Track 6F Shipment and Price Upside in Peak Season
发布时间:2026-08-21 来源:华泰证券
Tinci’s 1H26 revenue was RMB14,710mn(+109.3%YoY),the recurring net profit(NP)was RMB2,807mn(+1,096.7%YoY),and the attributable NP climbed by 967.9%YoY to RMB2,861mn,driven by YoY growth in electrolyte shipments,as well as more favorable S/D dynamics that pushed up LiPF6 prices and materially improved the GPM.We expect LiPF6 prices to stay high amid tight supply,and the company’s electrolyte shipments and profitability to trend upward.Maintain BUY.
2Q26 shipments grew rapidly QoQ
For 2Q26,revenue was RMB8,036mn(+127.0%YoY,+20.4%QoQ),the attributable NP was RMB1,207mn(+920.0%YoY,-27.1%QoQ),and the recurring NP was RMB1,247mn(+1,142.8%YoY,-20.1%QoQ).We estimate 2Q26 electrolyte shipments at over 240,000 tonnes(rising by around 20%QoQ)and the electrolyte net profit at over RMB5,000 per tonne.We attribute the slight QoQ decline in per-tonne net profit mainly to adowntick in LiPF6 prices and rising lithium carbonate prices.On our estimates,in 2Q26,ferric phosphate sales reached breakeven,the daily chemical profit was about RMB50mn,and non-recurring losses were about RMB40mn(mainly associated with equipment sales).
ESS and overseas markets pushed up electrolyte sales
According to the interim report,1H26 electrolyte sales volume exceeded 440,000 tonnes(growing by around 41%YoY),of which ESS electrolyte sales volume grew by over 100%YoY.Driven by OEM plants in North America and Europe,overseas electrolyte sales value rose by over 126%YoY,and fully covered its key accounts.The company’s European electrolyte toll manufacturing plant completed technical upgrades and now serves many key accounts,with sales to some European clients showing significant growth.The company has signed long-term contracts with some high-quality ESS suppliers in China,and has successfully commercialized electrolyte formulas with ahigher LiFSI addition ratio across ESS,rapid LFP charging,sodium-ion batteries,and high-nickel batteries.According to the company’s investor-relations activity record updated on 10 July,as of 1H26,the average addition ratio of LiFSI in electrolytes was about 1.5-2.0%and exceeded 4%in some high-end fast-charging batteries.We expect the average addition ratio to reach 3-4%in the future.
LiPF6 prices are likely to rebound
According to Wind,in 1Q26/in 2Q26/since 3Q26(1 July to 20 August),the LiPF6 ASPs were RMB131,800/108,200/103,400 per tonne,and the ASPs of lithium carbonate were RMB152,300/171,700/150,500 per tonne.Excluding lithium carbonate costs,LiPF6 prices were RMB93,700/65,300/65,800 per tonne.As downstream power battery and ESS demand enters apeak season,we expect LiPF6 prices to rebound,driving up the company’s electrolyte profitability.According to the company’s investor relations activity record updated on 10 July,its planned 35ktpa LiPF6 capacity could come online in 2H26,which we expect to contribute new earnings increments.The company has started lithium mining and strategic procurement in core producing countries such as Nigeria and Zimbabwe,and is seeking to acquire phosphate rock and fluorite assets.Currently,its FePO4 capacity is 330ktpa.Rising utilization of ferric phosphate capacity could drive up earnings going forward.
Maintain BUY
Considering off-season LiPF6 price drops,we slightly revise down our electrolyte price assumptions.We thus cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 4.9/6.5/5.9%to RMB6,821/7,190/7,577mn(previous:RMB7,172/7,694/8,052mn).We value the stock at 19x 2026E PE,at par with its peers’average on Wind consensus(previous:24x).Our target price is RMB63.65(previous:RMB84.48).Maintain BUY.
Risks:weaker electrolyte demand than we expect,lower LiPF6 prices than we expect,disappointing LiFSI adoption and profitability.