Earnings forecast and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts of RMB1,672/1,815/ 1,928mn. To reflect Phoenix Media’s leading position, sound asset quality, and appealing dividend payouts, we value the stock at 13.5x 2027E PE, above its peers' average of 9.59x 2027E PE on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB9.63 (previous: RMB10.51, based on 16x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY.

　　凤凰传媒发布2026年半年报：26H1实现营业收入61.00亿元（yoy-14.24%）；归母净利润10.92亿元（yoy-31.12%）；扣非后净利润10.10亿元（yoy-33.27%）。其中26Q2营收32.16亿元（yoy-17.3%，qoq+11.5%），归母净利润6.69亿元（yoy-38.0%，qoq+58.3%）。受图书销售量减少影响，公司上半年收入及盈利有所承压，但出版发行主业竞争优势仍然稳固，经营现金流显著改善，并延续稳定分红政策，高比例股东回报体现公司优质资产属性。同时，公司持续推进智慧教育、AI应用及数字化转型，长期发展空间仍具备支撑。维持“买入”评级。
　　收入有所下滑，出版发行核心竞争力保持稳固
　　26H1公司营业收入61.00亿元，同比下降14.24%，主要系图书销售量减少影响。其中，出版业务收入21.87亿元，同比下降13.51%，毛利率36.02%，同比-2.57pct；发行业务收入47.57亿元，同比下降19.34%，毛利率26.55%，同比-5.40pct。短期收入下滑主要反映图书零售需求及行业景气变化，公司在教材教辅、内容资源及发行渠道方面积累的竞争优势未发生变化。受主营业务毛利率下降影响，公司综合毛利率同比下降6.48pct至37.31%。费用端，公司销售/管理/研发费用同比分别-11.15%/-9.70%/-18.02%，对应费用率分别为12.03%/11.50%/0.26%，销售/管理费用率受收入下降影响同比小幅上升0.42pct/0.58pct，研发费用率基本保持稳定，费用控制整体保持稳定。
　　出版发行龙头优势稳固，数字化转型持续推进
　　公司作为国内出版发行龙头，内容资源及渠道优势持续巩固。教育出版方面，截至报告期，公司拥有19套中小学课标教材，在全国29个省（自治区、直辖市）覆盖超过4000万学生；发行端，公司旗下凤凰新华拥有1375个线下网点，并构建线上线下一体化服务体系，持续提升综合文化服务能力。公司积极推进数字化转型，“智羚学伴、教伴”等AI教育产品持续拓展，“小羚AI学”累计注册用户超过100万，AI赋能教育出版场景逐步落地。
　　现金流显著改善，高比例分红延续，长期配置价值凸显
　　26H1公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额6.09亿元，同比增长203.93%，主要系资金回笼增加，盈利质量及现金创造能力持续体现。公司拟实施2026年中期利润分配方案，以2026年6月30日总股本25.45亿股为基数，每10股派发现金股利1.00元（含税），合计派发现金股利2.54亿元。公司持续保持稳定分红政策，叠加充裕现金储备和优质资产负债表，有望提升长期投资吸引力。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测16.72/18.15/19.28亿元。27年可比公司Wind一致预期PE均值9.59x，考虑公司行业龙头地位、资产质量优质、高比例分红持续兑现，给予27年13.5xPE估值，目标价9.63元（原26年目标价10.51元，对应26年16xPE）。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：教材政策变动；一般图书销售不及预期；纸张成本上涨；数字化业务推进不及预期。

Phoenix Media released its 1Q26 report:1Q26 revenue reached RMB2,884mn(-10.59%YoY);attributable NP was RMB423mn(-16.53%YoY);recurring NP was RMB396mn(-17.63%YoY).The short-term pressure on 1Q26 results is mainly due to structural adjustments in the book industry,standardization of market-oriented educational supplements,and seasonal factors.The company's publishing and distribution core business barriers remain deep,earnings quality remains robust,and long-term allocation value remains unchanged.Maintain BUY.
GPM temporarily soft,but profit quality robust
In 1Q26,the company's GPM was 35.68%,down 3.40pp YoY,which we attribute mainly to the off-season for general book sales and the impact of standardized market-oriented educational supplements.In 1Q26,the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 11.49/11.71/0.31%,-0.16/-0.12/+0.08pp YoY,demonstrating significant results in refined expense management.The attributable NPM was 14.67%,with slight fluctuations YoY,and the overall earnings mix continues to optimize.
Focusing on main business
As anational leader in publishing and distribution,the company sees demand for textbooks and educational supplements remain solid,ranking second in market share of standard textbooks and maintaining aleading position in the book retail market share.Its education informatization business(zxxk.com)has astrong user base alongside leading service coverage and user scale,and AI education applications are steadily advancing.The company continues to optimize its asset structure,divest non-core businesses,and focus on its publishing and distribution main business,with aclear long-term growth path.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB1,672/1,815/1,928mn.Given the company's industry leadership,high-quality assets,and sustained high dividend payout ratio,we assign a16x 2026 PE,maintaining our target price of RMB10.51.Maintain BUY.
Risks:unfavorable changes in teaching material policies,general book sales missing our estimates,rising paper costs,digitalization progress missing our estimates.

　　凤凰传媒发布2026年一季报：26Q1实现营业收入28.84亿元（yoy-10.59%）；归母净利润4.23亿元（yoy-16.53%）；扣非后净利润3.96亿元（yoy-17.63%）。一季度业绩短期承压，主要系图书行业结构性调整、市场化教辅规范化及季节性因素影响，公司出版发行主业壁垒稳固，盈利质量保持扎实，长期配置价值不变，维持“买入”评级。
　　毛利率阶段性承压，费用管控高效，盈利质量稳健
　　26Q1公司毛利率35.68%，同比下降3.40pct，我们推测主要系一般图书销售淡季及市场化教辅规范化的影响。26Q1销售/管理/研发费用率分别为11.49%/11.71%/0.31%，同比分别-0.16pct/-0.12pct/+0.08pct，费用端精细化管控成效显著。归母净利率14.67%，同比小幅波动，整体盈利结构持续优化。
　　出版发行龙头地位稳固，资源优化聚焦主业
　　公司作为全国出版发行龙头，教材教辅刚需基本盘稳固，课标教材市占率位居行业第二，图书零售市场份额保持领先。教育信息化业务（学科网）用户基础雄厚，服务覆盖范围与用户规模持续领先，AI教育应用稳步推进。公司持续优化资产结构、剥离非核心业务、聚焦出版发行主业，长期成长路径清晰。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测16.72/18.15/19.28亿元。26年可比公司Wind一致预期PE均值11.4x，考虑公司行业龙头地位、资产质量优质、高比例分红持续兑现，给予26年16xPE估值，维持目标价10.51元。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：教材政策变动；一般图书销售不及预期；纸张成本上涨；数字化业务推进不及预期。

Phoenix Media released its 2025 annual report: revenue reached RMB12,347mn (-9.25% YoY), attributable NP was RMB1,795mn (+12.37% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB1,552mn (-24.03% YoY), with both revenue and attributable NP slightly below our previous expectations (RMB12,766/1,904mn), which we attribute mainly to tighter standardization of market-based supplementary education materials. The company declared a total cash dividend of RMB1,272mn for the full year, accounting for 56.71% of its annual attributable NP, maintaining stable dividend payouts for three consecutive years. In April 2026, the company announced a public listing for the transfer of a 61.03% equity stake and creditor's rights in Phoenix Legend Pictures. If the transaction proceeds, it will help optimize resource allocation, reduce management costs, and further focus on core business development. With industry-wide structural adjustments, we believe the company maintains a leading competitive position in the market, offers stable shareholder returns, and presents solid long-term investment appeal. We maintain BUY.
Book publishing under structural adjustment, while company leadership solid
In 2025, the company's publishing/distribution/software/data services/other business revenues changed by -5.09/-9.84/-13.15/-0.84/+20.96% YoY, with corresponding GPM changes of -0.13/+0.41/-0.49/-7.35/-0.92pp YoY. We attribute the revenue decline to both the overall YoY decrease in book retail market's gross sales value (-2.24% YoY) and net sales value (-3.80% YoY) (OpenBook data) and the impact of standardized market-oriented educational supplements, with educational supplement publishing/distribution revenues down 5.33/9.07% YoY. The company maintains leading industry position in comprehensive strength and content resources, ranking second in market share of primary and secondary school standard textbooks; its share of net retail sales in the overall retail market reached 2.76%, ranking top in multiple sub-markets; its zxxk.com has grown into a leading provider of digital education content in China serving over 40,000 partner schools with over 70mn registered users and over 4mn monthly active teachers.
Expense ratio edged up, but dividend payout ratio stable
In 2025, the company's GPM reached 40.11%, up 1.47pp YoY; the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios rose by 0.65/0.97/0.04pp YoY, mainly due to relatively rigid expenses and increased investment in projects and platform construction; the NPM improved by 3pp YoY to 14.73%, primarily benefiting from preferential tax policies for cultural enterprise restructuring. At end-2025, the company proposed a cash dividend of RMB0.4/share, combined with the interim dividend, totaling RMB1,272mn in annual cash dividends, maintaining stable dividend payouts for three consecutive years with an average payout ratio exceeding 60%, demonstrating its operational stability and commitment to long-term shareholder returns.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
In the short term, considering the structural adjustment in book industry demand and the impact of standardized market-oriented educational supplements, we forecast the company's 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB1,672/1,815/1,928mn (revised down by 8.6%/1.4%/- from previous estimates). Given the company's overall leading industry position, potential further optimization of resource allocation, and the empowerment potential of AI applications for its main business, we assign a 16x 2026 PE multiple, above its peers’ average of 11.44x on Wind consensus, resulting in a target price of RMB10.51 (previous: RMB10.47, on 14x 2025 PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: unfavorable changes in teaching material policies, general book sales missing our estimates, rising paper costs, digitalization progress missing our estimates.