China South Media (CSM) released its 1H26 results: 1H26 revenue was RMB5,843mn (-8.24% YoY), attributable NP was RMB933mn (-8.25% YoY), and recurring attributable NP was RMB924mn (-7.15% YoY). The revenue decline was due to changes in the external market environment and the continued decline in the school-age student population. However, the decline in recurring NP was smaller than that of revenue, benefiting from cost optimization and sound expense control. We believe CSM has a leading market share in the industry, its digital platform user base continues to expand, its core content and channel moats remain solid, and shareholder returns are stable. Maintain BUY.
Publishing and distribution business strained
According to OpenBook data, in 1H26, the company's share of actual sales value in the national general book retail market was 5.50%, ranking second in the industry. Its share of actual sales value in the new book retail market was 8.20%, ranking first in the industry. General book publishing sales (list price value) reached RMB1,058mn, up 9.27% YoY, with revenue of RMB322mn, up 1.29% YoY, but gross margin was 44.35%, down 7.26pp YoY. We attribute this to the slow recovery in general book market demand. On the distribution side, Hunan Xinhua Bookstore achieved revenue of RMB3,801mn and NP of RMB565mn. The "Four-Dimensional Reading 3.0" content scale expanded from over 80 titles to 116 titles, and out-of-province review-based supplementary teaching materials made progress in regions such as Shandong and Shaanxi, reflecting the company's advantages in high-quality content supply and regional distribution.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026-2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB1,608/1,624/ 1,655mn as we switch to a 2027 valuation. Average 2027 Wind consensus PE for comparable companies is 11.38x. Considering the company's leading position in publishing and distribution, stable cash flow, and high dividend payout ratio, we apply a 15x 2027E PE multiple, deriving a target price of RMB13.56 (previous: RMB13.43 on 15x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: changes in educational material policies, general book sales falling short of expectations, rising paper costs, digitalization progress trailing expectations.

　　公司发布2026年半年度报告：2026年上半年，公司实现营业收入58.43亿元，同比下降8.24%；实现归母净利润9.33亿元，同比下降8.25%；实现扣非归母净利润9.24亿元，同比下降7.15%。第二季度，公司实现营业收入29.22亿元，同比下降15.58%，环比增加0.02%，实现归母净利润5.53亿元，同比下降14.65%，环比增长45.67%，实现扣非归母净利润5.50亿元，同比下降10.89%，环比增长46.93%。
　　发行业务承压拖累整体收入，出版、数字传媒业务保持增长。2026年上半年，发行业务实现收入46.50亿元，同比下降12.71%，主要受外部市场环境变化及学龄学生人口持续减少影响；出版业务实现收入18.16亿元，同比增长4.92%，报告期内公司在全国图书综合零售市场实洋占有率为5.50%，排名行业第二，在全国新书零售市场实洋占有率为8.20%，居行业第一，优质内容供给对出版业务形成支撑；印刷、物资业务分别实现分部主营业务收入4.61亿元和5.15亿元，同比分别下降5.81%和8.91%；数字化服务及媒体传播业务实现收入4.88亿元，同比增长30.45%，主要受数字教育平台用户扩张、互联网广告及文旅等业务增长带动。
　　成本降幅大于收入带动毛利率提升，销售费用率上升推高期间费用率。2026年第二季度，公司综合毛利率同比提升5.00百分点至51.30%，营业成本为14.23亿元同比下降23.43%，大于营业收入15.58%的降幅。从上半年分部数据看，出版业务毛利率同比提升3.32个百分点至42.33%，发行业务毛利率同比提升0.36个百分点至36.15%，数字化服务及媒体传播业务毛利率同比提升3.19个百分点至27.12%，对综合毛利率形成支撑。2026年第二季度，公司期间费用率为31.23%，同比上升4.95个百分点，主要系销售费用同比增加10.11%，销售费用率同比上升4.18个百分点至17.90%。
　　数字教育用户基础持续扩大，AI应用加快向文化与教育场景落地。公司数字教育平台用户规模和覆盖场景进一步扩大，其中“贝壳网”“湘教智慧云”等全平台体系用户总数达1160万人，半年新增90万人。湖南省新华书店“阅达教育”平台注册学生用户达787万人，“智趣新体育”平台覆盖2006所学校、惠及183万名学生，为后续发展平台服务奠定用户基础。公司在文化与教育场景推进AI应用落地。文化领域，公司建设湖湘文化大模型，升级“湖湘文库（AI版）”，推出“AI见左宗棠”“AI见曾国藩”数字人产品，并落地湘阴柳庄、双峰富厚堂两大文旅景区；教育领域，公司持续优化教育智能体矩阵，积极探索学科垂类模型、“一书一AI”及多智能体协同等新模式。
　　投资建议：公司为出版行业的龙头公司，教育出版业务具备韧性。预计公司2026年/2027年/2028年营收为124.36亿元/126.07亿元/128.24亿元，归母净利润为15.82亿元/16.56亿元/17.35亿元，EPS为0.88元/0.92元/0.97元，对应PE为11.24倍/10.74倍/10.25倍，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：出生人口下滑；教材教辅及一般图书业务增长不及预期；市占率下滑风险；税收优惠政策变化风险；数字化转型不及预期。

　　中南传媒发布2026年半年报：26H1实现营收58.43亿元（yoy-8.24%），归母净利润9.33亿元（yoy-8.25%），扣非归母净利润9.24亿元（yoy-7.15%）。公司收入下降主要受外部市场环境变化及学龄学生人口持续减少影响；但扣非净利润降幅小于收入，主要得益于成本优化和良好的费用控制。我们认为公司市占率处于行业头部，数字化平台用户规模继续扩大，核心内容与渠道壁垒仍然稳固，股东回报稳健，维持“买入”评级。
　　出版发行主业承压，内容优势与市场地位继续巩固
　　据开卷数据，26H1公司在全国图书综合零售市场实洋占有率为5.50%，位列行业第二；新书零售市场实洋占有率为8.20%，位列行业第一。一般图书出版销售码洋10.58亿元，同比+9.27%，营业收入3.22亿元，同比+1.29%，但毛利率为44.35%，同比-7.26pct，我们推测主因一般图书市场需求修复缓慢。发行端，湖南省新华书店实现营收38.01亿元、净利润5.65亿元；“四维阅读3.0”内容规模由80余本扩充至116本，省外评议教辅在山东、陕西等区域取得进展，体现公司优质内容供给和区域发行渠道优势仍然稳健。
　　数智化用户生态持续扩容，“出版+AI”能力逐步落地
　　数字教育方面，湖南教育社相关平台用户总数达1,160万人，半年新增90万人，访问量超3,200万次；“阅达教育”平台注册学生用户达787万人，“智趣新体育”覆盖2,006所学校、惠及183万名学生并建成196个智慧操场，“A佳教育”APP用户总数达655万人。公司依托湖湘文化大模型升级全媒体数据库、上线中南数字生产系统，并持续推进AI阅读、教育智能体等产品。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测16.08/16.24/16.55亿元。我们切换为27年估值，可比公司Wind一致预期2027PE均值11.38x，考虑公司出版发行龙头地位、稳健现金流与高比例分红优势，给予27年15xPE估值，目标价13.56元（前值：13.43元，26年15xPE）。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：教材政策变动、一般图书销售不及预期、纸张成本上涨、数字化业务推进不及预期。

China South Media's(CSM)1Q26 revenue was RMB2,921mn(+1.10%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)was RMB380mn(+3.13%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB374mn(+1.22%YoY).In 1Q26,both revenue and NP grew moderately YoY,and operating cash flow improved significantly,indicating favorable operations.As apublishing and distribution leader,CSM boasts solid content and channel moats,as well as robust digitalization.We favor its high dividend and maintain our BUY rating.
Profitability quality continued to be improved
In 1Q26,GPM dipped by 0.56pp YoY to 44.40%,which we attribute to aseasonal decline in demand for general books,while we expect the profitability of the core textbook&workbook segment to have remained stable.For 1Q26,sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 15.06/13.63/0.34%(-0.22/-0.40/-0.49pp YoY),reflecting visible expense control results.The attributable NPM rose by c.0.26pp YoY to 12.99%,indicating that the company has further improved its profitability quality.
Operating cash flow improved significantly
In 1Q26,net operating cash flow turned positive YoY to RMB266mn,mainly driven by optimized cash collection/payment schedules and reduced salary payments.The substantial cash flow improvement,combined with the company's abundant cash and cash equivalents and robust asset-liability structure,further enhances its risk resistance and dividend support,highlighting its long-term value.
Digitalization provides ample long-term growth momentum
CSM keeps digital services and content innovation on track.New business formats such as digital education and content e-commerce maintain sound development momentum,with leading market shares in online channels.Backed by content resource advantages and regional distribution moats,market-oriented digital and intelligent workbook projects have kicked off to agood start,and the digital and intelligent education platform undergoes iterations and upgrades.As an important growth driver,digitalization could continue to unlock growth potential,in our view.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB1,608/1,624/1,655mn.To factor in the company's leading position in the publishing and distribution market,robust cash flow,and ahigh dividend payout ratio,we value the stock at 15x 2026E PE(unchanged),above its peers'average of 11.85x on Wind consensus.We reiterate our target price of RMB13.43.Maintain BUY.
Risks:Changes in educational material policies;general book selling missing our estimates;rising paper costs;digitalization progress trailing our expectations.

　　公司发布2026年一季报：26Q1实现总营业收入29.21亿元（yoy+1.10%）；归母净利润3.80亿元（yoy+3.13%）；扣非后净利润3.74亿元（yoy+1.22%）。26Q1公司营收与净利润均实现同比小幅增长，经营现金流显著改善，整体经营平稳向好。公司作为出版发行龙头，内容与渠道壁垒稳固，数字化业务持续推进，高分红价值凸显，维持“买入”评级。
　　出版发行主业稳健，盈利质量持续优化
　　26Q1公司毛利率为44.40%，同比下降0.56pct，我们推测主要系一般图书需求季节性回落所致，教材教辅核心业务盈利能力预计保持稳定。费用率方面，26Q1销售/管理/研发费用率分别为15.06%/13.63%/0.34%，同比分别-0.22pct/-0.40pct/-0.49pct，整体费用管控成效显著。归母净利率提升至12.99%，同比提升约0.26pct，盈利质量持续优化。
　　经营现金流显著改善，财务状况持续健康
　　26Q1公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额2.66亿元，同比由负转正，主要系报告期内资金收付节奏优化、职工薪酬支出减少所致。现金流大幅改善叠加公司货币资金充裕，资产负债结构稳健，抗风险能力与分红保障能力进一步增强，长期价值突出。
　　数字化转型稳步推进，长期成长动能充足
　　公司持续推进数字化服务与内容创新，数字教育、内容电商等新业态保持良好发展态势，线上渠道市占率领先。依托内容资源优势与区域发行壁垒，市场化数智教辅项目开局良好，数智教育平台持续迭代升级。数字化业务作为重要增长点，有望持续为公司打开成长空间。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测16.08/16.24/16.55亿元。26年可比公司Wind一致预期PE均值11.85x，考虑公司出版发行龙头地位、稳健现金流与高比例分红优势，维持公司26年15xPE估值，维持目标价13.43元。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：教材政策变动、一般图书销售不及预期、纸张成本上涨、数字化业务推进不及预期。