Southern Publishing&Media has released 1Q26 results:revenue was RMB1,969mn(down 6.81%YoY);attributable net profit was RMB300mn(down 6.23%YoY);recurring net profit was RMB279mn(down 7.85%YoY).The slight decline in revenue and profit in 1Q26 is likely in our view due to seasonally weak general book sales and the continued contraction of low-margin trading businesses,while the core textbook and supplementary education business remained stable,with improving earnings quality and net profit margin up YoY.The company leverages the demographic and student base advantages of Guangdong Province,and the integration of AI education with content continues to advance,with the long-term growth trajectory unchanged.Maintain BUY.
Core business profit resilient;earnings quality enhancing
The company's core education publishing and distribution business remained stable,with the spring semester textbook and supplementary material supply in position,supported by strong demand in Guangdong.In 1Q26,the company's gross margin was 40.23%,down slightly by about 2.06pp YoY,which we attribute mainly to cost fluctuations in the general book publishing business,while we expect the profitability of the core textbook and supplementary material business to remain stable.Despite short-term pressure on gross margin,the company's net profit margin improved against the macro headwinds,with 1Q26 attributable net profit margin at 15.25%,up 0.1pp YoY,which we estimate was mainly driven by continued optimization of expense ratios,and the contraction of low-margin trading businesses further boosted earnings quality.
Digital intelligence transformation advancing
In the AI education field,the"Digital-Intelligent Southern Media"strategy continues to be executed,with the user base and activity of the Yuejiao Xiangyun digital textbook platform steadily improving,the pilot scope of the"Wanjuan Yaoyi"LLM further expanding,and the large-scale application of scenarios such as AI Teaching Assistant and AI Learning Aid continuing to deepen.This has helped improve the digital education ecosystem.For content innovation,the company is accelerating the integration of"Publishing+Film&Television",promoting the transformation of high-quality book IPs into formats such as micro-dramas and comic dramas,with diversified monetization paths for cultural content continuing to broaden,offering ample growth momentum.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts of RMB1,099/1,173/1,248mn.The average PE for 2026E(on Wind consensus)for peers is 12.51x.Considering the company benefits from Guangdong's favorable demographic mix,its leading position in AI education deployment,and stable dividend returns,we maintain a14x PE for 2026E and maintain our target price of RMB17.45.Maintain BUY.
Risks:K-12 school-age population falling short of our expectations,changes in publishing industry policies,slower commercialization of AI education and short-form drama businesses than we expect.

Southern Publishing&Media has released its 2025 annual report.Full-year 2025 total revenue was RMB8,635mn(-5.85%YoY);attributable net profit was RMB1,043mn(+28.79%YoY),slightly below our prior forecast of RMB1,119mn,which we attribute to weaker-than-expected general book sales;and recurring net profit was RMB968mn(+2.89%YoY).The total cash dividend for 2025 amounted to RMB494mn,with apayout ratio of 47.36%.The absolute dividend amount increased from RMB485mn in 2024,evidence of the company’s commitment to shareholder returns.Strong profit growth in 2025 was driven by lower paper costs and favorable tax policies,combined with the company’s efforts to optimize its business mix and reduce low-margin trading activities.We believe shareholder returns will remain stable in the long term.Maintain BUY.
Edu publishing&distribution remains asolid foundation
The company is aregional distribution leader in Guangdong.Its core business is supported by the local demographic structure,characterized by alarge resident population and considerable school-age student base,with net population inflows.This structure lays asolid foundation for long-term,inelastic demand for textbooks and supplementary materials.In 2025,revenue from textbooks and supplementary materials was RMB8,668mn,up 2.43pp YoY,with gross margin of 27.78%,up 1.96pp YoY.The company distributed 415mn copies of primary and secondary school paper textbooks,covering nearly 17,000 schools and c.18mn students.It published 674 types of textbooks and 2,660 types of supplementary materials,with sales value of RMB5,341mn,fulfilling the provincial task of ensuring“books before class,one copy per student”.In general publishing,the company published 4,713 book titles for the full year,achieving asales value of RMB3,106mn.It produced frequent bestsellers and achieved results in thematic publishing,with over 320 copyright exports,showing improving international communication capabilities.
Digital-smart transition&IP unlock growth potential
Amid its digital transformation,the company is deploying AI education and short-form drama Ips while exploring new integrated development paths under the“Publishing+”model.Within AI education,the“Digital-Intelligent Southern Media”strategy is advancing.The Yuejiao Xiangyun digital textbook application platform now covers 19,400 schools across the province,with annual active teacher and student visits reaching 52.79mn.Scenarios for“AI Teaching Assistant”and“AI Learning Aid”have been implemented at scale.The“Wanjuan Yaoyi”large model is integrated into the platform and has been deployed in 586 pilot schools.The company is leading the drafting of AI industry standards for the publishing sector.In short-form drama and integrated media,it is exploring the integration of“Publishing+Film&Television”,and experimenting with formats such as micro-dramas,comic dramas,and games.The micro-drama“Yan Zhu Qiang”achieved apopularity index of 40mn.Multiple cultural IPs with millions of views have been incubated,broadening the diversified monetization paths for cultural content.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit of RMB1,099/1,173/1,248mn(-13%/-17%from prior forecasts,on aslower-than-we-expected recovery in the general book market).The average forward PE for 2026E based on Wind consensus for peers is 12.62x.Considering the company benefits from Guangdong’s favorable demographic structure and its leading position in AI+education deployment,we assign a14x PE for 2026E,resulting in atarget price of RMB17.45(previous:RMB17.51,based on 13.8x PE for 2025E).Maintain BUY.
Risks:K-12 school-age population falling short of our expectations,changes in publishing industry policies,slower commercialization of AI education and short-form drama businesses than we expect.

　　【事件】公司发布25年报和26一季报：25全年实现营业收入86.4亿元（yoy-5.8%），归母净利润10.4亿元（yoy+28.8%）。26Q1实现营业收入19.7亿元（yoy-6.8%），归母净利润3.0亿元（yoy-6.2%）。公司拟现金分红4.9亿元，分红总额稳步提升，分红率达47.4%。
　　Q1受季节性因素略微下滑，教育出版主业稳中有进。Q1公司业绩波动，我们判断主要因26年春节较晚导致开学时间相对靠后，门店端市场化教辅销售较往年略有滞后，进而影响Q1确收周期。展望后续核心业务经营，教材教辅主业一方面拓展港澳地区有望做大收入规模，另一方面省内市场化教辅格局较为分散，有望进一步提高市占率。
　　数智发展标杆，AI布局赋能新增长动能。粤教翔云数字教材应用平台已覆盖全省1.94万所学校，全年师生活跃人次达5279万，推出“AI助教”“AI助学”智能应用场景。此外公司牵头起草《出版业人工智能应用安全要求》《出版业人工智能语料加工要求》行业标准，语料标准落地有望激活出版行业语料价值，增加高质量专业语料变现渠道。
　　子公司参与设立投资基金，激活内部优质IP影视化价值。公司子公司南传投资、花城社、经济社、海燕社作为有限合伙人认缴2400万元、在产业基金中持股99.59%，主要投资于影视、演艺等相关领域的优质项目与企业。公司旗下出版社爆品频出，如《我的阿勒泰》获2025年中国版权金奖作品奖、“米吴科学”等IP发货码洋超千万元，我们认为内部优质IP影视化价值潜力较高，继续跟进后续影视化进展。
　　考虑到一般图书市场大盘相对不景气，我们略微下调26-28年归母净利润分别为11.1/11.9/12.3亿元（26-27年预测前值为11.9/12.8亿元），对应EPS1.25/1.35/1.40元。参考可比公司估值，给予2026年P/E调整后均值13倍，对应目标价16.25元，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示
　　政策风险；K12学生人数减少风险；成本风险；新业务拓展不及预期风险；公允价值变动、减值等项目波动风险

　　事件:
　　（1）公司于2026年4月23日及4月28日分别公告2025年度报告及2026年一季报。2025年实现营业收入86.35亿元，yoy-5.85%，归母净利润10.43亿元，yoy+28.79%，扣非归母净利润9.68亿元，yoy+2.89%。2026年一季度实现营业收入19.69亿元，yoy-6.81%，归母净利润3.00亿元，yoy-6.23%，扣非归母净利润2.82亿元，yoy-7.85%。
　　（2）公司旗下四家子公司合计出资2400万元（合计出资比例达99.59%），参与设立投资基金，用于投资影视等融媒体领域优质项目与企业。
　　投资要点:
　　收入结构优化，降本增效驱动盈利质量改善
　　（1）2025年：实现营业收入86.35亿元，yoy-5.85%，主要受一般图书收入下滑（yoy-9.69%）及公司主动压减低毛利板块（物资贸易板块yoy-18.43%）影响。费用端，销售费用8.68亿元，yoy-5.61%，管理费用9.92亿元，yoy-2.01%，费用管控成效显著，研发费用3,039万元，yoy+242.2%，主要系新增AI技术研发项目（含"万卷要义"大模型及粤教翔云平台升级），研发费用率仍仅0.35%，投入尚属初期。利润端，2025年实现归母净利润10.43亿元，yoy+28.79%，扣非归母净利润9.68亿元，yoy+2.89%，利润总额12.49亿元，yoy+11.94%，盈利质量持续改善。
　　（2）2026Q1：实现营业收入19.69亿元，yoy-6.81%，与2025Q1收入下滑趋势一致，主要系2026年春季免费教材预付款于2025年底提前收取，导致一季度销售商品收到现金减少至11.40亿元（2025Q1为15.47亿元），属收款时序性变化，并非业务本身影响。毛利方面，2026Q1毛利率约40.2%，较2025Q1（38.2%）同比提升约2.1pct，降本增效成果延续。归母净利润3.00亿元，yoy-6.23%，扣非归母净利润2.82亿元，yoy-7.85%，与收入降幅接近，公司经营情况稳定。
　　（3）在手现金：截至2026Q1期末，公司在手现金（货币资金+交易性金融资产+其他流动资产+其他非流动资产）42.34亿元。
　　（4）分红：公司2025年度拟每10股派发5.60元（含税），同比提升0.1元，全年分红总额约4.94亿元（含中期股息），分红率约47.4%（以归母净利润口径）；据4月27日收盘价，近12个月股息率4.56%。公司在手现金充裕，未来分红持续性有保障。
　　教育出版基本盘稳健，AI与数字化转型加速
　　（1）教材教辅稳中有增：2025年出版+发行口径教材教辅合计营业收入86.68亿元，yoy+2.43%，毛利率27.78%，同比提升1.96pct，为公司最核心且最稳定的利润来源。其中租型教材教辅及应用服务收入12.38亿元，yoy+25.21%，增速显著，毛利率同比大幅提升8.67pct至36.39%，反映省外教材推广成效及数字教材附加值提升；自编教材教辅收入14.71亿元，yoy-0.85%，受部分学科新旧版本切换影响，但毛利率同比提升1.30pct。教材发行方面，公司取得广东省2024秋至2027春义务教育阶段免费教科书发行权，全年发行中小学纸质教科书4.15亿册，覆盖全省近1.7万所学校约1800万名学生，政策护城河深厚。
　　（2）AI与数字化战略加速："粤教翔云数字教材应用平台"已覆盖全省1.94万所学校，全年师生活跃人次达5279万；"万卷要义"大模型学习深度接入平台，覆盖586所试点校；人民社启动"出版AI生态示范项目"，36个AI智能体覆盖150个业务场景；报媒板块受益于新媒体广告增长，收入yoy+14.58%，毛利率同比提升7.64pct，展现数字化转型红利。
　　盈利预测和投资评级：公司背靠广东省，具备地区人口优势，主业稳健向上，积极拥抱AI和新业态，未来业绩有望保持稳定，据此我们预测公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为87.04/87.54/87.9亿元，归母净利润分别为11.08/11.56/12.07亿元，对应PE分别为10/10/9x，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市场竞争加剧风险、学生数量增长不及预期风险、科技创新进度不及预期风险、税收政策变化风险、行业政策变化风险等。

　　公司发布2026年一季度报告：26Q1实现总营业收入19.69亿元（yoy-6.81%）；归母净利润3.00亿元（yoy-6.23%）；扣非后净利润2.79亿元（yoy-7.85%）。一季度营收与利润小幅下滑，我们推测主要系一般图书销售季节性偏弱、低毛利贸易业务持续收缩所致，核心主业教材教辅业务保持稳健，盈利质量持续优化，净利率同比提升。公司依托广东省人口与生源优势稳固，AI教育与内容融合持续推进，长期成长逻辑不变，维持“买入”评级。
　　主业盈利韧性凸显，盈利质量持续优化
　　公司教育出版发行主业保持稳健，春季教材教辅供应顺利落地，广东区域刚需支撑强劲。26Q1公司毛利率40.23%，同比小幅回落约2.06pct，我们推测主要系一般图书出版业务成本波动所致，预计主业教材教辅业务盈利水平仍保持稳健。尽管毛利率短期承压，但公司净利率逆势提升，26Q1归母净利率15.25%，同比提升0.1pct，我们预计主要受益于费用率的持续优化，低毛利贸易业务的收缩也进一步带动盈利质量提升。
　　数智化转型纵深推进，AI教育与IP衍生落地提速
　　AI教育领域，“数智南传”战略持续落地，粤教翔云数字教材平台用户规模与活跃度稳步提升，“万卷要义”大模型试点范围进一步扩大，AI助教、AI助学等场景规模化应用持续深化，数字教育生态不断完善。内容创新方面，公司加快“出版+影视”融合，推进优质图书IP向微短剧、漫剧等形态转化，文化内容多元变现路径持续拓宽，成长动能充足。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测10.99/11.73/12.48亿元。26年可比公司Wind一致预期PE均值12.51x，考虑公司享受广东人口结构优势，且AI教育布局领先、分红回报稳健，维持26年14xPE估值，维持目标价17.45元。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：K12学龄人口不及预期、出版行业政策变动、AI教育及短剧业务商业化落地不及预期。