Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical (King-Friend) reported 1H26 results. Revenue/attributable NP came in at RMB1.93bn/RMB188mn in 1H26 (-2.71%/-34.48% YoY), while 2Q26 revenue/attributable NP reached RMB998mn/RMB99mn (-8.86%/-51.11% YoY). The declines mainly reflected pressure on the API business. We expect the company’s biosimilar business to anchor its long-term growth runway. Maintain BUY.
1H26 earnings under pressure; cash flow remains solid
Gross margin came in at 33.59% in 1H26 (-3.9pp YoY), while net margin arrived at 9.74% (-4.7pp YoY). We estimate that this mainly reflected: 1) broad-based pressure on the heparin API business, where revenue declined to RMB84mn (-71% YoY) and its revenue contribution fell to below 5% (15% in 1H25); 2) revenue growth in formulation business but a 3.7pp YoY decline in gross margin; and 3) increased investment in the commercialization of new products, which lifted selling and administrative expense ratios by a combined 2.5pp YoY. In 1H26, net operating cash flow increased by 78.82% YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast attributable NP of RMB538mn/RMB683mn/RMB933mn for 2026/2027/2028 (previous forecasts: RMB620mn/RMB778mn/RMB1.03bn; lowered by 13%/12%/9%, mainly reflecting our revised revenue and gross margin assumptions for the heparin API business), corresponding to EPS of RMB0.33/RMB0.42/RMB0.58. We apply 29.47x 2026E PE (previously 30.05x 2026E PE; both in line with its peers’ average on Wind consensus), for our fair value of RMB15.86bn (previously RMB18.63bn) and our target price of RMB9.82 (previously RMB11.53).
Risks: policy uncertainty, slower-than-expected approvals and sales of new products, foreign exchange risk.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：公司发布2026年半年报：1H26营收/归母净利润分别为19.26/1.88亿元（-2.71/-34.48%yoy），其中2Q26营收/归母净利润分别为9.98/0.99亿元（-8.86/-51.11%yoy），主因原料药业务承压。我们看好公司生物类似药业务支撑长期增长空间，维持“买入”评级。
　　H1收入及利润承压，现金流表现稳健
　　1H26公司毛利率为33.59%，同比-3.9pct；净利率为9.74%，同比-4.7pct，我们估测主因：1）肝素原料药业务整体承压，实现收入0.84亿元（-71%yoy），收入占比下滑至不足5%（1H2515%）；2）制剂业务收入实现规模增长，但毛利率同比下滑3.7pct；3）加大新产品市场布局，销售及管理费用率同比提升2.5pct。1H26，公司经营活动净现金流同比增长78.82%。
　　制剂：出口持续发力，国内制剂回暖
　　1H26公司制剂收入18.19亿元（+10%yoy）。其中，制剂出口仍为强力增长驱动：1）美国市场持续强势增长，Meitheal实现营收12.86亿元（+13%yoy），累计取得超100项海外批件，其中年初至今在美新增获批3个ANDA批件（含Teva生产转移2个）；2）非美市场亦在蓄力，其中公司在欧洲市场加速管线与渠道建设，并同步开拓东南亚、中东、南美、北非等新兴市场，有望打造中美市场之外的新增长极。国内来看，累计取得超30项批件，且“中美双报”下潜力批件有望陆续在国内获批；1H26公司国内总收入同比+7%，我们估测增量主要来自于国内制剂业务，其中肝素类制剂、苯达莫司汀、磺达肝癸钠等核心品种扩大终端覆盖，此外新上市产品销售业绩快速提升。
　　生物类似药：内外兼修构建产品矩阵
　　生物类似药已成为公司增长引擎：1）6M24购入阿达木单抗生物类似药批件，4M/5M25利拉鲁肽/白紫生物类似药获批，7M26门冬胰岛素获批。2）我们预计阿达木单抗高密度剂型将于年内获批，甘精胰岛素、赖脯胰岛素、格拉替雷均有望于2027年获批，此外在研生物类似药还包括非格司亭、促卵泡激素等；考虑到美国豁免大临床的趋势，我们预计公司将加速类似药产品矩阵扩张，品种数量有望增加至30个。此外，创新药XTMAB-16已正式启动肺结节III期临床。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计公司2026-28年归母净利润为5.38/6.83/9.33亿元（较前值6.20/7.78/10.26亿元下调13/12/9%，主因调整对肝素原料药收入及毛利率的预期），对应EPS为0.33/0.42/0.58元。我们给予公司2026年PE29.47x（前值2026年PE30.05x，均与可比公司均值持平），对应合理估值158.59亿元（前值186.26亿元），目标价9.82元（前值11.53元）。
　　风险提示：政策不确定性风险，新产品获批及销售不及预期，汇兑风险。

　　公司于7月27日公告其与通化东宝合作的门冬胰岛素注射液获FDA批准上市。此为公司自阿达木单抗、利拉鲁肽、白蛋白紫杉醇后获取的第4个在美生物类似药批件。我们看好公司生物类似药业务支撑长期增长空间，维持“买入”评级。
　　门冬胰岛素：需求具备韧性的大品种，健友跻身类似药前三
　　门冬胰岛素为一种速效胰岛素类似物，获批适应症为血糖控制。其原研药物为诺和诺德的NovoLog，2025年在美销售额为71.66亿丹麦克朗（11.26亿美元）。根据公司公告，2024年美国20-79岁糖尿病患者人数为3,854万人，预计至2050年增长至4,300万人，药物需求可观；考虑到胰岛素为部分糖尿病患者的必需性治疗药物，我们看好其在竞争格局演变下的需求韧性。目前除健友药业/通化东宝外，已在美获批门冬胰岛素生物类似药的厂商还包括赛诺菲和Biocon。公司于2023年与通化东宝达成合作，7M25在美申报门冬胰岛素BLA，仅历时12个月即顺利获批，印证研发及注册体系效率优势。
　　生物类似药：内外兼修构建产品矩阵
　　生物类似药正在成为公司增长引擎：1）6M24购入阿达木单抗生物类似药批件，4M/5M25利拉鲁肽/白紫生物类似药获批，7M26门冬胰岛素获批。2）我们预计公司与通化东宝合作的其他胰岛素产品将于2027年获批，此外在研生物类似药还包括非格司亭、促卵泡激素等；考虑到美国豁免大临床的趋势，我们预计公司将加速类似药产品矩阵扩张。此外，创新药XTMAB-16已正式启动肺结节III期临床。
　　制剂：非肝素制剂出口持续发力
　　制剂出口仍为强力增长驱动：1）2025年制剂美国销售收入同比增长27.39%，其中Meitheal实现营收24.52亿元（+26.74%yoy）；2）截至2025年底累计取得超100项海外批件，此外年初至今在美新增获批3个（含Teva生产转移2个）；3）非美市场亦在蓄力，2025年制剂欧洲收入同比增长70.88%。“中美双报”下潜力批件有望陆续在国内获批：截至2025年底累计取得超30项国内批件，此外年初至今新增获批1个。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持预计公司2026-28年归母净利润为6.20/7.78/10.26亿元（+6.59/25.44/31.92%yoy），对应EPS为0.38/0.48/0.63元。我们给予公司2026年PE30.05x（与可比公司均值持平；前值2026年PE28.24x，与可比公司均值持平），对应合理估值186.26亿元，目标价11.53元（前值10.83元）。
　　风险提示：政策不确定性风险，新产品获批及销售不及预期，汇兑风险。

Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical(King-Friend)announced on 27 July that its insulin aspart injection,partnered with Tonghua Dongbao,had received FDA approval.This is the company’s fourth biosimilar approval in the US,following adalimumab,liraglutide,and nab-paclitaxel.We think that the biosimilar business should underpin its long-term growth.Maintain BUY.
Insulin aspart:a resilient blockbuster;NKF top 3in biosimilars
Insulin aspart is arapid-acting insulin analog approved for glycemic control.Its originator,Novo Nordisk’s NovoLog,generated US sales of DKK7.17bn(USD1.13bn)in 2025.According to the company's announcement,the number of diabetic patients aged 20-79 in the US was 38.54mn in 2024 and is expected to reach 43.00mn by 2050,indicating substantial drug demand.Given that insulin is an essential therapy for some diabetic patients,we expect resilient demand amid an evolving competitive landscape.Currently,excluding King-Friend/Tonghua Dongbao,the only other manufacturers with approved insulin aspart biosimilars in the US are Sanofi and Biocon.The company partnered with Tonghua Dongbao in 2023 and submitted the BLA for insulin aspart in the US in July 2025.The approval took just 12 months,validating the efficiency of its R&D and registration systems.
Biosimilars:build the matrix via in-house R&D&cooperation
Biosimilars are becoming the company’s growth engine:1)It acquired an adalimumab biosimilar approval in June 2024,received approvals for liraglutide and nab-paclitaxel biosimilars in April/May 2025,and obtained approval for insulin aspart in July 2026.2)We expect other insulin products partnered with Tonghua Dongbao to receive approval in 2027.In addition,its biosimilar pipeline includes filgrastim and follicle-stimulating hormone.Given the trend of clinical trial waivers in the US,we expect the company to accelerate the expansion of its biosimilar matrix.Furthermore,the innovative drug XTMAB-16 has officially initiated Phase III clinical trials for pulmonary nodules.
Formulations:non-heparin exports gain traction
Formulation exports remain astrong growth driver:1)US formulation sales revenue grew by 27.39%YoY in 2025,with Meitheal generating revenue of RMB2.45bn(YoY+26.74%).2)By the end of 2025,it had secured over 100 overseas approvals,alongside three new US approvals YTD(including two from the Teva production transfer).3)Non-US markets are also gaining traction,with European formulation revenue surging by 70.88%YoY in 2025.Driven by the‘dual filing in China and the US’strategy,potential approvals are expected to roll out domestically:by end-2025,the company had obtained over 30 domestic approvals,with one additional approval YTD.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026E,2027E,and 2028E attributable net profit forecasts at RMB620mn,RMB778mn,and RMB1.03bn(YoY+6.59%,+25.44%,and+31.92%),with EPS of RMB0.38,RMB0.48,and RMB0.63.We apply 30.05x 2026E PE(in line with its peers’average on Wind consensus;previous:28.24x 2026E PE,also in line with its peers’average),deriving our fair valuation of RMB18.63bn and target price of RMB11.53(previously RMB10.83).
Risks:policy uncertainties,slower new product approvals and sales than we expect,FX risks.

The company released its 2025 and 1Q26 results:1)2025 revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB3.99bn/582mn/503mn,+1.71/-29.61/-35.73%YoY.In 4Q25,revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB1.07bn/RMB152mn/RMB119mn,up 27.45%/down 30.99%/down 49.27%YoY.2)1Q26 revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB929/89/57mn,+27.45/-30.99/-49.27%YoY.The company's annual revenue and profit were slightly below Wind consensus estimates.We are optimistic about the long-term growth potential supported by the company's biosimilar business.Maintain BUY.
Preparations:non-heparin formulation exports continue to ramp up
In 2025,the company's preparations(including biosimilars)achieved revenue of RMB3,516mn,up 15.26%YoY,with formulation exports remaining astrong growth driver.Overseas:1)2025 formulation sales revenue in the US increased by 27.39%YoY,with Meitheal achieving revenue of RMB2.45bn,up 26.74%YoY.2)Cumulative overseas approvals exceeded 100,including 15 new approvals in the US in 2025(including 8Teva production transfers).3)Non-US markets are also building momentum,with 2025 formulation revenue in Europe increasing by 70.88%YoY.Domestically,cumulative domestic approvals exceeded 30,including 2new approvals in 2025,and potential approvals under the"China-US dual filings"model should in our view be approved domestically.The company's gross margin declined by 4pp YoY to 39%in 2025 and by 2pp YoY to 32%in 1Q26,which we estimate was mainly under pressure from heparin API and domestic formulations.
Biosimilars:building adiversified product portfolio
Biosimilars are becoming the company's growth engine.1)The adalimumab biosimilar approval was acquired in June 2024,and the liraglutide and albumin-bound paclitaxel biosimilars were approved in April/May 2025.The company's overall selling expense ratio increased by 3pp YoY in 2025,which we estimate was mainly due to supplementing the biosimilar sales team to lay the groundwork for future growth.2)We expect insulin products co-developed with Tonghua Dongbao to begin receiving approvals from 2026 onward.In addition,biosimilars under development also include filgrastim,follicle-stimulating hormone,etc.We expect the company to ride of exempting large clinical trials in the US,accelerating proprietary brands and introducing potential products to build aproduct matrix.In addition to biosimilars,the innovative drug XTMAB-16 is in the Phase III clinical trial stage
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 27/35%to RMB620/778mn(the downward revision mainly considers changes in the API and formulation business landscape,as well as increased R&D spending),and forecast 2028 attributable NP of RMB1,026mn(3Y YoY growth rates of 6.59/25.44/31.92%),with corresponding EPS of RMB0.38/0.48/0.63.We value the stock at 28.24x 2026E PE(in line with the peer average on Wind consensus;previous:19.55x 2026E PE,a 20%discount to peers,with the discount removed mainly because tariff pressure may have subsided),implying areasonable valuation of RMB17,504mn and atarget price of RMB10.83(previous:RMB10.24).
Risks:Policy uncertainty,slower-than-expected approval and sales of new products,exchange rate risk.