Shenzhen Gas reported 1H26 revenue of RMB14.8bn (-4.17% YoY), attributable NP of RMB778mn (+22.02% YoY), and ex-nonrecurring NP of RMB759mn (+22.99% YoY), all in line with its preliminary results. In 2Q26, revenue reached RMB8.0bn (+0.74% YoY, +17.13% QoQ), while attributable NP came in at RMB511mn (+26.33% YoY, +91.47% QoQ). The core city gas business remained solid, while M&A expansion helped offset regional demand volatility. The company also recently participated as a strategic investor in China Resources New Energy’s IPO, securing exposure to high-quality new energy assets. Maintain BUY.
Gas resource: A key growth driver with NP +79% to RMB441mn
Natural gas wholesale volume increased 3.56% YoY to 785mn cubic meters in 1H26, while wholesale revenue rose 5.70% YoY to RMB2.8bn. The gas resources segment generated net profit of RMB441mn (+78.9% YoY), making it the company’s largest earnings contributor. Shenzhen Gas capitalized on favorable international LNG market windows by flexibly adjusting the pace of international trading and domestic sales, supporting higher overseas wholesale gross profit. It also lowered procurement costs by coordinating and swapping domestic pipeline gas and LNG resources. The JKM spot price benchmark has moved higher in 2026 versus 2025. During favorable international trading windows, the company’s diversified supply portfolio and ability to absorb long-term contracted volumes provide meaningful upside from arbitrage. Commissioning of the phase II storage facility expansion has been delayed from end-2026 to end-May 2028. The delay does not alter its strategic role, but pushes back the earnings contribution from expanded LNG receiving and storage capacity.
City gas: Stable core; M&A offsets softer regional demand
Pipeline gas sales volume increased 0.4% YoY to 2.64bn cubic meters in 1H26. Sales volume in the Greater Bay Area declined 4.7% YoY, while sales to power plants fell 5.5% YoY, mainly because high gas prices constrained downstream demand and the power market remained volatile. City gas sales in other regions rose 7.2% YoY, benefiting from the consolidation of Deyang Longzhou and other operations as well as continued regional expansion. Pipeline gas customers reached 8.97mn at end-June, a net increase of 350k from the beginning of the year. This included 5.94mn customers in the Greater Bay Area, up 60k, and 3.03mn in other regions, up 290k, indicating a notable acceleration in customer expansion outside the Greater Bay Area. City gas net profit increased 6.6% YoY to RMB296mn in 1H26, demonstrating resilient core profitability. Supported by high gas penetration in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and a favorable non-residential customer mix, the company’s demand has proven more resilient than that of peers. We expect city gas sales volume to maintain growth in 2026, with inorganic expansion continuing to contribute incremental earnings.
Earnings forecast and valuation
We maintain our 2026-2028E attributable NP forecasts of RMB1.7bn/RMB1.9bn/ RMB2.1bn (2026-2028E CAGR: 13.52%), corresponding to EPS of RMB0.58/ RMB0.65/RMB0.72. Gas peers are trading at an average of 10.6x 2026E PE based on Wind consensus. We apply 15x 2026E PE, with the valuation premium justified by the company’s 2026-2028E attributable NP CAGR of 14%, versus 7% for peers. New energy synergies from the strategic placement provide additional long-term valuation upside. We maintain our target price of RMB8.70.
Risks: sharp increases in gas prices, weaker-than-expected demand for photovoltaic encapsulant film, asset impairment risks, weaker-than-expected smart services business volumes.

　　事件：公司发布2026年半年报。2026年上半年公司实现营业收入147.88亿元，同比下降4.17%；归母净利润7.78亿元，同比增长22.02%；扣非归母净利润7.59亿元，同比增长22.99%，业绩基本符合我们的预期。
　　电厂用气下滑拖累销气增速，管道燃气毛利同比回落。1H26公司天然气销售量38.88亿立方米，同比增长1.62%；其中管道天然气销售量26.40亿立方米，同比增长0.38%。具体来看，大湾区销售量14.40亿立方米，同比下降4.70%，其中电厂销售量7.07亿立方米，同比下降5.48%；外埠燃气销售量12.00亿立方米，同比增长7.24%，主要系燃气电厂容量电价变动，电厂用气量下滑。1H26公司管道燃气业务毛利8.84亿元，同比下降29.95%，毛利率10.67%，同比下降4.69pct。此外，公司东莞大朗2×470MW燃气热电联产项目已公告拟建，预计2026年8月开工、首套机组2028年四季度试运行，投产后有望为公司带来稳定的用气增量，打开大湾区城燃销气成长空间。
　　国际气价上行打开套利窗口，天然气批发利润同比高增。2026年2月底以来，受地缘冲突影响国际LNG现货价格大幅上行。公司布局天然气全产业链，上游已与中石油、大鹏一期、BP等资源供应方签署长期合同，中下游全面布局LNG船舶、接收站及储备调峰库资产，“长协+现货”互补的资源池在本轮气价上行周期中充分释放利润弹性。1H26公司天然气批发量7.85亿立方米，同比增长3.56%；天然气批发业务收入27.66亿元，同比增长5.70%，毛利6.90亿元，同比增长130.06%，毛利率24.94%，同比提升13.48pct，是上半年公司业绩增长的核心驱动。公司负责统筹采购LNG及LPG的全资子公司华安公司上半年净利润4.26亿元，同比提升83.3%。目前深圳市天然气储备与调峰库二期扩建工程处于在建状态，预计2028年竣工，投产后公司LNG年周转能力将从80万吨提升至280万吨，储备及周转能力大幅增强。
　　胶膜业务毛利率显著修复，智慧服务低基数下回升。1H26公司光伏胶膜业务收入14.22亿元，同比下降26.61%，但受益于胶膜价格企稳及公司保持高开工率，1H26胶膜业务毛利1.01亿元，同比增长63.70%，毛利率7.12%，同比提升3.93pct，盈利能力边际改善明显。智慧服务方面，深圳地区“瓶改管”项目收尾的高基数影响完全消除，1H26公司智慧服务分部收入5.04亿元，同比增长58.02%；燃气工程及材料业务毛利2.53亿元，同比增长20.78%，前期拖累公司业绩的智慧服务板块压力已基本释放。
　　盈利预测与估值：结合公司2026年上半年管道燃气成本走高业绩下降，海气贸易利润大幅提升的趋势，我们维持公司2026-2028年归母净利润的预测分别为18.90、20.18、21.18亿元，当前股价对应PE分别为10、9和9倍。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：天然气价格高波动，光伏胶膜价格波动，天然气销量不及预期

　　深圳燃气发布半年报，2026年H1实现营收147.88亿元（yoy-4.17%），归母净利7.78亿元（yoy+22.02%），扣非净利7.59亿元（yoy+22.99%），均和业绩快报一致。其中Q2实现营收79.77亿元（yoy+0.74%，qoq+17.13%），归母净利5.11亿元（yoy+26.33%，qoq+91.47%）。城市燃气基本盘稳健，外延增长对冲区域需求波动；公司近期成功参与华润新能源IPO战略配售，锁定优质新能源资产。维持“买入”评级。
　　燃气资源：分部净利+79%至4.41亿元，利润增长核心引擎
　　1H26公司天然气批发量7.85亿立方米（yoy+3.56%），批发收入27.66亿元（yoy+5.70%），燃气资源分部实现净利润4.41亿元（yoy+78.9%），为第一大利润来源。公司紧抓国际LNG市场窗口，灵活调整国际贸易与内销节奏，增厚海外批发毛利，并通过国内气液资源统筹置换降低采购成本。2026年以来JKM现货价格中枢较2025年继续上行，公司多元化资源池与长期合同消纳能力在国际市场窗口期具备显著套利弹性。公司公告储备库二期项目投产日期由2026年末延期至2028年5月末，项目延期不改变战略定位，但接收/储备能力扩张对应收益时点相应后移。
　　城市燃气：基本盘稳健，外延增长对冲区域需求波动
　　1H26公司管道天然气销售量26.40亿立方米（yoy+0.4%），其中大湾区yoy-4.7%，电厂销售量yoy-5.5%，主要受高气价抑制下游需求及电力市场波动影响；其他地区城燃yoy+7.2%，受益于德阳龙洲等项目并表及区域拓展。截至6月底管道气用户897万户，较期初净增35万户（大湾区594万/+6万、其他地区303万/+29万），区外用户扩张明显提速。1H26城市燃气实现净利润2.96亿元（yoy+6.6%），基本盘盈利稳健。公司依托深圳特区高普及率及非居客户结构优势，需求韧性优于同行，我们预计2026年全年城市燃气销量有望延续增长，外延项目将持续贡献增量。
　　综合能源：胶膜扭亏、气电量减利稳，新能源协同打开长期空间
　　1H26综合能源分部收入21.76亿元（yoy-19%），净利润0.15亿元（yoy-67%）。其中斯威克收入14.22亿元（yoy-26.6%），但公司推进降本增效、调整产能布局，叠加胶膜价格企稳，斯威克同比实现扭亏，并推出钙钛矿领域热塑性TPO胶膜、已向主要客户供货，维持全球第二市场占有率。深燃热电在运燃气发电装机1.3GW，1H26发电量yoy-19%、但供热量yoy+83%，热电联产综合利用率提升。公司参与华润新能源IPO战略配售，认购金额4.46亿元（4,412.5万股），双方将在深燃机供暖、节能改造、风光储一体化、虚拟电厂等领域探索合作，为综合能源转型注入战略协同价值。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为16.67/18.75/20.60亿元（三年复合增速为13.52%），对应EPS为0.58/0.65/0.72元。Wind一致预期下燃气可比公司26年PE均值10.6x，给予公司26年15xPE，估值溢价因公司26-28年归母净利CAGR（14%）高于同行（7%）、战略配售带来的新能源协同则提供了额外的长期估值弹性，维持目标价8.7元。
　　风险提示：气价大幅上涨；光伏胶膜需求不及预期；资产减值风险；智慧服务业务量不及预期。

Shenzhen Gas reported 1H26 preliminary results, with revenue of RMB14.79bn (-4.17% YoY), attributable NP of RMB778mn (+22.02% YoY), and recurring NP of RMB759mn (+22.99% YoY). The revenue decline was mainly due to lower revenue from integrated energy (gas power). However, strong wholesale profit from gas resources drove attributable NP above our expectation (RMB652– 707mn). The core city gas business remains stable, with external expansion offsetting regional demand volatility. The company recently participated in China Resources New Energy's IPO strategic placement with a subscription amount of RMB446mn, securing high-quality new energy assets. Maintain BUY.
Gas resource: sustained high GPM fuels core earnings growth
In 1H26, the company's natural gas wholesale volume reached 785mn cubic meters (+3.56% YoY), achieving positive growth despite a high base last year. Looking at industry trends, the global natural gas market has remained tightly balanced since the start of 2026. The JKM spot price continues to trend higher vs 2025, and China's imported LNG landed prices remain elevated. The company has built a diversified and stable resource pool with leading long-term contract offtake capabilities, providing significant arbitrage flexibility during international market windows. We expect wholesale profit to remain the primary growth contributor in 2H26 and full-year wholesale profit to potentially exceed 2025 levels.
City gas: A stable core; expansion buffers regional volatility
In 1H26, the company's pipeline gas sales volume reached 2.64bn cubic meters (+0.38% YoY), indicating a moderation in growth. Within this, the Greater Bay Area accounted for 1.44bn cubic meters (-4.70% YoY), and power plant sales were 707mn cubic meters (-5.48% YoY). This weakness was largely driven by high gas prices weighing on downstream demand and volatility in the power market. However, city gas sales in other regions reached 1.20bn cubic meters (+7.24% YoY). This was driven by regional expansion and the consolidation of projects such as Deyang Longzhou, which effectively provided a volume buffer against weaker demand in the Greater Bay Area.While the high gas price environment acts as a broad demand headwind for downstream city gas companies, Shenzhen Gas exhibits stronger demand resilience than its peers. This is underpinned by the high penetration rate and the heavy non-residential customer mix within the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Looking ahead, we expect full-year city gas sales volume to sustain growth in 2026, with external projects continuing to provide a volume buffer.
Maintain earnings estimates and target price
We maintain our earnings estimates and expect 2026-2028 attributable NP to be RMB1.67bn, RMB1.88bn, and RMB2.06bn (a three-year CAGR of 14%), representing EPS of RMB0.58, RMB0.65, and RMB0.72. Gas peers trade at an average 2026E PE of 10x on Wind consensus. We value the company at 15x 2026E PE, with the valuation premium underpinned by a higher 2026-2028 attributable NP CAGR (14%) vs peers (7%), while new energy synergies from the strategic placement provide further long-term valuation rerating opportunity. Maintain target price of RMB8.70.
Risks: A sharp rise in gas prices; slower-than-expected demand for PV films; asset impairment risks; weaker-than-expected volume in the smart services business.

　　深圳燃气发布业绩快报，1H26实现营业收入147.88亿元（yoy-4.17%），归母净利润7.78亿元（yoy+22.02%），扣非归母净利润7.59亿元（yoy+22.99%）。营收下降主因综合能源（气电）收入下滑，但燃气资源批发利润高增带动归母净利好于华泰预期（6.52~7.07亿元）。城市燃气基本盘稳健，外延增长对冲区域需求波动。公司近期成功参与华润新能源IPO战略配售，认购金额4.46亿元，锁定优质新能源资产。维持买入。
　　燃气资源：高毛利延续，利润增长核心引擎
　　1H26公司天然气批发量7.85亿立方米（yoy+3.56%），在去年同期高基数上仍实现正增长。从行业趋势看，2026年以来全球天然气市场维持紧平衡，JKM现货价格中枢较2025年继续上行，中国进口LNG到岸价维持高位。公司已建立多元化、供应稳定的资源池，长期合同消纳能力领先，在国际市场窗口期具备显著的套利弹性。我们预计2H26批发利润仍将贡献主要增量，全年批发利润有望超越2025年水平。
　　城市燃气：基本盘稳健，外延增长对冲区域需求波动
　　1H26公司管道天然气销售量26.40亿立方米（yoy+0.38%），增速放缓。其中大湾区14.40亿方（yoy-4.70%），电厂销售量7.07亿方（yoy-5.48%），主要受高气价抑制下游需求及电力市场波动影响；但其他地区城燃12.00亿方（yoy+7.24%），受益于德阳龙洲等项目并表及区域拓展，有效对冲了大湾区需求偏弱。高气价环境对下游城燃企业普遍形成需求抑制，但深圳燃气依托深圳特区高普及率及非居客户结构优势，需求韧性优于同行。我们预计2026年全年城市燃气销量有望延续增长，外延项目将持续贡献增量。
　　综合能源：胶膜企稳、气电承压，新能源协同打开长期空间
　　1H26胶膜行业价格企稳、截至目前均价yoy+1.92%，公司推进降本增效，调整产能布局，斯威克维持全球第二市场占有率，BC、HJT组件封装胶膜取得领先优势。深燃热电在运燃气发电装机1.3GW，第二台9F机组于2025年中投产；虽然1H26电厂用气量下降5.48%，但气电作为调峰电源在新型电力系统中的定位明确，长期需求趋势向好。公司近期参与华润新能源IPO战略配售，认购金额4.46亿元，获配4,412.5万股，发行价格10.11元/股；双方将在深燃机供暖、节能改造、风光储一体化、虚拟电厂等前沿领域探索合作，为公司综合能源转型注入战略协同价值，长期有望提升估值溢价。
　　维持盈利预测和目标价
　　维持盈利预测，我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润为16.67/18.75/20.60亿元（三年复合增速为14%），对应EPS为0.58/0.65/0.72元。Wind一致预期下燃气可比公司26年PE均值10x，给予公司26年15xPE，估值溢价因公司26-28年归母净利CAGR（14%）高于同行（7%）、战略配售带来的新能源协同则提供了额外的长期估值弹性，维持目标价8.7元。
　　风险提示：气价大幅上涨；光伏胶膜需求不及预期；资产减值风险；智慧服务业务量不及预期。