Qianyuan Power's 2025 revenue was RMB3,285mn(+69.98%YoY)and attributable net profit was RMB600mn(+175.02%YoY),with the latter coming in at the midpoint of the company's profit alert range of RMB567-633mn;recurring net profit was RMB598mn(+153.16%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue was RMB1,116mn(+138.98%YoY)and attributable net profit was RMB107mn(+327.68%YoY).In 2024,attributable net profit hit ahistorical high as water inflows jumped YoY,and net operating cash flow rose by 93.6%YoY to RMB2,434mn.For 2025,DPS was RMB0.39,with total cash dividends of RMB167mn implying adividend payout ratio(DPR)of 27.8%.Given that strong DPR upside potential could enhance the value of cash flow in valuation,we maintain our BUY rating.
Hydropower output rose by 80.9%YoY in 2025
In 1H25,water inflows fell by 23.0%YoY.However,from 3Q25 onwards,significantly above-average water inflows enabled the full-year level to rise by 45%YoY.For 2025,total power output rose by 71.9%YoY to 12.12bn kWh,with hydropower output up by 80.9%YoY to 11,452mn kWh.For 2025,average on-grid tariff for hydropower(tax included)was RMB0.3037/kWh(-0.5%YoY).As power output grew notably YoY,the hydropower segment's 2025 GPM rose by 6.81pp YoY to 58.67%.While the major flood season for 2026 has not yet arrived–introducing some uncertainty around hydropower output–for now,we assume that ample water inflows could continue in to 2026.
PV power capacity contracted,GPM fell YoY
The company adjusted the installed capacity of Guangzhao PV Power Plant(Gangping)/Mamaya PV Power Plant(Yongxin)/Dongjing Power Plant(Zhenliang)from 300/300/150MW to 228.73/224.64/113.18MW(totaling 584.55MW)based on the Document No.136,which requires capacity to be registered based on AC-side rather than DC-side ratings.In 2025,while the average on-grid PV power tariff rose by 3.0%YoY to RMB0.3711/kWh,PV power output declined by 7.2%YoY to 668mn kWh and GPM fell by 11.15pp YoY to 20.80%.In our view,market-traded new energy electricity could continue to weigh on the company's PV power generation profitability in 2026.
Net operating cash flow increased by 93.6%YoY
In 2025,financial expenses fell by 23.4%YoY to RMB215mn.Benefiting from rapid YoY growth in net profit driven by above-average water inflows,net operating cash flow increased by 93.6%YoY to RMB2,434mn in 2025.While cash spending on building new PV power plants and buying fixed assets increased by 120.9%YoY to RMB370mn in 2025,the company's free cash flow(simplified as net operating cash flow minus cash payments on fixed assets etc.minus financial expenses)grew notably by 128.6%YoY to RMB1,849mn.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that:1)the company's 2025 power output beat our expectations and 2)hydropower plant water inflows have been improving in 2026 ytd,we raise 2026/2027 power output assumptions by 26.2/27.4%to 12.8/12.9bn kWh,thereby lifting 2026/2027 attributable net profit estimates by 24.3/20.7%to RMB637/714mn.We introduce 2028 attributable net profit forecast of RMB721mn,implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.49/1.67/1.69,with 2026/2027 EPS averaging RMB1.58.As our upward revisions are mainly based on continued above-average water inflows,which is anatural factor carrying strong uncertainty,we apply 16.0x to 2026-2027E average PE.Our target price is RMB25.27(previous:RMB23.76,based on 20.0x 2025-2026E average PE).
Risks:water inflows/DPR rise below our expectations;power tariff policy changes.

　　黔源电力发布年报，2025年实现营收32.85亿元（yoy+69.98%），归母净利6.00亿元（yoy+175.02%），为公司业绩预告区间5.67-6.33亿元的中值，扣非净利5.98亿元（yoy+153.16%）。其中4Q25实现营收11.16亿元（yoy+138.98%），归母净利1.07亿元（yoy+327.68%）。2025年因来水同比大幅偏丰，公司归母净利润创历史新高，经营性净现金流同比+93.6%至24.34亿元。2025年公司DPS为0.39元/股，现金分红金额为1.67亿元，分红比例27.8%。考虑公司分红比例有较大提升潜力、从而现金流价值在估值上的体现有望增强，维持“买入”评级。
　　2025年公司水电发电量同比+80.9%，平均上网电价相对稳健
　　1H25公司来水同比减少23.0%，由于3Q25以来公司来水同比大幅偏丰，扭转全年来水态势，2025年，公司来水同比增加45%，实现发电量121.20亿千瓦时，同比+71.9%，其中水电发电量同比+80.9%至114.52亿千瓦时。2025年公司水电平均上网电价（含税）为0.3037元/千瓦时，同比仅-0.5%。得益于发电量同比高增，公司2025年水电板块毛利率同比+6.81pp至58.67%。当前主汛期未来临，公司2026年水电发电量存在不确定性，我们暂预计延续2025年的偏丰态势。
　　光伏装机容量调整，毛利率同比下降
　　由于公司光照光伏电站（岗坪光伏电站）、马马崖光伏电站（永新光伏电站）、董箐光伏电站（镇良光伏电站）的装机容量按照“136号文”精神从直流侧容量登记改为交流侧容量登记，其各自装机容量从300/300/150MW分别改为228.73/224.64/113.18MW，合计584.55MW。2025年，公司光伏业务虽然上网电价同比+3.0%至0.3711元/千瓦时，但由于发电量同比-7.2%至6.68亿千瓦时，毛利率同比-11.15pp至20.80%。我们认为随着新能源市场化推进，公司光伏业务2026年盈利能力仍将一定程度承压。
　　财务费用维持下行趋势，经营性净现金流同比+93.6%
　　2025年，公司财务费用延续下行趋势，同比-23.4%至2.15亿元。得益于来水同比偏丰带来的净利润同比快速提升，2025年公司经营净现金流同比+93.6%至24.34亿元；虽然由于推进新光伏项目建设，公司2025年购建固定资产等现金流支出同比+120.9%至3.7亿元，公司自由现金流（简略测算自由现金流=经营净现金流-购建固定资产等现金流支出-财务费用）仍同比大幅增加128.6%至18.49亿元。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司2025年发电量超预期，且今年水电站所在流域来水持续改善，我们上调公司2026-27年发电量26.2%/27.4%至128/129亿千瓦时，从而上调公司2026-27年归母净利润24.3%/20.7%至6.37/7.14亿元，引入2028年归母净利润预测值7.21亿元，对应EPS为1.49/1.67/1.69元，2026-27E平均EPS1.58元。参考可比公司2026-27EPE的Wind一致预期均值17.8x，考虑上调公司盈利预测主要是预期来水偏丰持续，但来水为天然因素，未来不确定较大，给予公司16.0x2026-27E平均PE，对应目标价25.27元（前值23.76元基于20.0x2025-26E平均PE）。
　　风险提示：来水/分红比例提升不及预期，电价政策变化风险。