Yangzhou Chenhua New Material Chemical has released 2025 and 1Q26 results, reporting 2025 revenue of RMB875mn (-3.99% YoY), an attributable net profit of RMB65.98mn (-21.35% YoY), and a recurring net profit of RMB33.97mn (-37.38% YoY). For 4Q25, revenue was RMB222mn (-1.66% YoY, +1.67% QoQ) with an attributable net profit of RMB13.17mn (-23.46% YoY, +2,095.41% QoQ). For 1Q26, revenue was RMB264mn (+22.3% YoY, +19.1% QoQ); the attributable net profit was RMB26mn (-4.3% YoY, +96.3% QoQ). For 2025, the attributable net profit missed our prior estimate of RMB110mn due to tax repayments, reduced government subsidies, and industry headwinds. Considering cost pass-through pressures amid the US-Iran-Israel conflict, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts. That said, we maintain OVERWEIGHT given upcoming capacity expansions.
Net profit fell; GPMs for major products expanded
For 2025, surfactant sales volume reached 69,700 tonnes (+2.6% YoY), generating revenue of RMB714mn (-0.9% YoY) with the gross margin at 22% (+1.2pp YoY). The company strengthened downstream application development, lifting both sales volume and margins. Flame retardant sales volume fell to 11,900 tonnes (-20.6% YoY) (revenue: RMB93mn, -23% YoY), although the gross margin improved to 12% (+2.4pp YoY) as accident-affected production lines remained under renovation. Silicone rubber sales volume rose to 4,000 tonnes (+2.9% YoY) (revenue: RMB57mn, +24% YoY), with the gross margin improving to 24% (+2.0pp YoY). The full-year overall gross margin increased to 21.33% (+1.66pp YoY). An RMB17mn reduction in other income (primarily driven by government subsidies) drove the decline in annual profit.
US-Iran-Israel conflict may exert pressure on product margins
On baiinfo.com and oilchem.net data, in 1Q26, the average selling price for polyetheramine fell by 6% vs 2025 to RMB11,708/tonne with the price spread narrowing by RMB1,472/tonne. Weak downstream demand and ample industry supply continue exerting pressure on prices and margins. The company’s gross margin for 1Q26 was 22.4% (+1.8pp YoY, -3.2pp QoQ). While the US-Iran-Israel conflict drove polyetheramine prices up by 25% to RMB14,400/tonne as of 3 April (vs end-February), weak procurement demand limited cost pass-through, further compressing profitability – the price spread was RMB1,293/tonne below the end-February level. We note that near-term margin pressure persists, but the upcoming 35ktpa alkyl polyglycoside project should deliver incremental earnings, sustaining long-term earnings-growth prospects.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given profitability headwinds from the US-Iran-Israel conflict, we lower our 2026/ 2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB89/108/127mn (-27/-19% vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates of RMB122/132mn), with EPS of RMB0.42/0.50/0.59. The company’s peers trade at an average 2026E PE of 33x on Wind consensus, and accounting for its limited cost pass-through capability, we assign the stock 31x 2026E PE (previously 26x 2025E), deriving our new target price of RMB12.71 (previous: RMB13.26).
Risks: slower demand recovery than we expect; industry overcapacity; delays in new projects.

　　晨化股份发布年报与一季报，2025年实现营收8.75亿元（yoy-3.99%），归母净利6598.33万元（yoy-21.35%），扣非净利3396.65万元（yoy-37.38%）。其中Q4实现营收2.22亿元（yoy-1.66%，qoq+1.67%），归母净利1317.29万元（yoy-23.46%，qoq+2095.41%）。26Q1实现营收2.64亿元（yoy+22.3%，qoq+19.1%），归母净利0.26亿元（yoy-4.3%，qoq+96.3%）。公司25年业绩低于我们前次预期（1.1亿元），主要受公司补缴税款、政府补助减少、行业景气承压等因素影响。考虑美以伊冲突下，产品成本传导压力较大，盈利能力或将承压，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润预期。但考虑公司未来增量项目贡献，维持“增持”评级。
　　其他收益减少致全年净利下滑，主要产品毛利率均有提升
　　2025年公司表面活性剂实现销量6.97万吨，同比+2.6%，对应收入为7.14亿元，同比-0.9%，毛利率为22%，同比+1.2pct，报告期内公司加强了产品应用领域的拓展，销量和毛利率均有所上升。阻燃剂实现销量1.19万吨，同比-20.60%，收入为0.93亿元，同比-23%，毛利率为12%，同比+2.4pct，25年事故车间仍处于停车改造状态，销量有所下滑。硅橡胶实现销量0.4万吨，同比+2.9%，对应收入0.57亿元，同比+24%，毛利率同比+2.0pct至24%。全年综合毛利率为21.33%，同比+1.66pct。主要受政府补助减少所致，25年其他收益同比减少0.17亿元，致全年利润下滑。
　　美以伊冲突或导致公司产品景气承压
　　据百川盈孚与隆众资讯，26Q1聚醚胺均价较25年下降6%至11708元/吨，价差下降1472元/吨。受下游需求偏弱以及行业供给较多，产品价格价差进一步承压。26Q1公司毛利率为22.4%，同环比分别+1.8/-3.2pct。受美以伊冲突影响，聚醚胺价格呈现宽幅上行态势，但受需求端采购意愿较弱，产品成本传导能力较为有限，盈利能力进一步承压。截至4月3日，聚醚胺价格为14400元/吨，较二月底上涨25%，价差较二月底下降1293元/吨。成本压力下预计聚醚胺短期仍将承压运行。但未来公司3.5万吨/年烷基糖苷等项目陆续投产后，有望为公司带来增量业绩，长期仍具增长前景。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑美以伊冲突下公司产品盈利能力或将承压，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润预期，预计26-28年归母净利润为0.89/1.07/1.26亿元（26-27年前值1.22/1.32亿元，下调27%/19%），对应EPS为0.41/0.50/0.59元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期33xPE，考虑公司产品顺价压力较大，给予公司26年31xPE，目标价为12.71元（前值13.26元，对应26倍25年PE）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：需求恢复不及预期，行业产能过剩风险，新项目进展不达预期。