ESS Revenue Growth Promising
发布时间:2026-05-27 来源:华泰证券
For 2025,revenue was RMB6,950mn(+6.26%YoY),attributable net profit was RMB743mn(+7.53%YoY)and recurring net profit was RMB688mn(+7.92%YoY).Attributable net profit was 41%below our previous estimate,mainly because the company entered the energy storage system(ESS)sector in 2H25.Increased upfront investment in sales channels,management and R&D drove atemporary rise in the expense ratio.At the same time,ESS revenue had not yet been recognized at scale and could gradually contribute from 2Q26 onwards.The company is aleader in inverters and ESS,and its new business lines could continue to benefit from global ESS demand growth.Our target price is RMB93.96.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM rose YoY
For 2025,the company's overall GPM/attributable NPM stood at 34.49/10.69%(+2.92/+0.13pp YoY).NPM remained largely flat YoY,as the GPM improvement offset the expense ratio hike.For 2025,sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 7.78/4.79/7.30%(+0.75/+1.68/+1.43pp YoY),as the company entered the ESS sector in 2H25,with initial penetration and early scaling resulting in higher overseas marketing channel expenses and R&D spending.
Inverters:optimized product mix lifted gross profit
The company entered the ESS sector in 2H25 and recorded revenue of RMB148mn in 2025,accounting for 2.13%of total revenue.According to the company's earnings call,ESS revenue recognized in 1Q26 exceeded RMB10mn.We expect this segment to enter scaled revenue recognition in 2Q26.In April 2026,the company secured orders for over 500 sets of commercial&industrial ESS and over 10,000 sets of residential ESS.In full-year 2026,it could ship 5,000-10,000 sets of commercial&industrial ESS and 100,000 sets of residential ESS.The traditional inverter segment maintained high-quality growth.For 2025,revenue from grid-tied PV inverters was RMB2,996mn,with aGPM of 24.22%(+5.54pp YoY).Revenue from energy storage inverters was RMB1,632mn(+185.31%YoY),with its revenue share rising to 23.47%(+14.73pp YoY)and GPM reaching 31.75%(+4.27pp YoY).The improvement in GPM for both grid-tied and energy storage inverters was mainly due to the company's proactive optimization of its strategic deployment.Against abackdrop of intensified competition,it continued to improve its customer mix and increased the proportion of commercial&industrial application scenarios.In addition,the company's subsidiary Ginlong Smart New Energy's power production and residential PV power generation businesses were on track.For 2025,revenue from residential PV power generation systems/new energy power production was RMB1,444/587mn,remaining largely stable YoY.
Target price of RMB93.96,maintain OVERWEIGHT
As we expect ESS shipments to accelerate from 2Q26 onwards,we raise our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 1.3/8.5%to RMB1,387/1,728mn(previous:RMB1,369/1,592mn)and add our 2028 forecast of RMB2,030mn,implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB3.48/4.34/5.10.We value the stock at 27x 2026E PE,a 10%discount to its peers'average of 29.72x on Wind consensus to factor in that the company is in the early stage of overseas market expansion and shipment growth still faces uncertainties.Our target price is RMB93.96(previous:RMB75.36,based on 24x 2025E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Industry development falling short of our expectations;intensified competition;raw material price hikes exceeding our expectations.