公司26H1实现营收/归母净利/扣非净利118.7/2.5/2.2亿元，同比-4.8%/+15.3%/-13.4%；其中26Q2实现营收/归母净利/扣非净利56.6/1.8/1.3亿元，同比-7.2%/+141.4%/+106.0%。26Q2收入同比降幅较26Q1（-2.5%）扩大，但利润端大幅改善，26Q2毛利率19.5%（同比+0.4pct），毛销差8.5%（同比+1.1pct），主业盈利能力有所改善，26Q2归母净利率3.3%（同比+2.0pct）。26Q2归母净利在低基数之下实现同比高增，主因销售费用同比下降（广告投入下降）、财务费用同比下降（银行借款利息减少）、资产处置收益增加（新莱特出售新西兰北岛资产）。展望来看，公司坚守“新鲜”战略，持续推进低温奶的全国化布局，维持“增持”评级。
　　26Q2液态奶经营承压，其他乳制品实现收入正增
　　26H1液态奶/其他乳制品/牧业产品营收分别为59.1/43.9/10.1亿元，同比-10.5%/-1.4%/+95.8%；其中液态奶26Q2营收28.3亿元、同比-14.7%，同比降幅较26Q1（-6.3%）扩大，主因随心订平台第三方产品销售收入下降、乳制品行业竞争仍然激烈等；26Q2其他乳制品/牧业产品营收分别为21.2/4.4亿元、同比+4.4%/+42.6%。分地区看，上海26H1/26Q2营收分别为30.2/14.5亿元、同比-13.4%/-18.6%，大本营市场压力较大；外地营收46.8/22.4亿元、同比-6.1%/-8.4%；境外营收40.6/19.2亿元、同比+3.2%/+4.2%，主因新莱特经营改善。渠道端，26H1直营/经销商渠道营收分别为25.2/91.6亿元，同比-8.4%/-4.3%，经销商数量呈现净减少。此外，新莱特26H1营收40.8亿元、净利润-0.6亿元，资本结构优化后，预计新莱特下半年将深耕核心客户、拓展中国及东南亚市场，推动减亏增效。
　　Q2毛利率改善/费用率压缩/资产处置收益带动归母利润率同比回升
　　毛利率26H1/26Q2分别为17.6%/19.5%（同比-1.3/+0.4pct）；销售费用率26H1/26Q2分别为10.1%/11.0%（同比-0.8/-0.7pct），26H1广告费同比-30.1%；对应毛销差26H1/26Q2分别为7.5%/8.5%（同比-0.5/+1.1pct）。26H1财务费用同比-44.7%，主因银行借款利息减少。此外，26Q2公司确认资产处置收益约1.0亿元，主因新莱特以1.7亿美元向Abbott出售新西兰北岛资产，已于4月完成交割，同时由于新莱特大宗商品减值，公司计提资产减值损失约0.7亿元，两者净贡献约0.3亿元；26H1营业外支出中的生物资产淘汰损失约0.9亿元、同比减少约0.1亿元；最终26H1/26Q2公司归母净利率分别为2.1%/3.3%（同比+0.4/+2.0pct）。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑乳制品行业需求表现平淡，公司液奶业务仍有一定的经营压力，我们下调26-28年收入预测至233.9/237.9/245.1亿元（较前次-4%/-6%/-7%），另外考虑行业竞争情况与乳制品税收政策调整，我们预计26-28年EPS分别为0.25/0.30/0.36元（较前次-28%/-37%/-31%）。参考可比公司26年平均PE29x（Wind一致预期），给予26年29xPE，目标价7.25元（前次8.16元），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：原材料价格波动，宏观经济低于预期，食品安全问题。

Bright Dairy recorded 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit of RMB11.87/0.25/0.22bn(-4.8/+15.3/-13.4%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit came in at RMB5.66/0.18/0.13bn(-7.2/+141.4/+106.0%YoY).The YoY revenue decline widened in 2Q26 from-2.5%in 1Q26,but profitability improved significantly,with 2Q26 gross margin at 19.5%(+0.4pp YoY)and gross margin less selling expense ratio at 8.5%(+1.1pp YoY),reflecting better core profitability.The 2Q26 attributable net margin was 3.3%(+2.0pp YoY).The high YoY growth in 2Q26 attributable net profit was driven by alow base,lower selling expenses(reduced advertising spending),lower financial expenses(lower bank loan interest),and higher asset disposal gains(Synlait's sale of North Island assets in New Zealand).Looking ahead,the company adheres to its"freshness"strategy and continues to advance the nationwide expansion of chilled dairy products.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2Q26:liquid milk operation strained
In 1H26,revenue from liquid milk/other dairy products/farming products was RMB5.91/4.39/1.01bn(-10.5/-1.4/+95.8%YoY).Liquid milk revenue in 2Q26 was RMB2.83bn(-14.7%YoY),with the YoY decline widening from-6.3%in 1Q26,due to lower third-party product sales on the Suixinding platform and still-intense competition in the dairy industry.In 2Q26,other dairy products/farming products revenue was RMB2.12/0.44bn(up 4.4/42.6%YoY).By region,Shanghai revenue in 1H26/2Q26 was RMB3.02/1.45bn(-13.4/-18.6%YoY),indicating significant pressure in the home market.Revenue from other domestic regions was RMB4.68/2.24bn(-6.1/-8.4%YoY).Overseas revenue was RMB4.06/1.92bn(+3.2/+4.2%YoY),owing to improved operations at Synlait.By channel,direct sales/distributor revenue in 1H26 was RMB2.52/9.16bn(-8.4/-4.3%YoY),with anet decrease in the number of distributors.In addition,Synlait recorded 1H26 revenue of RMB4.08bn and anet loss of RMB60mn.Following the optimization of its capital structure,Synlait could deepen relationships with core customers and expand into the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets in 2H26 to reduce losses and improve efficiency.
2Q26 attributable NPM up YoY on multiple factors
Gross margin in 1H26/2Q26 was 17.6/19.5%(-1.3/+0.4pp YoY).Selling expense ratio in 1H26/2Q26 was 10.1/11.0%(-0.8/-0.7pp YoY),with 1H26 advertising expenses down 30.1%YoY.Correspondingly,gross margin less selling expense ratio in 1H26/2Q26 was 7.5/8.5%(-0.5/+1.1pp YoY).Financial expenses in 1H26 fell 44.7%YoY,due to lower bank loan interest.In addition,the company recognized asset disposal gains of c.RMB100mn in 2Q26 from Synlait's sale of North Island assets in New Zealand to Abbott for USD170mn,which was completed in April.Meanwhile,due to commodity impairment at Synlait,the company recorded asset impairment losses of c.RMB70mn,resulting in anet contribution of c.RMB30mn.Biological asset elimination losses in non-operating expenses in 1H26 were c.RMB90mn,down c.RMB10mn YoY.As aresult,the company's attributable net margin in 1H26/2Q26 was 2.1/3.3%(+0.4/+2.0pp YoY).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the subdued demand in the dairy industry and ongoing operating pressure on the company's liquid milk business,we lower our 2026/2027/2028 revenue forecasts to RMB23.39/23.79/24.51bn(-4/-6/-7%vs prior estimates).Additionally,considering industry competition and adjustments to dairy tax policies,we forecast 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.25/0.30/0.36(-28/-37/-31%vs prior estimates).Applying the average 2026E PE of 29x for comparable companies(Wind consensus),we assign a2026E PE of 29x and derive atarget price of RMB7.25(from RMB8.16).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Raw-material price volatility;macro growth missing our estimates;food-safety incidents.

Bright Dairy has recorded posted 2025 revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit of RMB23.90bn/-149mn/-60mn (-1.6% YoY/both turning to losses YoY). For 4Q25, revenue declined by 3.4% YoY to RMB5.66bn, with the attributable net profit at -RMB240mn (turning to a loss YoY) and the recurring net profit at -RMB220mn (the loss widening YoY). Results fell within the guided range of RMB-180mn to RMB-120mn (for attributable net profit) and RMB-100mn to RMB-40mn (for recurring net profit). The liquid milk and dairy farming operations came under pressure from external challenges and a trough in the raw milk cycle. On the bright side, other dairy products achieved positive revenue growth in 2025. The attributable net loss stemmed primarily from Synlait’s operational deficits, but management notes that these production issues have largely been resolved, according to company disclosures. Maintain OVERWEIGHT, considering the company’s ‘freshness strategy’ and nationwide expansion of refrigerated dairy products.
Other dairy products fared well while other products declined
By product category, liquid milk/other dairy products/farming products generated revenues of RMB13.22/8.47/0.91bn in 2025 (-6.7/+8.7/-11.2% YoY), with the 4Q25 figures at RMB3.08/2.30/0.20bn (+0.3/+5.5/-6.2% YoY). Liquid milk demand remained sluggish with milk prices under pressure, while other dairy products non-Shanghai/overseas markets recorded revenues of RMB6.11/10.01/7.65bn in RMB0.91/2.61/2.14bn (-30.8/+12.6/-1.2% YoY). In terms of channels, direct sales/distributors/other channels contributed revenues of RMB4.94/18.70/0.12bn in 2025 (-2.2/-1.5/+5.6% YoY), with the 4Q25 figures at RMB0.99/4.65/0.03bn (-8.9/-1.1/+71.7% YoY). Looking ahead, we think that the company’s distributor optimization and ‘quality-quantity synergy’ strategy, coupled with its development of emerging channels (including beverage chains and instant retail), should drive incremental revenue growth.
Gross margin and attributable net margin both contracted YoY
The gross margin fell by 2.0pp YoY to 17.3% in 2025 (4Q25: 16.0%, -3.1pp YoY), as raw milk cost benefits partially offset competitive pricing pressures. The company demonstrated effective cost discipline, with the selling/administrative expense ratios declining by 0.3/0.3pp YoY to 12.0/3.4% (4Q25: 13.4/4.1%, -1.6/ +0.2pp YoY). The attributable net margin deteriorated by 3.6pp YoY to -0.6% (4Q25: -4.2%, -14.5pp YoY), primarily due to Synlait’s operational issues. Synlait (65.25% owned by the company) recorded an operating loss for the year due to production disruptions, which led to inventory write-offs and elevated production costs. Management confirms that these issues have been largely resolved, according to company disclosures.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the slower dairy demand recovery than we expected, we lower our 2026/2027 revenue forecasts to RMB24.31/25.30bn (-5/-5% vs our prior estimates). Intensified near-term competition prompts us to reduce our gross margin assumptions. We thus revise our 2026/2027 attributable net profit estimates to RMB482/664mn (-27/-7% vs our prior estimates), and introduce our 2028 forecast of RMB715mn, with EPS of RMB0.35/0.48/0.52. We roll forward our valuation to 2027 metrics given the lingering farming segment drag. Applying the average for the company’s peers of 17x 2027E PE on Wind consensus, we derive our new target price of RMB8.16 (from RMB9.90 based on 25x 2025E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: raw-material price volatility; heightened industry competition; food-safety incidents.

　　投资要点：
　　事件：公司发布2025年年报：25年营业总收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为238.95/-1.49/-0.58亿元，同比-1.58%/-120.67%/-133.83%；Q4营业总收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为56.64/-2.36/-2.18亿元，同比-3.42%/-139.03%/-406.13%。
　　Q4液奶业务有所恢复，海外新莱特依旧承压。分品类：25年液态奶/其他乳制品/牧业/其他业务营收132.23/84.66/9.09/11.66亿元，占比55.6%/35.6%/3.8%/4.9%，收入同比-6.7%/+8.7%/-11.2%/-0.9%；Q4液态奶/其他乳制品/牧业/其他业务营收同比+0.3%/+5.5%/-6.2%/-74.4%，预计25年低温品类表现好于常温品类，Q4液奶业务有所恢复。分区域：25年上海/外地/境外营收61.08/100.07/76.50亿元，占比25.7%/42.1%/32.2%，收入同比-9.2%/+0.2%/+2.8%；Q4上海/外地/境外营收同比-30.8%/+12.6%/-1.2%。25年上海大本营市场有所承压，外地市场表现稳健；海外新莱特25年实现营业收入76.50亿元，同比增长2.84%，净利润-4.07亿元，主要系生产问题造成存货报废、生产成本费用增加等直接损失较大，25年新莱特启动北岛资产出售项目，预计将带来充足现金流用于偿还债务、降低利息成本，提升资本结构稳健性。分渠道：25年直营/经销商营收49.43/187.01亿元，占比20.8%/78.7%，收入同比-2.2%/-1.5%；25年末经销商数量5107个，同比减少347个。
　　毛利率同比下滑，盈利能力有所波动。25年毛利率为17.26%，同比-1.97pct，其中液态奶毛利率同比-0.65pct、系产品折扣促销影响及给渠道商代工的定价偏低，其他乳制品同比-3.03pct、系生产成本增加及工业奶粉售价下跌，牧业毛利率同比-4.95pct、系出售犊牛亏损，且高毛利的液奶业务收入占比下降同样对毛利率有负向影响；Q4毛利率为16.00%，同比-3.07pct。25年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为11.95%/3.39%/0.57%/0.77%，同比-0.29/-0.26/+0.01/-0.24pct，费率持续优化；Q4销售/管理/研发/财务费用率同比+2.07/+0.88/-0.25/-0.31pct，销售费用率提升主要系季度投放节奏差异。非经扰动：1）25年其他收益同比减少0.92亿元，主要系24年搬迁确认土地收储补偿收益；2）公允价值变动净收益同比改善1.10亿元，主要系25年与业绩有关的金融工具已到期；3）资产减值损失同比改善2.67亿元，主要系24年新莱特北岛资产产生减值；4）资产处置收益同比减少7.29亿元，主要系24年搬迁确认固定资产处置利得；5）营业外支出同比减少0.72亿元，主要系生物资产淘汰损失减少。综合以上因素，25年归母净利率为-0.62%，同比-3.60pct。
　　产品、渠道、营销持续优化发力，需求端有望修复。产品端，公司推出光明优倍5.0超鲜牛乳、光明如实高蛋白纯净发酵乳、光明舒睡奶系列新品，持续丰富产品矩阵。渠道端，顺应渠道变革趋势，全域拓展增长空间，线上重视随心订渠道开拓，线下深耕商超、便利店等多元场景，强化终端可见度，并积极抢抓折扣、零食量贩等新兴渠道机遇，推进餐饮、特通等多项渠道定制合作。营销端，深耕文体营销跨界创新，提升品牌影响力。此外，公司主动优化生产体系，实现市场匹配和效率提升并举。随着行业需求复苏，26年公司收入端有望提振，盈利能力存在优化空间。
　　盈利预测与投资建议：根据年报调整盈利预测，预计2026-2028年营收分别为248.63/259.97/272.76亿元，同比+4.1%/+4.6%/+4.9%，归母净利润分别为3.14/3.70/4.22亿元，同比+310.7%/+17.6%/+14.2%，EPS为0.23/0.27/0.31元；对应2026年3月30日收盘价，PE为33.3/28.3/24.8X，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：行业竞争加剧、原材料价格波动、食品安全、动销不达预期风险。

　　25年实现收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润239.0/-1.5/-0.6亿元，同比-1.6%/转为亏损/转为亏损；其中25Q4实现收入56.6亿元，同比-3.4%，实现归母净利润-2.4亿元，同比转为亏损，实现扣非净利润-2.2亿元，同比亏损加大；符合此前业绩预告（此前预告预计25年归母净利润为-1.8~-1.2亿元，扣非净利润为-1.0~-0.4亿元）。受外部环境影响与原奶周期仍处于磨底阶段等，公司液态奶与牧业产品经营承压，但其他乳制品业务收入25年实现正增。利润端，25年新莱特经营亏损导致公司25年归母净利为负数，但据公司公告，新莱特生产问题等已基本得到解决。展望来看，公司坚守“新鲜战略”，持续推进低温奶的全国化布局，维持“增持”。
　　25年液态奶/其他乳制品/牧业产品营收同比-6.7%/+8.7%/-11.2%
　　分产品看，25年液态奶/其他乳制品/牧业产品实现营收132.2/84.7/9.1亿元，同比-6.7%/+8.7%/-11.2%，对应25Q4实现营收30.8/23.0/2.0亿元，同比+0.3%/+5.5%/-6.2%。25年液态奶需求仍较为平淡，奶价受外部环境影响有所承压，但其他乳制品业务收入25年实现正增。分地区看，25年上海/外地/境外区域实现营收61.1/100.1/76.5亿元，同比-9.2%/+0.2%/+2.8%，对应25Q4实现营收9.1/26.1/21.4亿元，同比-30.8%/+12.6%/-1.2%。分渠道看，25年直营/经销商/其他渠道实现营收49.4/187.0/1.2亿元，同比-2.2%/-1.5%/+5.6%，对应25Q4实现营收9.9/46.5/0.3亿元，同比-8.9%/-1.1%/+71.7%，公司对于传统经销商进行优化调整，推进“量质齐升”策略，并积极拥抱B端茶饮客户、即时零售等新兴渠道，有望持续贡献收入增量。
　　25年毛利率同比-2.0pct，归母净利率同比-3.6pct
　　25年毛利率同比-2.0pct至17.3%（25Q4同比-3.1pct至16.0%），原奶成本红利与行业竞争对于公司毛利端的负面影响形成一定对冲。25年公司销售/管理费用率同比-0.3/-0.3pct至12.0%/3.4%（25Q4同比-1.6/+0.2pct至13.4%/4.1%），整体费用控制卓有成效。最终25年归母净利率同比-3.6pct至-0.6%（25Q4同比-14.5pct至-4.2%）。25年新莱特生产基地出现生产问题，造成存货报废、生产成本费用增加等直接损失较大，导致新莱特25年经营亏损，公司持有新莱特65.25%的股份，新莱特经营亏损导致公司25年归母净利为负数，但据公司公告，新莱特上述问题已基本得到解决。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑乳制品行业需求复苏进度低于预期，我们下调26-27年收入预测，预计26-27年收入243.1/253.0亿元（较前次-5%/-5%），考虑行业竞争短期较为激烈，我们下调26-27年毛利率预测，最终预计26-27年归母净利润4.8/6.6亿元（较前次-27%/-7%），并引入28年归母净利润为7.2亿元，对应26-28年EPS为0.35/0.48/0.52元。考虑26年仍有牧业业务的拖累，我们针对公司27年EPS进行估值，参考可比公司27年PE均值17x（Wind一致预期），给予其27年17xPE，目标价8.16元（前值9.90元，对应25年22xPE），“增持”。
　　风险提示：原材料价格波动、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。