The company has announced 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP of RMB40/40/10mn(-26/+75/+214%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB20/-0/-10mn(-51/+92/+59%YoY).The revenue decline was mainly due to delayed production scheduling caused by changes in influenza strains.With batch releases and autumn/winter sales in 2H26,we expect the company’s revenue and earnings to recover.In the long term,China’s influenza vaccine market still has significant growth potential,backed by government support and increased public vaccination awareness.Maintain BUY.
Absent influenza vaccine lot releases capped 1H26 revenue
For 1H26,influenza vaccine revenue was RMB2.39mn(-91%YoY).The revenue decline was mainly due to the impact of changes in influenza strains,which delayed overall production scheduling,and there were no sales of new influenza vaccine batches in 1H26.Rabies vaccine revenue was RMB39.72mn(+21%YoY),indicating steady growth.The company disclosed that as of the announcement date,29 August,16 batches of influenza vaccines had been released.We expect Hualan’s influenza vaccine segment to recover steadily in 2H26.In the long term,China’s vaccination rate could continue rising on the back of government support and increased public awareness,leaving significant growth potential for China’s influenza vaccine market.
Product-mix changes dragged down GPM
For 1H26,the GPM fell by 27pp YoY to 48%,mainly due to increased sales of rabies vaccines with lower GPMs.2)For 1H26,sales/administrative expenses were RMB25.19/19.46mn(-13/-44%YoY).The decline in sales expenses was mainly due to reduced related expenses after the end of equity incentives and lower warehousing and transportation expenses,while the decline in administrative expenses was mainly due to reduced inventory scrapping.3)For 1H26,R&D investment was RMB43.79mn(-47%YoY),mainly due to lower direct investment and clinical trial expenses.4)For 1H26,the net cash flow was RMB166mn(+57%YoY),mainly due to lower sales collections and reduced service fee payments in 1H26.
R&D pipelines on track
Hualan’s R&D pipelines are progressing in an orderly manner.Specifically,freeze-dried MenAC is preparing for production approval submission,DTcP vaccine is under phase-III clinical trials,Hib vaccine,recombinant zoster vaccine,and novel adjuvant influenza vaccine are under phase-I clinical trials,and mRNA influenza vaccine has obtained IND approval.
Maintain BUY
Considering that influenza vaccine lot releases are likely to normalize in 2H26 and autumn/winter sales should recover,as influenza incidence typically peaks in autumn and winter,we expect sales to recover rapidly in 2H26.We maintain our earnings forecasts,projecting attributable NP of RMB219/261/311mn in 2026/2027/2028(+20/+19/+19%YoY).To reflect the growth potential in the company’s ample R&D pipelines,as well as the recovery and growth potential of influenza vaccines,we value the stock at 58x 2026E PE,a premium over its peers’median of 25x on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB21.13(previous:RMB23.68,based on 65x 2026E PE and 2026E attributable NP of RMB220mn;the cut is mainly due to lower peer valuations).BUY.
Risks:weaker-than-expected consumption environment,residents’willingness to get vaccinated falling short of our expectation,seasonal influenza fluctuations.

　　公司公告1H26收入、归母净利、扣非归母0.4、0.4、0.1亿元（-26%、+75%、+214%yoy），其中2Q26收入、归母净利、扣非归母0.2、-0.0、-0.1亿元（-51%、+92%、+59%yoy），收入下滑主因流感毒株变化导致生产排期延后。随着下半年批签发与秋冬季销售，我们预计公司收入利润逐步恢复，长期看受益于政策支持与接种意识提升，中国流感疫苗市场仍有较大增长空间，维持“买入”评级。
　　上半年无流感疫苗批签发导致收入较少，2H26销售有望快速恢复
　　1H26流感疫苗收入239万元（-91%yoy），收入下滑主因流感毒株变化影响，生产排产整体延后，上半年无新批次流感疫苗销售。1H26狂犬疫苗收入3972万元（+21%yoy），平稳增长。公司披露截止公告日（8月29日），流感疫苗批签发16批，我们预计2H26流感疫苗稳步恢复，长期看，我国疫苗接种率有望随着政府支持及民众接种意识的提升而持续提升，中国流感疫苗市场仍有较大增长空间。
　　产品结构变化拉低毛利率，三项费用显著下降
　　1）1H26毛利率48%（-27pctyoy），主因低毛利率狂犬疫苗销售增加；2）1H26销售、管理费用分别2519、1946万元（-13%、-44%yoy），销售费用下降主因股权激励结束后相应费用减少及仓储转运费减少，管理费用减少主因报废减少；3）1H26研发投入4379万元（-47%yoy），主因直接投入与临床费用减少；4）1H26净现金流1.66亿元（+57%yoy），变动主因本期销售回款减少及支付服务费减少。
　　在研有序推进
　　公司在研管线稳健推进中，其中冻干MenAC准备报产，DTcP疫苗处于临床三期，Hib疫苗、重组带状疱疹疫苗、新型佐剂流感疫苗处于临床I期，流感病毒mRNA疫苗获批IND。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　考虑到下半年流感苗批签发有望恢复正常与秋冬季销售（流感发病高峰在秋冬季），我们预计2H26销售有望快速恢复，暂维持盈利预测，预计公司2026-28年归母净利润分别为2.2、2.6、3.1亿元（+20%、+19%、+19%yoy），给予公司26年58xPE（考虑到公司丰富在研管线增长潜力、流感苗具备较大修复空间和成长空间，较可比公司Wind一致预期中位数25x有一定溢价），给予目标价21.13元（前值23.68元，对应26年2.2亿归母净利润和65xPE，下调主因可比公司估值下降），“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：消费环境弱于预期，居民接种意愿弱于预期，流感季节波动风险。