Zheneng Electric Power reported 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring NP of RMB32,579/1,503/1,454mn(-8.16/-57.21/-56.77%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP were RMB16,917/556mn(-5.33/-77.21%YoY;+8.01/-41.34%QoQ).The 2Q26 attributable NP missed the lower end of our forecast range of RMB849mn,as the unit cost of standard coal fed into its stake-controlling coal-fired power plants rose more than we expected amid higher market coal prices.The company declared an interim dividend of RMB0.02/share,implying an interim payout ratio of 17.85%.For 1H26,the company’s investment income from long-term equity investments exceeded its attributable NP.Earnings from associates in nuclear power and coal-power integration remained more resilient,providing aprofit cushion.We are positive on the earnings growth driver from the gradual commissioning of new units at Cangnan Nuclear Power,in which the company holds equity interests.Maintain BUY.
Stake-controlling coal-fired power plants:Profit fell YoY
For 1H26/2Q26,on-grid thermal power output grew by 2.59/2.05%YoY to 75,997/38,454mn kWh,as effective thermal power generation capacity increased YoY.Jiaxing Phase-IV Unit-9 started operation in June 2025,while Taizhou Second Power Unit-3/4 came on stream in December 2025/April 2026.We estimate the company's stake-controlling thermal power units recorded net losses of RMB480/669mn in 1H26/2Q26,implying unit net loss of-RMB0.0063/-0.0174/kWh(a deterioration of RMB0.0334/0.0590/kWh YoY).We attribute the YoY decline to asharp fall in Zhejiang's annual long-term contract power tariff in 2026.Based on our forecasts,the company's 1H26 average on-grid tariffs,excluding VAT,fell by about RMB0.0370/kWh YoY.Coal price increases may also have lifted the unit cost of standard coal fed into its stake-controlling coal-fired power plants in 2Q26.
New nuclear units partly offset lower thermal power earnings
For 1H26,investment income from associates/JVs fell by 5.50%YoY to RMB1,619mn.For 2Q26,however,investment income from associates/JVs rose by 4.02%YoY to RMB907mn,as Cangnan Nuclear Power Unit 1started operation on 29April 2026 and contributed RMB143mn of investment income.Based on our calculations,nuclear power/gas-fired power/coal-fired power unit assets contributed RMB1,010/35/552mn to the company's long-term equity investments in 1H26,changing by+24.07/+103.26/-13.80%YoY.These contributions accounted for 62.42/2.14/34.08%of investment income from associates/JVs and 67.22/2.31/36.70%of attributable NP.Most coal-fired power plants in which the company holds equity interests are coal-power integrated assets.We believe these assets could show stronger operating resilience once market coal prices rise.Cangnan nuclear units 2/3 are under construction,and CGN Power expects them to begin operations in 2027/2030.In the meantime,Cangnan Unit 4is in the preparatory phase ahead of its official construction launch.We expect the gradual commissioning of nuclear units in which the company holds equity interests to bring incremental earnings.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
To factor in higher coal prices,we raise our forecasts for 2026/2027/2028 standard coal prices by 5.90/5.90/5.90%.Accordingly,we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 15.60/7.08/7.33%to RMB5,034/5,942/6,156mn,implying EPS of RMB0.38/0.44/0.46.We value the stock at 15.5x 2026E PE,above its peers'average of 10.0x on Wind consensus(previous:9.6x),to factor in the earnings stabilizer from the company's nuclear power associates,as well as its significantly higher payout ratio in 2025 vs peers.Our target price is RMB5.82(previous:RMB6.67,based on 15.0x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:coal prices exceeding our forecasts,on-grid tariffs missing our expectations,power demand in East China falling short of our expectations.

　　浙能电力发布半年报，1H26实现营收325.79亿元（yoy-8.16%），归母净利15.03亿元（yoy-57.21%），扣非净利14.54亿元（yoy-56.77%）。其中2Q26实现营收169.17亿元（yoy-5.33%，qoq+8.01%），归母净利5.56亿元（yoy-77.21%，qoq-41.34%），归母净利润低于我们2Q26业绩前瞻报告预期的下限8.49亿元，主要是公司控股煤电入炉标煤单价受市场煤价上涨影响超出预期。公司派发中期股息0.02元/股，中期分红比例为17.85%。1H26，公司长期股权投资收益超过公司归母净利润水平，参股核电、煤电一体化公司盈利稳健性相对较强，对公司盈利起到托底作用。看好公司参股苍南核电新机组陆续投产为公司带来新的盈利增长点，维持“买入”评级。
　　电价同比下降、煤价同比上涨双重压力下控股煤电盈利同比下滑
　　1H26/2Q26，公司实现火电上网电量759.97/384.54亿千瓦时，同比增长2.59%/2.05%，主要是嘉兴四期9号机组2025年6月投产，台州第二发电3、4号机组分别于2025年12月和2026年4月投产，公司1H26有效火电装机容量同比提升。我们测算1H26/2Q26公司控股火电净亏损分别为4.80/6.69亿元，对应度电净利润为-0.63/-1.74分，同比下降3.34/5.90分，主因2026年浙江年度长协电价同比降幅较大，我们测算公司1H26平均上网电价（不含税）同比下降约3.70分/千瓦时，同时受市场煤价上涨影响，2Q26公司控股煤电入炉标煤单价或同比增长。
　　投资收益：核电新机组投产弥补部分火电盈利下滑
　　1H26，公司对联营合营企业投资收益为16.19亿元，同比-5.50%，但2Q26公司对联营合营企业投资收益同比+4.02%至9.07亿元，主要是苍南核电1号机组2026年4月29日投产，贡献投资收益增量1.43亿元。我们统计1H26公司长期股权投资中核电/燃机/煤机的贡献同比+24.07%/+103.26%/-13.80%至10.10/0.35/5.52亿元，分别占公司对联营合营企业投资收益的62.42%/2.14%/34.08%，占公司归母净利润的67.22%/2.31%/36.70%。公司参股煤电厂多数为煤电一体化电厂，我们认为在市场煤价上涨过程中将展现更强的经营韧性，苍南2、3号核电机组在建，中国广核预计其将于2027/2030年投产，苍南4号机组正处于FCD准备阶段，未来公司参股核电机组陆续投产有望带来盈利增量。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑煤价上涨影响，我们上调公司2026-2028年入炉标煤单价预期各5.90%，从而调整公司2026-2028年归母净利润-15.60%/-7.08%/-7.33%至50.34/59.42/61.56亿元，对应EPS为0.38/0.44/0.46元。参考可比公司Wind一致预期2026EPE均值10.0x（前值：9.6x），考虑公司参股核电起到业绩稳定器作用，2025年分红比例显著提升且高于可比公司，给予公司15.5x2026EPE，目标价5.82元（前值：6.67元基于15.0x2026EPE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：煤价高于预期，上网电价低于预期，华东地区电力需求不及预期。

　　公司发布2026年半年报。2026年上半年公司实现营业收入325.79亿元，同比下降8.16%；归母净利润15.03亿元，同比下降57.21%；基本每股收益0.11元。26Q2单季实现营业收入169.17亿元，同比下降5.33%；归母净利润5.56亿元，同比大幅下滑77.21%，二季度业绩承压相对更大。公司盈利下滑主要系燃煤机组售电电价下降以及第二季度煤炭价格较去年同期上涨。
　　台二电二期全面建成投产带动发电量提升。公司2026上半年完成发电量810.52亿千瓦时，上网电量768.44亿千瓦时，同比分别上涨2.8%和2.87%，主要是因为浙江浙能嘉华发电有限公司发电量增加（嘉电四期9号机组于2025年6月投产）以及浙江浙能台州第二发电有限责任公司发电量增加（台二二期3、4号机组分别于2025年12月及2026年4月投产）。其中，火电/风电/光伏发电量分别为801.95/0.059/8.52亿千瓦时，同比分别+2.52%/-9.23%/+37.90%。嘉电四期建设有序推进，长电迁建2×100万千瓦煤电项目加快推进，未来发电规模提升确定性高。
　　省内电价下滑叠加Q2煤价同比高增，压制火电板块盈利。电价方面，2026年度浙江均价344.85元/兆瓦时，同比-16.4%。受省内电价下滑影响，公司电价整体承压。成本方面，环渤海动力煤（5500k）26H1均价上升至769.8元/吨，同比提升12.0%；Q2均价上升至820.5元/吨，同比提升27.9%。
　　投资收益下滑31%，参股的三澳核电一期1号机组Q2已投运。2026年上半年公司实现投资收益18.85亿元，同比下降31.04%，其中对联营和合营企业的投资收益为16.19亿元。公司持续深耕核能领域，2026上半年参股的秦山核电、三门核电以及苍南核电分别实现净利润23.71、7.57以及4.21亿元。公司参股的三澳核电一期1号机组于今年4月投入商运，进一步增厚核电投资收益。
　　坚持高分红回报股东，拟派发中期现金股利。公司公布中期分红方案，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.20元（含税），合计派发现金2.68亿元（含税），占归母净利润比例为17.85%。
　　投资建议。公司为浙江省龙头火电运营商，经营状况稳健，具有盈利修复弹性和高增长空间。考虑到26年公司成本端与电价端均较25年压力提升，预计公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为785.80/808.70/853.44亿元，同比增长-1.2%/+2.9%/+5.5%；归母净利分别为55.76/63.19/75.56亿元，对应2026-2028年EPS分别为0.42/0.47/0.56元/股，PE分别为11.9/10.5/8.8倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：上游燃料涨价风险；电价下跌风险；电量不及预期。

Zheneng Electric Power (ZEP) reported 2025 revenue of RMB79.55bn (down 9.61% YoY, restated) and attributable NP of RMB7.53bn (down 2.99% YoY, restated), exceeding our estimate of RMB7.17bn, mainly due to lower-than-we-expected minority interest losses from Jolywood (which was consolidated despite ZEP holding only a 9.75% stake). In 4Q25, revenue reached RMB20.74bn (down 4.48% YoY), while attributable NP rose 21.94% YoY to RMB1,298mn. For 1Q26, revenue declined 11.02% YoY to RMB15.66bn, and attributable NP fell 11.84% YoY to RMB947mn, landing at the upper end of our forecast range of RMB705-1,047mn in our preview report. The company declared a 2025 DPS of RMB0.33 (tax-inclusive), up RMB0.04 YoY, with a payout ratio of 58.78% (+8.63pp YoY), translating to an attractive dividend yield of 5.71%. Given the enhanced dividend commitment and appealing yield, we maintain BUY.
2025/1Q26 thermal units’ NP/kWh at c. RMB0.032/0.005
Although the 2025 annual long-term contract tariff in Zhejiang Province fell significantly by RMB0.053/kWh (tax-inclusive) YoY, we estimate the combined attributable NP of ZEP's consolidated and associated thermal power plants in 2025 fell approximately RMB5.71bn, down only 4.35% YoY, with attributable NP from consolidated thermal power even increasing 3.79% YoY to around RMB3.94bn, mainly benefiting from lower coal prices and the impressive coal cost control capabilities of ZEP's coastal power plants. In 2025/1Q26, the company's on-grid thermal power output reached 172.23/37.54bn kWh, up 4.84/3.14% YoY, primarily due to new unit commissioning. We estimate that NP/kWh for consolidated thermal power in 2025/1Q26 was RMB0.032/0.005, down RMB0.003/0.007 YoY, mainly due to significant YoY declines in Zhejiang's annual long-term contract tariffs for both 2025 and 2026, though the YoY decline in standard coal price partially offset the negative impact of tariff reductions on profits. We believe that as peak summer demand approaches, tightening S/D conditions may lead to a recovery in Zhejiang's monthly/spot power tariffs.
Investment gain: new commissioning to offset thermal profit decline
In 2025, income from associates & JVs declined 8.95% YoY to RMB3.43bn, with contribution from nuclear/gas/coal-fired power plants changing +1.77/-78/-15.02% YoY to RMB1,231/23/1,748mn, accounting for 36/1/51% of total income from associates/JVs and 16%/0.3%/23% of attributable NP. In 1Q26, income from associates & JVs fell 15.36% YoY to RMB712mn, which we attribute to temporary pressure on utilization hours and tariffs at some equity-accounted power plants, coupled with relatively limited YoY declines in standard coal prices. In March 2026, Unit 1 of the San'ao nuclear power plant (in which ZEP holds a 34% stake) was connected to the grid. We believe the commissioning of San'ao nuclear units could help offset some of the YoY decline in income from thermal power investments.
Target price RMB6.67; maintain BUY
Given greater-than-we-expected YoY declines in Zhejiang's 2026 annual long-term contract tariffs, we cut our 2026-2027 average on-grid tariff forecasts by 8.04/7.69% and accordingly lower our 2026-2027 attributable NP forecasts by 18.21/14.62% to RMB5,964/6,395mn, with 2028 attributable NP projected at RMB6,642mn (EPS of RMB0.44/0.48/0.50). With the 2026E average PE for ZEP’s peers standing at 9.6x (on Wind consensus), we apply a 15.0x 2026E PE (previous: 12.5x) considering the company’s nuclear investments as earnings stabilizers and its significantly higher-than-peer-average 2025 payout ratio, arriving at a new target price of RMB6.67 (previous: RMB6.80). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Coal prices and/or on-grid tariffs below our expectations, weaker East China power demand.

　　浙能电力发布年报，2025年实现营收795.54亿元（yoy-9.61%，追溯调整后），归母净利75.28亿元（yoy-2.99%，追溯调整后），归母净利高于我们预期的71.72亿元，主要是公司并表但仅持有9.75%股权的中来股份亏损导致少数股东损益低于预期；其中4Q25实现营收207.40亿元（yoy-4.48%），归母净利12.98亿元（yoy+21.94%）。1Q26，公司营收同比-11.02%至156.62亿元，归母净利润同比-11.84%至9.47亿元，位于我们前瞻报告预期7.05-10.47亿元的上区间。2025年公司DPS为0.33元/股（含税），同比+0.04元/股，分红比例达58.78%，同比提升8.63pp，对应股息率高达5.71%。公司分红意愿增强，股息率具有吸引力，维持“买入”评级。
　　2025/1Q26公司控股火电度电净利润约为3.2/0.5分
　　虽然2025年浙江省年度长协电价同比大幅下降5.3分/千瓦时（含税），但我们测算2025年公司控、参股火电归母净利合计约57.10亿元，同比仅下降4.35%，其中控股火电归母净利润甚至同比+3.79%至约39.38亿元，主要得益于煤价下行以及公司控股沿海电厂优异的煤炭成本控制能力。2025年/1Q26，公司实现火电上网电量1722.32/375.42亿千瓦时，同比增长4.84%/3.14%，主要是有新机组投产。我们测算2025年/1Q26公司控股火电度电净利润达3.2/0.5分，同比-0.3/-0.7分，主要是2025年和2026年浙江年度长协电价同比降幅均较大，但入炉标煤单价同比下降抵消部分电价下滑对利润的不利影响。我们认为随着迎峰度夏来临，供需趋紧或带来浙江省月度/现货电价一定程度修复。
　　投资收益：核电新机组投产有望弥补部分火电盈利下滑
　　2025年，公司对联营合营企业投资收益为34.29亿元，同比-8.95%，我们统计其中核电/燃机/煤机的贡献同比+1.77%/-78%/-15.02%至12.31/0.23/17.48亿元，分别占公司对联营合营企业投资收益的36%/1%/51%，占公司归母净利润的16%/0.3%/23%。1Q26公司对联营合营企业投资收益同比-15.36%至7.12亿元，我们认为主要是部分参股电厂利用小时数和电价暂承压，但入炉标煤单价同比降幅相对有限。2026年3月，公司参股34%的三澳核电1号机组并网，我们认为随着三澳核电机组的陆续投产，有望抵消部分参股火电投资收益同比下滑影响。
　　目标价6.67元，维持“买入”评级
　　考虑2026年浙江省年度长协电价同比降幅较大，下调公司2026-27年平均上网电价8.04%/7.69%，从而下调公司2026-27年归母净利18.21%/14.62%至59.64/63.95亿元，预计2028年归母净利润为66.42亿元，对应EPS为0.44/0.48/0.50元，参考可比公司Wind一致预期2026EPE均值9.6x，考虑公司参股核电起到业绩稳定器作用，2025年分红比例显著提升且高于可比公司均值，给予公司15.0x2026EPE，目标价6.67元（前值：6.80元基于12.5x2026EPE），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：煤价高于预期，上网电价低于预期，华东地区电力需求不及预期。