JSTI Group's 2025 revenue fell by 11.85%YoY to RMB4,168mn;attributable net profit(NP)fell by 89.66%YoY to RMB23.51mn,missing our forecast of RMB177mn,mainly due to aGPM decline caused by intensified competition and substantial forex losses.For 4Q25/1Q26,revenue was RMB1,400/870mn(-22.86/+7.58%YoY),and attributable NP was RMB-56/41mn(-175.00/-4.63%YoY).We believe the company's 1Q26 traditional business revenue has stabilized.Meanwhile,JSTI Group is developing emerging businesses to gain afirst-mover edge in fields such as digitalization,urban lifelines,the low-altitude economy,and multimodal transport.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Intensified competition pressured GPM
For 2025,overall GPM was 32.15%(-2.62pp YoY).For 4Q25/1Q26,GPM was 35.24/22.70%(-4.54/-6.37pp YoY).We attribute GPM declines to soft demand and resulting intensified competition.By segment,revenues from survey and design/comprehensive testing services were RMB2,655/1,184mn(-14.54/-7.27%YoY),and GPMs were 30.99/38.67%(-3.87/-2.91pp YoY).By region,revenues within the home province/outside the home province/from overseas markets were RMB1,967/1,523/678mn(-8.60/-19.24/-1.80%YoY),and GPMs were 41.51/22.50/26.63%(-3.79/-3.09/-0.33pp YoY).
Increased forex losses further dented 2025 profit margins
For 2025,overall expense ratio was 20.68%(+2.37pp YoY),and sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 2.11/11.90/5.25/1.43%(+0.13/+0.90/-0.23/+1.58pp YoY).Financial expenses grew by RMB66.78mn YoY,mainly due to forex losses of RMB53.31mn(vs forex gains of RMB20.98mn in 2024).The proportion of impairment expenses in 2025 fell by 0.26pp YoY to 11.34%.Overall,for 2025,attributable NPM was 0.56%(-4.24pp YoY).For 1Q26,overall expense ratio was 18.52%(-3.94pp YoY),and attributable NPM was 4.72%(-0.60pp YoY).
Operating cash flow improved significantly
The company's 2025 net operating cash flow was RMB452mn,representing aYoY inflow increase of RMB190mn.For 2025,cash receipts-to-revenue/cash payment-to-cost ratios were 109.6/55.1%(+9.95/+6.57pp YoY).For 1Q26,net operating cash flow was-RMB94mn,representing aYoY inflow increase of RMB383mn.The cash receipts-to-revenue/cash payment-to-cost ratios were 137.9/73.3%(+19.72/-20.04pp YoY).As of the end of 1Q26,the company's asset-liability ratio was 44.16%(+1.25pp YoY,+1.06pp vs the end of 2025),and its interest-bearing debt ratio was 20.85%(+2.81pp YoY,+3.75pp vs the end of 2025).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
To factor in slowing demand and pressured GPM caused by intensified competition,we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 11.26/15.80%to RMB170/178mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB189mn.We value the stock at 58x 2026E PE,at par with its peers'average on Wind consensus.Our updated target price is RMB7.80(previous:RMB9.67,based on 69x 2025E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Slower order intakes than we expect,slower debt resolution than we expect,disappointing low-altitude business growth.

　　报告要点：
　　业绩短期承压，盈利质量持续优化
　　2025年公司实现营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别为41.68/0.24/-0.24亿元，同比-11.85%/-89.66%/-113.40%，主要系新启动项目减少、市场竞争加剧，公司传统业务收入同比下滑及非经常性汇兑损失，较大程度挤压当期利润空间。2025年公司实现经营性净现金流4.52亿元，同比+72.89%，占当期净利润比例达1336.45%，盈利质量有所优化。2026年Q1公司实现营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别为8.71/0.41/0.33亿元，同比+7.58%/-4.63%/-7.28%。
　　毛利率有所下滑，整体费用有所上升
　　2025年公司毛利率为32.15%，同比-2.61pct；期间费用率为20.69%，同比+2.38pct；其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.11%/11.90%/5.25%/1.43%，同比分别+0.13/+0.90/-0.23/+1.58pct。2026Q1公司毛利率为22.70%，同比-6.37pct。
　　科技驱动业务转型，低空经济与数字智慧构筑新增长极
　　公司以"数字化+国际化"双轮驱动战略为引领，加速向智库型科技企业转型。数字化转型方面，公司积极推进新型道路材料、低空经济、城市安全、绿色低碳、物流五大方向，持续深耕BIM、数字孪生、AI设计及智慧运维等前沿技术应用，打造"业务中台+管理中台"双中台架构，驱动各业务院及职能中心智能化升级，打造核心业绩增长点。低空经济领域取得标志性突破：作为主要参编单位发布全国首批省级低空基础设施标准（《低空起降场布设指南》《低空空域划设指南》），并在WTC大会上首发"低空AI综合巡检平台"，构建覆盖空域管理、运行监管至智能巡检的全链条解决方案。海外拓展方面，子公司Eptisa于4月与埃塞俄比亚工业部签署首个合作协议，涉足三大综合性农业工业园区可行性研究；同期与越南交通大学共建越南首个数字交通研究中心，服务"两廊一圈"战略。
　　投资建议与盈利预测
　　我们预计公司2026-2028年营收分别为40.09/39.29/39.68亿元，归母净利润分别为1.69/1.75/1.87亿元，对应EPS为0.13/0.14/0.15元/股，对应PE估值分别为51/49/46倍，维持“增持”的评级。
　　风险提示
　　基础设施投资、环保方面的政策变化的风险；投资并购整合的风险；低空经济发展不及预期的风险；商誉减值风险；汇率波动风险。

　　苏交科发布25年及26Q1业绩：2025年实现营收41.68亿元（yoy-11.85%），归母净利2351.47万元（yoy-89.66%），低于我们的预期（1.77亿元），主要由于行业竞争加剧毛利率下滑、汇兑损失较多所致。25Q4/26Q1分别实现营收14.0/8.7亿元，同比-22.86%/+7.58%，归母净利-0.56/0.41亿元，同比-175%/-4.63%。我们认为公司26Q1传统业务收入有所企稳，同时积极发展新兴业务，数字化、城市生命线、低空经济、多式联运等领域率先发展，维持“增持”评级。
　　行业竞争加剧毛利率承压
　　公司2025年综合毛利率32.15%，同比-2.62pct，25Q4/26Q1毛利率分别为35.24%/22.7%，同比-4.54/-6.37pct，我们判断主要是行业需求承压导致竞争加剧。分业务看，勘察设计/综合检测业务分别实现营收26.55/11.84亿元，同比-14.54%/-7.27%，毛利率分别为30.99%/38.67%，同比-3.87/-2.91pct。分区域看，省内/省外/海外分别实现收入19.67/15.23/6.78亿元，同比-8.6%/-19.24%/-1.8%，毛利率分别为41.51%/22.5%/26.63%，同比-3.79/-3.09/-0.33pct。
　　汇兑损失增加进一步拖累25年利润率
　　25年期间费用率为20.68%，同比+2.37pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率2.11%/11.90%/5.25%/1.43%，同比+0.13/+0.9/-0.23/+1.58pct。财务费用同比增加6678万元，主要归因于25年产生汇兑损失5331万元，24年为汇兑收益2098万元。25年减值支出占比同比-0.26pct至11.34%，综合影响下，25年归母净利率0.56%，同比-4.24pct。26Q1期间费用率为18.52%，同比-3.94pct，归母净利率为4.72%，同比-0.60pct。
　　经营性现金流显著改善
　　公司25年经营性现金流净额为4.52亿元，同比多流入1.9亿元，全年收/付现比109.6%/55.1%，同比+9.95/+6.57pct。26Q1实现经营性现金流净额-0.94亿元，同比多流入3.83亿元，收/付现比137.9%/73.3%，同比+19.72/-20.04pct。截至26Q1末，公司资产负债率44.16%，同比+1.25pct，较25年末+1.06pct，有息负债率20.85%，同比+2.81pct，较25年末+3.75pct。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到行业需求放缓，竞争加剧毛利率承压，我们下调未来收入规模、毛利率水平，调整公司26-28年归母净利润至1.70/1.78/1.89亿元（较前值分别调整-11.26%/-15.80%/-）。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为58倍，给予公司26年58xPE，调整目标价至7.80元（前值9.67元，对应25年69xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新签订单增长不及预期，化债不及预期，低空经济业务发展不及预期。