Shanghai Tunnel Engineering has released its 1H26 results: revenue came in at RMB20.18bn (-8.36% YoY), with an attributable net profit of RMB558mn (-23.17% YoY) and a recurring attributable net profit of RMB698mn (+2.66% YoY). The decline was attributable to lower construction revenue, while recurring performance of the core business remained resilient. In 2Q26, revenue was RMB12.25bn (+6.79% YoY, +54.48% QoQ), with an attributable net profit of RMB261mn (-34.11% YoY, -12.12% QoQ), below our estimate of RMB371mn, owing to larger-than-expected non-recurring losses from fair value changes. The company continued to advance its ‘investment-construction-operation-asset listing’ closed loop, with the Orient Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Expressway REIT listed in April; it proposed a dividend of RMB0.50 per 10 shares for 1H26, strengthening shareholder returns. Maintain BUY.
New orders edged down
In 1H26, the company secured new orders of RMB43.87bn, down by 5.07% YoY. By segment, new orders for construction/design/operations/digital business were RMB37.3/2.1/4.1/0.4bn, -5.4/+35/-19.5/+135.4% YoY. For construction by region, new orders within Shanghai/outside Shanghai/overseas were RMB14.7/20.7/ 1.85bn, -12.3/+7.1/-43.3% YoY, with continued expansion outside Shanghai; by type, energy/environmental/road/real estate project orders rose by 36.5/73.8/27.2/ 8.4% YoY. We think that growth in emerging sectors and business outside Shanghai could improve the future order mix.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that 1H26 fair-value change losses exceeded our expectations, we lower our fair-value change assumptions; given the medium-to-long-term slowdown in construction investment and likely persistent competition in the core construction business, we lower our construction margin assumptions and adjust our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB2.04/2.12/2.21bn (adjusted by -11/-10/-9% vs prior). Using an SOTP approach and based on peer-average valuation multiples on Wind consensus, we assign 7/30/14x 2026E PE to the construction/information-based operations/asset-heavy operations segments (on our 2026E net profit estimates of RMB1.38/0.25/0.41bn). Our target price is RMB7.01 (previous: RMB8.88, based on 2026E peer-average multiples of 7/47/13x PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Construction order intake below our expectations, slower growth in the operations business than we expect.

　　投资要点：
　　扣非归母净利润保持增长，高分红延续彰显长期投资价值。2026H1公司实现营业收入201.80亿元，同比-8.36%；实现归母净利润5.58亿元，同比-23.17%，扣非归母净利润6.98亿元，同比+2.66%。26H1非经常性损益为-1.40亿元，同比多亏损1.86亿元，主要系除有效套期保值业务外，公司持有及处置金融资产、金融负债产生的公允价值变动及投资损益为-3.06亿元，同比减少2.38亿元，对归母净利润形成拖累。单Q2实现营业收入122.50亿元，同比+6.79%；归母、扣非归母净利润分别为2.61、4.34亿元，同比分别-34.11%、+9.20%。公司2026H1拟现金分红1.57亿元，现金分红比例为36.00%，延续较高分红水平，持续回馈股东。
　　施工主业收入承压，设计服务和运营业务保持较快增长。2026H1公司施工业、设计服务、基础设施运营、机械加工及制造、融资租赁、投资业务、数字信息分别实现收入158.63、8.07、17.71、1.00、4.33、7.44、1.43亿元，同比分别-14.54%、+53.42%、+16.40%、+156.59%、+38.91%、-0.08%、-3.93%。其中，施工业收入下降对整体营收形成主要拖累，设计服务、基础设施运营等业务保持较快增长。盈利能力方面，上述业务毛利率分别为7.01%、28.89%、19.49%、12.08%、100%、57.93%、0.35%，同比分别-4.12、-2.56、-2.42、+3.23、持平、+0.21、-2.49pct，施工业务毛利率同比有所下降。分区域看，26H1公司境外实现收入19.93亿元，同比-20.04%，毛利率同比+1.69pct至5.00%，境外业务收入规模有所回落，但盈利水平同比改善。
　　新签订单总量略有承压，能源、环境及数字业务保持较快增长。2026H1公司新签订单金额438.67亿元，同比-5.07%。分业务看，施工业务中的能源工程、环境工程类新签订单分别同比+36.54%、+73.77%，数字业务新签订单同比+135.43%，均实现较快增长，订单结构持续优化。分区域看，上海市外（不包括港澳地区）新签订单206.87亿元，同比+7.08%，异地市场拓展保持增长。
　　毛利率有所承压，投资收益增加对利润形成支撑。2026H1公司综合毛利率为13.80%，同比-1.58pct，其中Q2单季毛利率为12.71%，同比-3.07pct。26H1期间费用率为12.10%，同比+0.41pct，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别同比持平、+0.24、+0.03、+0.14pct，主要系收入降幅大于费用降幅，导致费用率被动抬升。26H1资产及信用减值损失0.49亿元，同比增加0.21亿元；投资净收益6.85亿元，同比增加3.77亿元，对利润形成支撑；公允价值变动收益为-3.06亿元，同比减少2.38亿元。综合影响下，公司26H1净利率为2.81%，同比-0.50pct，Q2单季净利率为2.30%，同比-1.26pct。现金流方面，26H1经营活动现金净流出18.97亿元，同比少流出18.14亿元，经营性现金流同比明显改善；收现比、付现比分别为144.89%、158.61%，同比分别+28.80、+30.29pct。
　　盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为20.69/21.94/23.12亿元，同比增速分别为-6.57%/+6.06%/+5.37%，当前股价对应的PE分别为8.28/7.81/7.41倍。考虑到公司区域市场优势稳固，同时维持稳定高分红水平，我们认为公司经营韧性与估值优势兼备，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：基建投资增速不及预期，施工主业收入持续下滑风险，数字业务拓展不及预期，现金流改善及回款进度不及预期。

　　隧道股份发布中报，2026H1实现营收201.8亿元（yoy-8.36%），归母净利5.58亿元（yoy-23.17%），扣非归母净利6.98亿元（yoy+2.66%）。主要归因于施工业务收入下降，主营扣非表现仍具韧性。其中26Q2实现营收122.50亿元（yoy+6.79%，qoq+54.48%）、归母净利2.61亿元（yoy-34.11%，qoq-12.12%），归母净利低于我们此前预期（3.71亿元），主因公允价值变动带来的非经损失超出我们此前预期。公司持续推动“投资－建设－运营－资产上市”闭环，东方红隧道股份高速公路REIT于4月挂牌；26H1拟每10股派0.50元，持续强化股东回报。维持“买入”评级。
　　26H1核心施工毛利率承压，但设计、运营业务收入稳健增长
　　26H1核心施工业务实现营收158.63亿元（yoy-14.54%），占比78.6%，毛利率7.01%，同比-4.12pct，主要受行业竞争及项目结构影响。设计/运营/机械加工及制造分别实现营收8.1/17.7/1亿元，同比+53.4%/+16.4%/+156.6%，毛利率分别为28.9%/19.5%/12.1%，同比-2.6/-2.4/+3.2pct；融资租赁/投资/数字信息业务营收分别为4.3/7.4/1.4亿元，同比+38.9%/-0.1%/-3.9%。26H1综合毛利率同比-1.6pct至13.8%，其中26Q2毛利率12.7%，同比-3.1pct，环比-2.8pct。尽管施工盈利承压，设计、运营等利润率较高的业务增长对总体盈利形成一定支撑。
　　公允价值损失拖累表观利润，现金流显著修复
　　26H1公司整体费用率同比+0.41pct至12.10%，其中管理/研发/财务费用率同比+0.24/+0.03/+0.14pct，三项费用金额分别同比-2.71%/-7.73%/-4.61%，均有一定程度压降，但收入基数下降使得对费用的摊薄能力有所削弱。26H1实现投资收益6.85亿元，同比增加3.77亿元，其中联营及合营企业投资收益4.87亿元，同比增加3.12亿元；但公允价值变动损失3.06亿元，同比多损失2.38亿元，带动非经常性损益由上年同期净收益0.47亿元转为净损失1.40亿元。综合影响下，26H1归母净利率同比-0.53pct至2.77%。26H1经营活动净现金流为-18.97亿元，同比改善18.14亿元；其中26Q2净流入30.81亿元，同比多流入19.08亿元。期末资产负债率较年初-2.96pct至72.84%，主要受新发行其他权益工具补充权益影响。
　　新签订单小幅下降，市外及新兴领域增长亮眼
　　26H1公司新签订单438.7亿元，同比-5.07%。分业务看，施工/设计/运营/数字业务新签订单分别为373/21/41/4亿元，同比-5.4%/+35%/-19.5%/+135.4%。施工业务分地区看，上海市内/市外/境外新签订单分别为147/207/18.5亿元，同比-12.3%/+7.1%/-43.3%，市外市场继续扩张；分类型看，能源/环境/道路/房产工程订单同比+36.5%/+73.8%/+27.2%/+8.4%。我们认为新兴领域及市外业务增长有望改善后续订单结构。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到上半年公允价值变动损失超出我们此前预期，我们下调公允价值变动损益，建筑行业中长期投资放缓，施工主业或竞争持续激烈，下调施工业务利润率假设，调整公司26-28年归母净利润预测至20.4/21.2/22.1亿元（较前值分别调整-11%/-10%/-9%）。采用分部估值法，根据可比均值，给予公司26年施工/信息化运营/重资产运营（净利分别为13.8/2.5/4.1亿）7/30/14xPE，调整目标价至7.01元（前值8.88元，对应26年分部可比均值7/47/13xPE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：施工订单获取不及预期；运营业务增长不及预期。

Shanghai Tunnel Engineering has reported 1Q26 results, with revenue of RMB7,930mn (-24.83% YoY), attributable net profit of RMB297mn (-10.05% YoY), and recurring net profit of RMB264mn (-6.56% YoY). As a Shanghai state-owned enterprise, the company generates 87% of revenue from the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong/Macau SARs and Singapore, focusing on high-quality regions. It is also pivoting towards an operations-driven model. The success of its REIT projects should accelerate this transition, in our view. Maintain BUY.
Gross and net margins expanded YoY, expense ratio rose
For 1Q26, gross margin reached 15.48%, a 0.53pp YoY increase. Total expense ratio stood at 14.72%, up 3.33pp YoY, with the administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 6.06/4.14/4.50%, up 1.37/0.90/1.05pp YoY. The increase largely reflects the sharp revenue decline, as administrative and financial expenses remained rigid in the short term. Investment income came in at RMB410mn, down by RMB398mn YoY. The net effect was 1Q26 attributable net margin of 3.75%, up 0.62pp YoY.
Gearing down YoY/QoQ; receivables effectively reduced
At end-1Q26, the debt-to-asset ratio stood at 74.41%, down 1.35pp YoY and 1.40pp vs early 2026. The interest-bearing debt ratio was 23.7%, up 1.67pp YoY and 3.37pp from early 2026. Net operating cash outflow was RMB4,978mn for 1Q26, a YoY outflow increase of RMB94mn, mainly on seasonal project-start payments. Cash collection and payment ratios were 170/237%, up 11/24pp YoY. At end-1Q26, accounts receivable and bills stood at RMB19.7bn and contract assets amounted to RMB52.3bn, down by RMB3.2bn/up RMB0.71bn from end-2025. Accounts payable & bills were RMB71.2bn and contract liabilities were RMB9.6bn, down by RMB5.8bn and up by RMB0.22bn from end-2025.
Operations and digital segments sustained growth
In 1Q26, the company secured new orders of RMB21.9bn, down 5.08% YoY. By segment, core construction new orders came in at RMB17.4bn, down 9.41% YoY, with energy/real estate/environmental engineering posting strong growth of 62/172/71% YoY. Design/operations/digital business new orders reached RMB1.24/3.18/0.08bn, up 68/2.1/670% YoY. By region, new orders within Shanghai stood at RMB5.3bn (-26% YoY), while outside Shanghai they amounted to RMB10.3bn (+5.3% YoY), and overseas they were RMB1.8bn (-20% YoY).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB2,293/2,361/2,422mn. Using SOTP approach and based on peer-average valuation multiples on Wind consensus, we assign 6.7/47/13x 2026E PE to the construction/information-based operations/asset-heavy operations segments (on our 2026E net profit estimates of RMB1.65/0.25/0.40bn). Our target price is RMB8.88 (previous: RMB9.04, on 2026E peer-average multiples of 6.7/49/13x PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Construction order intake below our expectations, slower growth in the operations business than we expect.

Shanghai Tunnel Engineering has released its annual report.For 2025,revenue was RMB57,927mn(-15.82%YoY)and attributable net profit was RMB2,214mn(-22.07%YoY),below our estimate of RMB2,980mn,mainly due to the revenue decline and asharp YoY drop in investment income.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB23,532mn(-9.19%YoY,+90.17%QoQ)and attributable net profit was RMB1,004mn(-25.11%YoY,+108.03%QoQ).While 2025 was achallenging year operationally,the company maintains its resilience as aShanghai SOE with 87%of revenue concentrated in high-quality regions–the Yangtze River Delta,Guangdong,Hong Kong&Macau SARs,and Singapore.It is also pivoting toward an operation-driven model.On 22 April,the Dongfanghong Tunnel Engineering Expressway REIT was listed.The launch helps the company shift its infrastructure investment model from asset-heavy to asset-light,operating under aclosed loop of“investment–construction–operation–asset listing”.By monetizing assets,it can sustain steady growth in construction and investment scale,driving agradual improvement in the operating mix,in our view.Maintain BUY.
Core construction drags blended gross margin
By segment,core construction revenue was RMB45.6bn in 2025,accounting for 79%of the total,-20.3%YoY,with agross margin of 6.86%,-0.1pp YoY,mainly reflecting intensifying industry competition.Design services/infrastructure operations/machinery processing&manufacturing/financial leasing/investment/digital information recorded revenues of RMB2.36/4.98/0.28/0.68/2.65/0.95bn,-1%/-1%/+78%/+49%/-6%/+136%YoY,with gross margins of 35%/26%/15%/100%/69%/15%,+2.1/+1.2/+4.2/flat/+10.2/-1.6pp YoY.The digital information business posted significant growth,though its gross margin edged down;all other segments saw margin improvement.The 2025 blended gross margin rose 1.84pp YoY to 14.0%,with 4Q25 gross margin at 11.2%,-1.9pp YoY and-5.6pp QoQ.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the medium-to-long-term slowdown in construction investment and the company’s strategic pivot toward an operation-driven model,we lower our future traditional construction revenue estimates.We revise our 2026/2027 attributable net profit estimates to RMB2,293/2,361mn(-26.59%/-27.49%vs our prior estimates)and add our 2028 estimate of RMB2,422mn.Using asum-of-the-parts approach and based on peer-average valuation multiples,we assign 6.7/49/13x 2026E PE to the construction/information-based operations/asset-heavy operations segments(on our 2026E net profit estimates of RMB1.65/0.25/0.40bn).Our target price is to RMB9.04(previous:RMB10.30,on 2025E peer-average multiples of 8.5/32/13x PE).Maintain BUY.

　　事件：8月27日公司公告1H2026实现营收201.8亿元，同比-8.4%，归母、扣非净利润5.6、7.0亿元，同比-23.2%、+2.7%。Q2单季度营收122.5亿元，同比+6.8%，归母、扣非净利润2.6、4.3亿元，同比-34.1%、+9.2%。
　　传统主业规模收缩，数字业务新签高增。分行业来看，1H26公司施工业、设计服务、基础设施运营业务、机械加工及制造、投资业务、数字信息业务分别实现收入158.6、8.1、17.7、1.0、7.4、1.4亿元，同比-14.5%、+53.4%、+16.4%、+156.6%、-0.1%、-3.9%；毛利率分别为7.0%、28.9%、19.5%、12.1%、57.9%、0.4%，较上年分别变动-4.1、-2.6、-2.4、+3.2、+0.2、-2.5pct。1H26公司新签订单438.7亿元，同比-5.1%；施工、设计、运营、数字业务分别新签372.5、21.0、41.2、3.9亿元，同比-5.4%、+35.0%、-19.5%、+135.4%。
　　投资收益大幅增加，现金流同比改善。公司毛利率为13.80%，同比-1.6pct，1H2026期间费用率同比+0.41pct至12.10%，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别-0.00、+0.24、+0.03、+0.14pct，1H2026公司资产及信用减值损失为0.49亿元，同比多损失0.2亿元，公司1H2026实现投资收益6.85亿元，同比增加3.77亿元，投资收益/营收同比+2.00pct，综合影响下净利率同比-0.53pct至2.77%。1H2026公司CFO净额为-19.0亿元，同比+18.14亿元，收现比、付现比同比分别+28.80pct、+30.29pct，至144.89%、158.61%。
　　投资建议：公司上半年以来通过股权投资+基础设施REITs双轮驱动资本运作，一方面，公司出资44.4亿元投资中国能建，合计持股比例达4.98%；另一方面公司借助REITs工具盘活存量资产，东方红RIETs成功上市，发售规模46.8亿元。此外，公司政策保持稳健上半年分红1.6亿元，分红比例36%。预计公司26-28年归母净利润为19、21、22亿元，对应PE为9.0、8.3、7.7倍，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：项目推进不及预期，订单承接不及预期，投资收益不及预期。

　　事项：
　　2025年公司实现营业收入579.3亿元，同比下滑15.82%；实现归母净利润22.1亿元，同比下滑22.07%。
　　评论：
　　施工业营收占比维持80%水平左右，主营业务毛利率水平基本稳定。1）2025年公司施工业、设计服务、基础设施运营、机械加工及制造、融资租赁、投资业务、数字信息分别实现营收456.2、23.6、49.8、2.8、6.8、26.5、9.5亿元，分别同比-20.3%、-1.0%、-1.06%、+77.9%、+49.24%、-5.85%、+136.49%；毛利率分别为7%、35%、26%、15%、100%、69%、15%。2）分地区来看，公司主要业务收入来源集中在江浙沪等长三角区域，其中上海区域营收357.9亿元，占总营收比重约62%。
　　新签合同订单维持千亿规模，在手订单总金额1787.6亿元。1）2025年公司累计新签各类施工、设计、运营业务订单总量为1030.41亿元，同比增长0.02%，继续维持千亿量级，其中施工业务中的道路工程、房产工程和环境工程类均同比增幅超过40%。2）截至2025年底，公司在手订单总金额1787.6亿元，其中，已签订合同但尚未开工项目金额546.7亿元，在建项目中未完工部分金额1240.9亿元。
　　融资渠道顺畅扩张，分红股息支付率30.4%。1）2025年公司资产减值损失为0.2亿，同比减少0.28亿，投资收益为1.93亿元，同比减少12.49亿元。2）融资方面，2025年公司顺利完成50亿元可续期公司债券和165亿元超短期融资券的发行工作，并且公司国内首单以隧道为底层资产的公募REITs项目已获证监会和上交所正式受理，资本运作过程顺畅，融资渠道进一步拓宽。3）分红方面，2025年度公司实现现金分红6.29亿元（包括半年度分红），股息支付率28.4%。
　　投资建议：公司作为头部建筑国企，深耕长三角，考虑近年来公司新签订单持续增长，我们预计公司2026-2028年每股收益分别为0.76、0.79、0.88元，对应PE为7、7、6倍，我们筛选了5个有年度分红的建筑板块地方国企，其2026年机构一致预测PE平均值为11，按照2026年10倍PE估值，给予目标价7.6元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：基建主业增长不及预期、投资运营业务推进受阻、数字化业务增长不及预期。

　　事件：4月22日公司公告2025年实现营收579.3亿元，同比-15.8%，实现归母净利润22.1亿元，同比-22.1%，扣非归母净利润20.1亿元，同比-23.1%，单季度看，公司Q4实现营收235.3亿元，同比-9.2%,归母、扣非归母净利润10.0、10.2亿元,分别同比-25.1%、-21.9%。
　　机械加工及数字业务增速亮眼，在手订单充足。分行业看，25年公司施工业、设计服务、基础设施运营、机械加工及制造、投资业务、数字信息业务分别实现收入456、24、50、3、27、9亿元，同比-20%、-1%、-1%、+78%、-6%、+136%，毛利率分别为7%、35%、26%、15%、69%、15%，同比-0.1、+2.1、+1.2、+4.2、+10.2、-1.6pct。25年公司新签订单1030亿元，同比+0.02%，施工、设计、运营、数字业务分别新签896、47、78、10亿元，同比-1.5%、-23.8%、+58.9%、-1.3%，施工业中，道路工程、环境工程、房产工程实现+172%、+54%、+47%的增长，从区域来看，市内、市外（不含港澳台）、境外业务分别新签313、467、115亿元，同比-33%、+18%、+163%。截至25年末公司在手订单1788亿元，约为25年营收3倍，公司后续收入仍有支撑。
　　投资收益拖累业绩，经营现金流入有所减少。公司毛利率为13.99%，同比+1.8pct，2025年期间费用率同比+0.81pct至9.75%，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别-0.00、+0.47、+0.19、+0.15pct，25年公司资产及信用减值损失为-0.94亿元，同比少损失1.3亿元，公司2025年实现投资收益0.33亿元，同比减少1.77亿元（主要受华大九天股价下滑影响），综合影响下净利率同比-0.31pct至3.82%。2025年公司CFO净额为21.9亿元，同比-23.95亿元，收现比、付现比同比分别+8.92pct、+11.88pct，至106.32%、99.84%。
　　投资建议：我们预计26-28年公司归母净利润为23.7、25.3、27.1亿元，对应PE为8.2、7.7、7.1倍，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：基建投资不及预期，新兴业务拓展不及预期，项目实施不及预期。