭借丰富天然碱资源长期主导全球纯碱出口（贸易量占全球约50%），天然碱在全球纯碱竞争中已占据主导地位。随着行业供需失衡加剧，高成本产能面临逐步出清，低成本天然碱工艺有望持续脱颖而出，行业格局将形成"以天然碱法为主导、优质合成碱法为补充"的稳定态势。
　　公司以68.09亿元竞得内蒙古通辽市奈曼旗大沁他拉天然碱采矿权，天然碱矿物量达14.47亿吨，系国内目前发现储量最大的天然碱资源，采矿权期限30年。天然碱一期设计产能500万吨/年，按"两年投产、三年达产"目标推进，预计2027年下半年投产。建成后公司纯碱年产能将从现有390万吨跃升至890万吨，成为国内纯碱行业绝对龙头。根据公司公告，天然碱项目总投资约211.3亿元，投产后单吨纯碱完全成本约822元/吨，显著低于氨碱法和联碱法工艺成本。公司引入山东海化（持股29%）、蒙盐集团及国调基金二期作为战略投资者，中盐化工持股51%保持控制权，实现"技术+业务协同+资源整合+资金实力"的强强联合。公司将成为国内唯一同时布局氨碱法、联碱法、天然碱法三种工艺路线的纯碱企业，"合成碱龙头成本+天然碱增量产能"双轮驱动，成长空间进一步打开。
　　盈利预测及投资建议
　　我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为0.8、2.1、3.7亿元，EPS分别为0.06、0.14、0.25元，当前股价对应PE分别为149、59、34倍。中长期看，公司天然碱项目有望于27年投产，天然碱工艺成本明显低于其他工艺，公司成长空间进一步打开，首次覆盖，给予公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：
　　能源及原材料价格波动风险、外围宏观环境不确定风险、天然碱项目开发进展不及预期等风险

For 1H26, revenue fell by 19% YoY to RMB4.89bn, attributable net loss was RMB270mn, and recurring net loss was RMB300mn; for 2Q26, attributable net loss was RMB120mn and recurring net loss was RMB130mn. Considering the company owns China's largest natural soda ash facility and its natural soda ash projects under construction are expected to come on line in 2027-2028, we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Salt chemicals: S/D mismatch widened in 1H26
For soda ash, sales volume fell by 5% YoY to 2.05mn tonnes in 1H26, while revenue declined by 23% YoY to RMB2.04bn. Concentrated commissioning of new industry facilities worsened the S/D mismatch, putting clear pressure on soda ash revenue and earnings; for 2Q26, soda ash sales volume fell by 13% YoY but rose by 5% QoQ to 1.05mn tonnes, while ASP fell by 18% YoY and was flat QoQ at RMB996/tonne. For PVC resin, sales volume/revenue were flat YoY at 210kt/RMB890mn in 1H26. Weak demand from downstream building materials kept the business climate near the bottom; for 2Q26, PVC resin sales volume fell by 8% YoY but rose by 1% QoQ to 105kt, while ASP rose by 6% YoY and 10% QoQ to RMB4,442/tonne, supported by ethylene costs. For caustic soda, sales volume increased by 6% YoY to 187kt in 1H26, while revenue declined by 23% YoY to RMB410mn, as weaker downstream alumina demand drove a sharp fall in caustic soda prices; for 2Q26, caustic soda sales volume increased by 9% YoY and 2% QoQ to 95kt, while ASP declined by 42% YoY and 2% QoQ to RMB2,164/tonne. For 1H26, blended GPM fell by 7pp YoY to 3.5%, while the overall expense ratio increased by 0.9pp YoY to 8.2%. For 2Q26, GPM was 5.0% (-7/+3pp YoY/QoQ), and the overall expense ratio was 8.8% (+0.9/+1pp YoY/QoQ).
Kunshan soda ash facility closed
According to Oilchem, light/heavy soda ash prices were RMB988/1,125 per tonne on 21 August, down by 17/10% from the beginning of the year, and the price spreads of ammonia-soda process/combined-soda process (dual tonnes) were RMB151/97 per tonne, down by RMB250/56 per tonne from the beginning of the year. Concentrated commissioning of new industry facilities and weak demand from downstream photovoltaic glass and float glass suggest that a recovery in the soda ash business climate still needs time. According to the 2026 interim report, the company's 5mn tpa natural soda ash resource development project is progressing in an orderly manner. Its subsidiary CNSG Kunshan, which owns 850ktpa combined-soda process soda ash facilities, suspended production in April because its work safety permit expired. The company is optimizing high-cost synthetic soda ash facilities, concentrating on the cost advantages of natural soda ash, and waiting for an inflection point in the business climate.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering worsening soda ash S/D mismatch and potential near-term earnings pressure, we cut our earnings forecasts and lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 334/80/22% to RMB-250/+70/+600mn from previous RMB110/360/770mn. We project 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB-0.17/+0.05/+0.41 and BVPS of RMB7.98/8.12/8.50. We value the stock at 1.28x 2027E PB, in line with its peers' average on Wind consensus. As peers trade at a higher average 2027E PB ratio, we lift our target price to RMB10.39 (previous: RMB9.96, based on 1.21x 2026E PB, at par with its peers' average). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: prolonged weakness in downstream demand, natural soda ash project progress trailing our expectation.

　　中盐化工于8月25日发布2026中报：26上半年实现营业收入48.9亿元，同比-19%，归母净利润-2.7亿元，同比转亏，扣非净利润-3.0亿元，同比转亏；其中Q2实现归母净利润-1.2亿元，扣非净利润-1.3亿元。考虑公司拥有全国最大的天然碱资源，在建天然碱项目有望于27-28年投产，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　上半年盐化工供需错配加剧，纯碱/氯碱景气度承压下行
　　纯碱方面，公司上半年销量同比-5%至205万吨，营收同比-23%至20.4亿元，行业新增产能集中投放导致供需错配加剧，纯碱营收/盈利承压明显；其中纯碱Q2销量同比-13%/环比+5%至105万吨，均价同比-18%/环比持平至996元/吨。PVC树脂方面，上半年销量同比持平至21万吨，营收同比持平至8.9亿元，下游建材等需求延续偏弱致行业景气度仍处底部；其中PVC树脂Q2销量同比-8%/环比+1%至10.5万吨，乙烯成本支撑下PVC均价同比+6%/环比+10%至4442元/吨。烧碱方面，上半年销量同比+6%至18.7万吨，营收同比-23%至4.1亿元，下游氧化铝需求回落导致烧碱价格大幅下滑；其中烧碱Q2销量同比+9%/环比+2%至9.5万吨，均价同比-42%/环比-2%至2164元/吨。26H1公司综合毛利率同比-7pct至3.5%，期间费用率同比+0.9pct至8.2%，其中Q2毛利率同比-7/环比+3pct至5.0%，期间费用率同比+0.9/环比+1pct至8.8%。
　　公司关停中盐昆山纯碱产能，聚焦天然碱项目建设
　　据隆众资讯，8月21日轻质纯碱/重质纯碱价格988/1125元/吨，较年初-17%/-10%，氨碱法/联碱法（双吨）价差151/97元/吨，较年初-250/-56元，行业新增产能集中投放，叠加下游光伏玻璃、平板玻璃需求偏弱，纯碱景气静待复苏。据26中报，公司500万吨/年天然碱资源开发项目有序推进，子公司中盐昆山（拥有联碱法纯碱产能85万吨/年）受安全生产许可证到期影响，已于4月停产。公司优化高成本合成碱产能，集中发力天然碱成本优势，等待行业景气拐点到来。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑纯碱行业供需错配加剧，公司业绩或面临短期承压，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为-2.5/0.7/6.0亿元（前值为1.1/3.6/7.7亿元，下调幅度334%/80%/22%），对应EPS为-0.17/0.05/0.41元，BVPS为7.98/8.12/8.50元。结合可比公司27年Wind一致预期平均1.28xPB，给予公司27年1.28xPB，目标价10.39元（上调目标价原因系可比公司27年PB有所上升，公司目标价前值9.96元，对应26年1.21xPBvs可比公司1.21xPB），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷；天然碱项目进度不及预期。

CNSIG Chemical issued an announcement on 15 May, planning to invest RMB25.28bn through its controlling subsidiary to build a 5mtpa natural soda ash project, with construction scheduled to start in June 2026 and a construction period of 24 months. Considering that after the completion of the natural soda ash project, the company's soda ash production capacity will rank among the top in the country, likely consolidating its edge in scale and cost, we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Natural soda ash project scheduled for construction in June
Per company announcement, as the solution mining test for the natural soda ash project was completed at the end of April, the company plans to invest RMB25.28bn through its controlling subsidiary (with a 51% stake), CNSIG Inner Mongolia Alkali Industry, to build a 5mtpa natural soda ash project. The funding sources are RMB8bn from its own funds and RMB17.28bn from bank loans. The project is located in Naiman Banner, Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia, with mineral reserves of 1.447bn tonnes (including 521mn tonnes of resources with a salt content of ≤9.54% and 926mn tonnes of associated natural soda ash minerals), making it the largest natural soda ash mine in China. At the same time, the project's production water comes from the Tongliao branch line of the Northwest Liaoning Water Supply Project, with an allocated water volume of 38.02mn cbm per year for Naiman Banner, and fuel coal comes from the Chifeng area and is transported via a dedicated railway line. Therefore, the project has notable edges in production scale, as well as good advantages in water and energy supply.
Production capacity edge to sharpen upon completion
Per the announcement, the company currently has a nominal soda ash production capacity of 3.9mn tonnes and an attributable capacity of approximately 3.0mn tonnes. After the 5mtpa natural soda ash project is put into operation, the company's total attributable soda ash production capacity will be approximately 5.5mtpa, ranking among the top in the country. According to an announcement in July 2025, the winning bid price for the natural soda ash mining rights was approximately RMB6.8bn. Considering the solution mining test and capacity construction, the total investment in the project is over RMB32bn. With the company holding a 51% stake (per our calculations from the announcement), the listed company's asset-liability ratio may rise from 37.45% at the end of 1Q26 to 61.99%, and the short-term asset-liability ratio may be affected to some extent.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the sheer volume of investment for the project, which may increase the company's financing costs in the short term, we slightly lower our 2026-2027 earnings forecasts, and based on the expectation that the project will gradually ramp up production in 2028, we raise our 2028 earnings forecast. We project the company's 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP to be RMB110/360/770mn (previous: RMB130/410/600mn, adjustments of -17%/-11%/+28%), corresponding to EPS of RMB0.07/0.25/0.53 and BVPS of RMB8.23/8.44/8.84. Considering the company's peers' average 2026E PB of 1.21x on Wind consensus, we assign a 1.21x 2026E PB, corresponding to a target price of RMB9.96 (previous: RMB10.55, at 1.28x 2026E PB vs peers' 1.28x PB). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: weaker downstream demand than we expect; development of natural ash projects missing our estimates.

CNSIG Chemical has posted its 2025 and 1Q26 results on 29 April:2025 revenue was RMB11.3bn(-12%YoY),attributable NP was RMB74mn(-86%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB4mn(-99%YoY);for 1Q26,attributable NP was-RMB150mn(-993%YoY,-1,058%QoQ),and recurring NP was-RMB170mn(-3,037%YoY,-3,670%QoQ).The company plans a2025 year-end dividend of RMB37mn,and combined with share buybacks of RMB67mn,the total dividend and buyback for the full year is RMB104mn,accounting for 141%of 2025 attributable NP.Given its high integration in the salt chemical industry and our positive view on the cost advantage of its natural soda ash project,we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Oversupply in pure soda ash led to asharp decline in profits
In terms of soda ash,driven by export volume growth,the company's 2025 sales volume increased by 18%YoY to 4.32mn tonnes,but industry capacity expansion led to price declines,with soda ash revenue down 15%YoY to RMB4.9bn and GPM down 17pp YoY to 2.0%.For 2025,sales volumes of caustic soda/PVC/paste resin were 386k/422k/222k tonnes(0%/-3%/+9%YoY),with revenue of RMB1.05/1.77/1.33bn(+10%/-15%/-4%YoY).Caustic soda prices improved YoY driven by alumina demand,while PVC/paste resin prices remained weak under the influence of loose S/D dynamics.Affected by the decline in soda ash profitability,the company's 2025 overall GPM decreased by 8pp YoY to 9.5%,and the expense ratio decreased by 0.56pp YoY to 8.0%.
1Q26:prices of pure soda/chlor-alkali stayed low
In 1Q26,the company's soda ash sales volume was 1.0mn tonnes(+5%YoY,-5%QoQ).With the concentrated release of new industry capacity,soda ash prices remained low,with soda ash revenue down 18%YoY and 9%QoQ to RMB990mn,and ASP down 22%YoY and 4%QoQ to RMB994/tonne.In 1Q26,sales volumes of caustic soda/PVC/paste resin were 92k/105k/59k tonnes(+3%/+11%/+10%YoY,-24%/+4%/+4%QoQ).The YoY increase in chlor-alkali product sales volumes was due to the export tax rebate in 1Q26 boosting pre-emptive export demand.Revenue from caustic soda/PVC/paste resin was RMB200/420/330mn(-2%/+3%/-4%YoY,-27%/+5%/+4%QoQ).Affected by the decline in alumina demand and weak building materials demand,most chlor-alkali products remained at low business cycle levels.In 1Q26,the company's overall GPM was 2.1%(-7pp YoY,-4pp QoQ),and the expense ratio was 7.7%(+0.9pp YoY,+0.1pp QoQ).
Pure soda ash business climate yet to rebound
Per Oilchem.net,on 24 April,light/heavy soda ash prices were RMB1,195/1,260 per tonne,down 1/0.4%vs end-March.Due to the concentrated release of new industry capacity,prices continued to decline,with ammonia-soda process/dual-process(dual-tonne)spreads at RMB377/250 per tonne,down RMB19/90 per tonne vs end-March.The loose supply and demand situation for soda ash continues,awaiting abusiness climate recovery.According to the 2025 annual report,the company completed the solution mining test for the Tongliao 5mn tonne natural soda ash mine by end-March 2026.With the gradual progress of natural soda ash mine development,the company's scale advantage and cost competitiveness in the soda ash field should in our view be further strengthened.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As the business climate for the soda ash industry remains at alow level,we mainly lower our soda ash price expectations,trimming our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts to RMB130/410/600mn(2026-2027 forecasts previously at RMB510/800mn,downward revisions of 75%/49%),with EPS of RMB0.09/0.28/0.41 and BVPS of RMB8.24/8.48/8.75.We value the stock at 1.28x 2026E PB,at par with its peers'average on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB10.55(previous:RMB8.96,based on 1.07x 2025E PB vs peers'1.07x PB).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:weaker downstream demand than we expect;development of natural ash projects missing our estimates.

　　中盐化工于5月15日发布公告，计划通过控股子公司投资252.8亿元建设500万吨/年天然碱项目，拟于26年6月开工，建设期24个月。考虑天然碱项目建成后，纯碱产能居全国前列，规模和成本优势有望巩固，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　公司计划6月开工建设天然碱项目，矿区供水/供能具备较好优势
　　据公告，基于该天然碱项目4月底已完成溶采试验，公司拟通过控股子公司（持股比例51%）中盐内蒙古碱业投资252.8亿元建设500万吨/年天然碱项目。资金来源为自有资金80亿元，银行贷款172.8亿元。该项目位于内蒙古通辽市奈曼旗，矿物量14.47亿吨（含盐量≤9.54%的资源量5.21亿吨，共伴生天然碱矿物量9.26亿吨），是国内规模最大的天然碱矿。同时，项目生产用水来自辽西北供水内蒙古通辽支线工程，为奈曼旗分配水量3802万方/年，燃料煤来自赤峰地区且通过火车专用线运输。因此该项目产能规模优势明显，且供水、供能优势亦较好。
　　项目投产后公司产能规模优势扩大，短期负债率或受一定影响
　　据公告，当前公司拥有纯碱名义产能390万吨，权益产能约300万吨，500万吨/年天然碱项目投产后，公司合计拥有纯碱权益产能约550万吨，规模居国内前列。据25年7月公告，天然碱采矿权竞拍价约68亿元，结合溶采试验、产能建设等，项目总投资额在320亿元以上。其中公司持股比例51%，据公告测算，上市公司资产负债率或由26Q1末37.45%上升至61.99%，短期资产负债率或受到一定影响。
　　供需宽松下纯碱价格偏弱，天然碱项目助力公司成本竞争力增强
　　据隆众资讯，5月15日轻质纯碱/重质纯碱价格1183/1260元/吨，较年初-1.5%/-1.2%，行业供需宽松下价格仍偏弱，氨碱法/联碱法（双吨）价差338/376元/吨，较年初-78/+208元/吨，联碱法价差扩大原因系副产物氯化铵价格受氮肥影响上涨。据隆众资讯，天然碱工艺的单吨生产成本在600-800元/吨，较合成碱工艺具备优势，投产天然碱项目后，公司在纯碱行业的规模优势和成本竞争力有望进一步增强。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑该项目投资额较大，短期或提升公司融资成本，我们小幅下调26-27年盈利预测，并基于该项目有望于28年逐步放量，上调28年盈利预测。预计公司26-28年归母净利润1.1/3.6/7.7亿元（前值为1.3/4.1/6.0亿元，调整幅度-17%/-11%/+28%），对应EPS为0.07/0.25/0.53元，对应BVPS为8.23/8.44/8.84元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均1.21xPB，给予公司26年1.21倍PB估值，目标价9.96元（前值为10.55元，对应26年1.28xPBvs可比公司1.28xPB），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷；天然碱项目进度不及预期。