Shenzhen Airport's 9M26 revenue climbed by 5.2% YoY to RMB4,038mn, and attributable net profit (NP) grew by 91.8% YoY to RMB898mn. For 3Q26, revenue expanded by 3.4% YoY to RMB1,355mn, while attributable NP rose by 3.3% YoY to RMB161mn. 9M26 NP came in 1% below our estimate of RMB910mn. Strong YoY growth was driven mainly by one-off items in 1H26, such as asset disposal gains. There were no major one-off items in 3Q26; passenger flow growth improved YoY in the summer peak season, and profit edged up YoY. Looking ahead, with the no.3 runway commissioned and no major capex planned for the short to medium term, we expect passenger throughput ramp-ups to drive NP growth. Maintain BUY.
Peak-season passenger flow recovered, cargo volume soft
Airlines actively deployed capacity during the summer peak season. For 3Q26, aircraft movements reached 112k (+1.2% YoY; vs largely flat YoY in 2Q26), and passenger throughput growth picked up to 5.0% YoY (vs +0.5% YoY in 2Q26), reaching 17.16mn. Domestic passenger throughput rose by 5.3% YoY to 15.51mn. Following the rapid post-pandemic recovery, growth on international & regional routes slowed in 3Q26, with passenger throughput up by 2.7% YoY to 1.65mn, 4.3% above the 3Q19 level. In addition, 3Q26 cargo throughput fell by 3.2% YoY to 500k tonnes, likely partly affected by the EU's removal of the customs duty exemption for small parcels.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We trim our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 3/4/2% to RMB975/780/961mn, implying EPS of RMB0.48/0.38/0.47, as high oil prices and fuel surcharges could suppress air travel demand and the company's passenger throughput. We update our DCF-derived target price to RMB8.20 (previous: RMB8.40), assuming WACC of 7.0% (previous: 7.2%) and terminal growth rate of 2.0% (unchanged). Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker-than-expected air travel demand, slower-than-expected international route expansion, cost increases/capex exceeding our forecasts.

　　公司公布1H26业绩：收入26.83亿元，同增6.1%；归母净利润7.37亿元，同增136.0%。其中二季度公司实现收入13.39亿元，同增5.2%；归母净利润4.79亿元，同增220.4%。公司上半年业绩符合公司预告区间6.7-7.7亿元，盈利大幅增长主因T1航站楼土地整备录得资产处置收益4.29亿元。2Q26扣非归母净利润1.29亿元，同比小幅提升3.0%。深圳机场第三跑道投产后，成本小幅承压，但中短期无重大资本开支，我们看好公司流量持续爬坡，推动净利润增长，维持“买入”。
　　2Q一次性收益带动盈利同比大幅提升
　　2Q26深圳机场流量增长放缓，主因高油价背景下，航司削减航班，叠加较高的燃油附加费，抑制民航出行需求。2Q26深圳机场旅客吞吐量1609万人次，同比小幅增长0.5%，其中国内/国际+地区线分别同比+0.6%/-0.3%。营业成本随营收基本同步增长5.0%，毛利润同比小幅提升5.8%至3.21亿元，同时土地整备录得资产处置收益4.29亿元，最终公司2Q26实现归母净利润4.79亿元，同增220.4%，扣非归母净利润1.29亿元，同增3.0%。
　　1H26营收随流量稳步提升
　　1H26整体来看公司流量平稳增长，旅客吞吐量3362万人次，同增3.2%，其中国内/国际+地区线同增3.2%/3.7%；同时货邮吞吐量98万吨，同比持平。流量增长使得航空性收入同增1.6%至11.24亿元；物流收入或主因快件监管中心并表（1H26营收0.86亿），同增33.9%至3.65亿元；租赁及特许经营收入同增7.2%至5.28亿元，租赁价格/旅客机场消费意愿或边际小幅改善；广告业务较为稳定，营收同降0.4%至2.04亿元。最终1H26合计营收26.83亿元，同增6.1%。
　　1H26扣非净利润同比小幅增长，看好公司产能爬坡和盈利提升
　　1H26成本端稍有压力，未明显展现经营杠杆，或由于第三跑道投产产生成本增量。营业成本录得20.37亿元，同比提升6.2%，小幅快于营收增速，使得毛利率同降0.1pct至24.1%，不过毛利润小幅同增5.8%至6.46亿元。剔除土地整备等一次性收益因素后，公司1H26扣非归母净利润2.68亿元，同比小幅提升2.8%。往后展望，公司处于产能爬坡阶段，7月旅客吞吐量同比增速提升至8.2%，随着二跑道不停航施工、时刻容量评估推进，流量增长有望加速，我们认为公司盈利处于持续增长阶段。且暂无重大资本开支，公司或将维持较高分红比例，25年为62%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们小幅下调公司26-28年归母净利润（2%/1%/1%）至10.09/8.13/9.84亿元，对应EPS为0.49/0.40/0.48元，下调主因高油价和高燃油附加费背景下，抑制民航出行需求和公司流量，且三跑道投产成本小幅承压。基于DCF折现法，调整目标价至8.40元（WACC7.2%，前值7.8%，永续增长率2.0%不变，目标价前值8.90元），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：民航需求不及预期、国际线开拓不达预期、成本增加超预期、资本开支超预期。

Shenzhen Airport’s 1H26 revenue climbed by 6.1%YoY to RMB2,683mn,and the attributable net profit(NP)grew by 136.0%YoY to RMB737mn.For 2Q26,revenue expanded by 5.2%YoY to RMB1,339mn,while the attributable NP rose by 220.4%YoY to RMB479mn.The 1H26 attributable NP was in line with its profit alert of RMB670-770mn.Substantial profit growth was mainly driven by T1 terminal land readjustment gains of RMB429mn.For 2Q26,the recurring NP edged up by 3.0%YoY to RMB129mn.The commissioning of the No.3 runway slightly pushed up costs,but the capex plan remains modest in the short to medium term.We expect passenger throughput ramp-ups to drive NP growth.Maintain BUY.
One-off gains drove strong YoY profit growth in 2Q26
In 2Q26,Shenzhen Airport’s passenger flow growth slowed,as airlines trimmed their flight schedules to address high oil prices.This,combined with hefty fuel surcharges,suppressed air travel demand.Shenzhen Airport’s 2Q26 passenger throughput edged up by 0.5%YoY to 16.09mn,with that for domestic/international®ional routes changing by+0.6/-0.3%YoY.Operating costs grew almost in tandem with revenue(+5.0%YoY).The gross profit rose by 5.8%YoY to RMB321mn,and the company recorded asset-disposal gains of RMB429mn.Consequently,for 2Q26,the attributable NP increased by 220.4%YoY to RMB479mn,while the recurring NP grew by 3.0%YoY to RMB129mn.
Revenue grew alongside passenger flows in 1H26
Shenzhen Airport’s 1H26 passenger throughput expanded by 3.2%YoY to 33.62mn,with that for domestic/international®ional routes rising by 3.2/3.7%YoY.Cargo throughput remained flat YoY at 980k tonnes.Rising throughput drove aviation revenue up by 1.6%YoY to RMB1,124mn.Aviation logistics revenue climbed by 33.9%YoY to RMB365mn,likely driven by the consolidation of the express mail supervision center(which contributed RMB86mn to 1H26 revenue).Leasing&concession revenue climbed by 7.2%YoY to RMB528mn,likely reflecting marginal improvements in leasing prices and passengers’propensity to consume.Advertising revenue edged down by 0.4%YoY to RMB204mn.Ultimately,total revenue for 1H26 grew by 6.1%YoY to RMB2,683mn.
1H26 recurring NP edged up YoY
For 1H26,slight cost burdens curbed operating leverage,likely due to additional costs from the newly commissioned No.3 runway.Operating costs rose by 6.2%YoY to RMB2,037mn,slightly outpacing revenue growth,which pulled the GPM down by 0.1pp YoY to 24.1%.However,the gross profit grew by 5.8%YoY to RMB646mn.Excluding one-off items such as land readjustment gains,the 1H26 recurring NP edged up by 2.8%YoY to RMB268mn.Looking ahead,the company could remain in acapacity ramp-up phase.In July,passenger throughput growth accelerated to 8.2%YoY.We expect uninterrupted construction of the No.2 runway and slot capacity evaluation to continue expediting throughput and sustain earnings growth.Furthermore,with no major capex plan in the near term,we expect the company to maintain ahigh dividend-payout ratio(62%in 2025).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We trim our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 2/1/1%to RMB1,009/813/984mn,with EPS of RMB0.49/0.40/0.48,given that:1)high oil prices and fuel surcharges suppress air travel demand and Shenzhen Airport’s passenger throughput;and 2)the No.3 runway commissioning pushed up costs.We update our DCF-derived target price to RMB8.40(previous:RMB8.90),assuming aWACC of 7.2%(previous:7.8%)and terminal growth of 2.0%(unchanged).Maintain BUY.
Risks:weaker air travel demand than we expect,slower international route expansion than we expect,cost increases/capex exceeding our forecasts.

Shenzhen Airport announced its 1Q26 results: revenue was RMB1,344mn (+7.1% YoY) and attributable net profit (NP) was RMB258mn (+58.5% YoY), above our expectation of RMB190mn, mainly due to investment income jumping by 558% YoY to RMB129mn, exceeding our expectation. The company has also reported 2025 revenue/attributable NP of RMB5,128/525mn (+8.2/+18.5% YoY). In 2026, the company stands to benefit from profit enhancement driven by land consolidation compensation related to Terminal 1. In addition, with no major medium-term capex plans and the third runway commencing operations in November 2025, we expect traffic to continue ramping up. Meanwhile, the proportion of international routes is likely to increase, potentially sustaining growth in the company's core business profitability. Maintain BUY.
Investment income drove strong YoY profit growth in 1Q26
For 1Q26, passenger throughput increased by 5.9% YoY to 17.52mn. Among them, the low-base effect for international and regional routes weakened, with YoY growth slowing to 7.9%, though this was still slightly ahead of domestic route growth of 5.7%. Benefiting from traffic growth and consolidation of the international express center, 1Q26 revenue rose by 7.1% YoY to RMB1,344mn. On the cost side, labor and related expenses likely increased due to the commissioning of the third runway. As a result, the 1Q26 gross margin declined by 0.3pp YoY to 24.2%, while gross profit edged up by 5.9% YoY to RMB326mn. However, due to consolidation of the international express center, the appreciation portion of previously held equity stakes was recognized as investment income. Investment income jumped by 558% YoY to RMB129mn, driving attributable NP to RMB258mn, up by RMB95mn YoY (+58.5%). Recurring attributable NP reached RMB140mn, up slightly by 2.6% YoY.
2025: margin expansion limited, profit growth stable
In 2025, Shenzhen Airport's traffic steadily improved, with passenger throughput rising by 8.1% YoY to 66.49mn. Among them, international and regional routes increased by 22.4% YoY to 6.34mn, with their share rising by 1.1pp YoY to 9.5%. Traffic growth drove revenue expansion. Aviation-related core business revenue increased by 7.5% YoY to RMB2,253mn, while leasing and concession revenue rose by 5.5% YoY to RMB1,016mn. Monetization businesses such as duty-free operations have yet to show meaningful improvement. Logistics revenue increased by 37.0% YoY to RMB563mn, in our view mainly due to expanded operations at wholly owned subsidiary Shenchang Cargo. Advertising business performance was relatively weak, with revenue declining by 4.6% YoY to RMB372mn. However, due to labor costs increasing by 12.2% YoY during the year, gross margin remained broadly flat YoY. Gross profit increased by RMB82mn YoY to RMB1,091mn, while attributable NP rose by 18.5% YoY to RMB525mn.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Factoring in the land consolidation compensation, we raise our 2026 attributable NP forecast by 35%, bringing it to RMB1,030mn. Meanwhile, considering rising labor costs, we lower our 2027 attributable NP forecast by 9% to RMB823mn, and forecast 2028 attributable NP of RMB993mn, corresponding to EPS of RMB0.50/0.40/0.48 for 2026-2028. Based on DCF method, we trim our target price to RMB8.90 (previous: RMB9.00), with WACC of 7.8% (previous: 8.3%) and perpetual growth unchanged at 2.0%. Maintain BUY.
Risks: Slower recovery in civil-aviation demand than we expect, international route expansion falling short of our expectations, cost hikes exceeding our expectations.

　　公司公告2026年三季报：
　　1、业绩情况：
　　1）2026Q1-Q3：营收40.38亿，同比+5.2%；归母净利8.98亿，同比+91.8%；扣非归母净利4.04亿，同比+0.2%。
　　2）2026Q3：营收13.55亿，同比+3.4%；归母净利1.61亿，同比+3.3%；扣非归母净利1.35亿，同比-4.5%。
　　2、经营数据：
　　1）2026Q1-Q3：完成起降架次33.6万架次，同比+1.2%；旅客吞吐量5078万人次，同比+3.8%，其中国内旅客4596万人次，同比+3.9%，国际+地区旅客482万人次，同比+3.4%。
　　2）2026Q3：完成起降架次11.2万架次，同比+1.2%；旅客吞吐量1716万人次，同比+5.0%，其中国内旅客1551万人次，同比+5.3%，国际+地区旅客165万人次，同比+2.7%。
　　3、成本费用：
　　1）2026Q1-Q3：营业成本30.75亿，同比+4.5%；三费率约9.5%。
　　2）2026Q3：营业成本10.38亿，同比+1.2%；三费率约9.3%。
　　3）前三季度归母净利高增主要受上半年公司土地整备补偿确认资产处置收益4.29亿、快件监管中心纳入合并带来投资收益增加影响；扣非后主业利润基本持平。
　　投资建议：
　　1）盈利预测：考虑业务量及前三季度业绩情况，我们维持26-28年盈利预测为9.9、8.2亿、9.3亿，对应26~28年PE分别为13、16、14倍。
　　2）投资建议：我们认为公司仍处潜力释放期，三跑道投产后进一步打开产能上限；未来客流增长及商业、物流等非航业务拓展有望支撑盈利提升。考虑到前三季度归母净利高增主要受一次性收益推动，参考近3年平均PE区间，给予27年预期利润20倍PE，目标市值164亿，目标价8.0元，预期较当前25%的空间，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济大幅下滑、旅客量低于预期、国际航班恢复低于预期。

　　公司公告2026年半年报：
　　1、业绩情况：1）2026H1：营收26.83亿，同比+6.1%；归母净利7.37亿，同比+136.0%；扣非归母净利2.68亿，同比+2.8%。2）2026Q2：营收13.39亿，同比+5.2%；归母净利4.79亿，同比+220.4%；扣非归母净利1.29亿，同比+3.0%。H1盈利大幅增长主要系土地整备补偿确认资产处置收益4.29亿，以及快件监管中心纳入合并带来投资收益增加。
　　2、经营数据：2026H1，深圳机场完成航班起降22.4万架次，同比+1.2%，旅客吞吐量3361.5万人次，同比+3.2%；其中国内旅客3044.7万人次，全国排名第二；货邮吞吐量98.3万吨，同比+0.02%。2026Q2：完成起降10.9万架次，同比+0.03%；旅客量1609万人次，同比+0.5%，其中国内旅客1454万，同比+0.6%，国际及地区旅客155万，同比-0.3%。
　　分业务来看：2026H1航空性收入11.24亿元，同比+1.6%；地面服务收入4.04亿元，同比+2.6%；租赁及特许经营收入5.28亿元，同比+7.2%；物流收入3.65亿元，同比+33.9%；广告收入2.04亿元，同比-0.4%；其他非航收入0.57亿元，同比-0.1%。
　　公司持续织密航线网络，国际客运及中转能力稳步提升。2026H1，公司新开加密加德满都、塔什干等国际航线，增开铜仁、库车等国内航线，加密深圳至上海、杭州等十大航线航班；同时完善中转产品，继“深沪”快线后推出“深杭”“深宁”航线跨航司旅客自愿签转服务，覆盖长三角主要核心城市，提升商务客流和中转效率。
　　货运方面，货运网络和设施能力继续完善。2026H1深圳机场货邮吞吐量98.3万吨，同比基本持平。公司积极拓展国际全货机航线，引导航司在深增加运力投放，通航点覆盖洛杉矶、伦敦、法兰克福、新加坡等全球主要航空货运枢纽；快件监管中心自2026年1月起纳入合并报表范围，物流收入实现3.65亿，同比+33.9%。
　　成本费用：2026H1营业成本20.37亿元，同比+6.2%；三费率约9.6%，同比+0.2pct。26Q2营业成本10.18亿元，同比+5.0%；三费率约9.7%，同比+0.5pct。费用端，2026H1管理费用0.79亿，同比+19.8%，财务费用1.73亿，同比+4.0%。
　　投资建议：1）盈利预测：考虑业务量及上半年业绩情况，我们调整26-28年盈利预测为9.9、8.2亿、9.3亿（原预测为9.3、8.1、9.2亿），对应26~28年PE分别为13、16、14倍。2）投资建议：我们认为公司仍处潜力释放期，三跑道投产后进一步打开产能上限；参考近3年平均PE区间，给予27年预期利润20倍PE，目标市值164亿，目标价8.0元，预期较当前25%的空间，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济大幅下滑、旅客量低于预期、国际航班恢复低于预期。

　　事件：2026年8月19日，深圳机场披露2026年半年度报告。2026H1公司实现营业收入26.83亿元，同比+6.12%；归母净利润7.37亿元，同比+135.97%，略高于半年度业绩预告中枢；扣非归母净利润2.68亿元，同比+2.79%。其中Q2公司实现营业收入13.39亿元，同比+5.2%；归母净利润4.79亿元，同比+220%；扣非归母净利润1.29亿元，同比+3.05%。
　　流量稳步增长，航线网络持续加密。2026年上半年，公司核心运营指标稳居全国前列：旅客吞吐量达3361.5万人次（同比+3.21%），全国排名第四。其中国内旅客3044.7万人次（+3.16%），国际及地区旅客316.9万人次（+3.75%）。飞机起降架次达22.4万架次（同比+1.15%），货邮吞吐量达98.3万吨（同比+0.02%），均位列全国第三。上半年公司新开加密加德满都、塔什干等13条国际航线，国际及地区客运航线达63条；增开铜仁、库车等6条国内航线，加密深圳至上海、杭州等十大航线航班频次，国内航线达129条。
　　航空性收入稳健增长，物流收入增速领跑。2026H1公司实现航空性收入11.24亿元，同比+1.59%，占营收比重41.89%；地面服务收入4.04亿元，同比+2.58%，占15.07%；租赁特许收入5.28亿元，同比+7.17%，占19.69%；物流收入3.65亿元，同比+33.87%，占13.60%，增速快主要系Q1快件监管中心并表；广告收入2.04亿元，同比-0.35%，占7.62%；其他收入0.57亿元，同比-0.13%，占2.12%。
　　毛利率同比小幅回落，资产处置收益增厚当期利润。2026H1公司营业成本同比+6.2%，毛利率为24.1%，同比小幅下降0.1pct，成本控制整体稳健。公司上半年利润大增主要源于非经常性损益：资产处置收益4.29亿元（Q2录得T1土地整备补偿）及投资收益1.45亿元（同比+182.57%，主要来自Q1快件监管中心并表）。扣除非经影响，H1公司扣非归母净利润为2.68亿元，仍同比+2.79%
　　产能扩张锚定长期增长，枢纽能级有望跃升。着眼未来，公司正积极推进产能升级。6月30日，深圳机场T2航站区主体工程、飞行区工程以及T1航站楼地块土地整备工程等多个项目集中开工，未来将全面形成“三条跑道、三个航站区、三个货运区、一个卫星厅”协同运行的格局，全面支撑远期9800万客流量、500万吨货邮量的客货发展目标。
　　投资分析意见：维持2026-2028年归母净利预测10.1亿元./8.1亿元/9.7亿元（需注意2026年利润含土地整备等非经常性收益，2027年起回归常态），对应2026-2028年PE分别为13x、16x、14x，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：需求增长不及预期风险、扩建影响超预期风险，收费政策变动风险等。

　　公司公告2025年报及26一季报：
　　1、业绩情况：1）2025：营收51.28亿，同比+8.2%；归母净利5.25亿，同比+18.5%。2）2026Q1：营收13.44亿，同比+7.1%；归母净利2.58亿，同比+58.5%，Q1盈利大幅增长主要系投资收益增加约1.1亿。
　　2、经营数据：2025年，深圳机场完成航班起降44.8万架次，同比增长4.6%，排名全国第三。旅客吞吐量6648.5万人次，同比增长8.1%；其中国内旅客量6014.4人次，同比增长6.8%；国际及地区旅客量634.1万人次，同比增长22.4%。货邮吞吐量205.1万吨，同比增长9%；其中国际及地区货邮量106.1万吨，同比增长10%。2026Q1：完成起降11.4万架次，同比增2.3%；旅客量1752万人次，同比增5.9%，其中国内旅客量1590万，同比+5.7%，国际旅客148万，同比+6.7%。货邮吞吐量46.78万吨，同比+1.8%。
　　公司持续织密国内外航线网络。积极拓展国际航线，叠加免签政策利好，推动国际客运业务。报告期内，深圳机场国际及地区旅客量达634.1万人次，同比增长22.4%，创历史新高。新开墨尔本、万象等14条国际客运航线，加密墨西哥城、利雅得、新加坡等14条国际客运航线，国际及地区客运航点突破61个，超过历史峰值水平，实现与全球主要枢纽的互联互通。新开13条国内航线，国内客运航点达131个。推动航司开通20条国际转国内通程中转航线，实施行李全委托保障，提高国际旅客中转效率。
　　货运方面，航线网络持续拓展，吸引阿特拉斯航空、UPS、顺丰等14家航司在深增加运力投放，新开迈阿密、德里、雅加达3条国际货运航线，加密芝加哥、曼谷等16个国际货运航点，国际及地区通航点达43个。
　　经营方面持续激发活力。优化T3航站楼免税点位，提升免税资源价值。航站楼内新引进品牌首店10家，路易威登、爱马仕等一批国际名品开业。25年内，顺利实现三跑道投产运行，截至2025年底，深圳机场高峰小时容量标准65架次。
　　股东回报：公司拟每10股分派现金股利1.6元（含税），共计派发现金股利总额为人民币3.28亿，25年度公司现金分红比例达62.48%。
　　公司同时公告《关于签署土地整备补偿协议的公告》，现公司拟与福永街道办就相关搬迁补偿事宜签订补偿协议。截至2025年12月，被征收房屋评估值为8.67亿元，资产净值为4.75亿，预计增厚利润。福永街道办将补偿款支付完毕后，公司将相应场地设施予以移交。
　　投资建议：1）盈利预测：考虑业务量情况及26年土地整备补偿协议，我们调整26-27年盈利预测为9.3、8.1亿（原预测为7.8、9.2亿），新增28年盈利预测为9.2亿，对应26~28年PE分别为16、18、16倍。2）投资建议：我们认为公司仍处潜力释放期，三跑道投产后进一步打开产能上限；参考近3年平均PE区间，给予26年预期利润20倍PE，目标市值186亿，目标价9.06元，预期较当前27%的空间，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济大幅下滑、旅客量低于预期、国际航班恢复低于预期。