BBMG Jidong has reported 1H26 results:revenue of RMB9,642mn,down 18.0%YoY/24.3%QoQ;attributable net loss of RMB957mn,widening 523.2%YoY and swinging from aprofit QoQ.In 2Q26,revenue was RMB6,628mn,down 15.7%YoY but up 119.9%QoQ;attributable net profit was RMB37mn,down 94.9%YoY and swinging from aloss QoQ.The company is steadily advancing regional consolidation in the broader Northeast market,and we expect abetter market structure to drive aregional recovery.The company is also strengthening cost control and expanding its new materials business.Maintain BUY.
Volume/price under pressure,costs continued to improve
1)National cement output fell 8.0%YoY in 1H26,with the decline widening 3.7pp from ayear earlier.Industry demand remained weak and price competition intensified.We estimate the company's combined cement and clinker sales volume at 34.71mt in 1H26,down 7.1%YoY.Average selling price(ASP)/cost per tonne/gross profit per tonne were c.RMB207/181/26,down RMB39/13/25 YoY.Lower unit costs reflected the company's lean operations approach,with efforts to improve operating efficiency and cost control.2)Hazardous&solid waste disposal revenue rose 21.4%YoY to RMB443mn in 1H26,while aggregate revenue fell 2.6%to RMB734mn.Their gross margins were 29.4%and 39.8%,up 1.8pp and down 1.5pp YoY,respectively.Hazardous&solid waste disposal delivered volume and profit growth,partly offsetting cement weakness.3)For 2Q26,blended gross margin was 19.0%,down 7.4pp YoY but up 14.7pp QoQ,helped by seasonal volume recovery and cost efficiency,though still below the prior-year level.
Total expenses declined
The selling,administrative,R&D,and financial expenses totaled RMB2,192mn in 1H26,down 6.2%YoY.Expenses per tonne were c.RMB63,up c.RMB1 YoY,and the expense ratio rose c.2.9pp YoY.We estimate net loss per tonne at c.RMB30,widening c.RMB25 YoY.The net operating cash flow was RMB325mn in 1H26,down by RMB962mn YoY.Cash paid for fixed assets,intangible assets,and other long-term assets rose 30.6%YoY to RMB773mn.The debt-to-asset ratio was 50.54%at end-June,up 2.15pp from end-2025.
Lean operations to strengthen M/LT competitiveness
The company completed the acquisition of a21%stake in BBMG Concrete Group,adding c.77mn cbm of ready-mix concrete capacity(including leased capacity).Total ready-mix concrete capacity rose to c.87.91mn cbm at end-June,improving the cement-aggregate-concrete industry chain.The share of LT contract and high-quality channel coal rose to 86%,and direct procurement of bulk raw materials rose to 55%,as the company continued to unlock procurement and production cost savings.The company added c.5.6mtpa of aggregate capacity and c.0.3mtpa of mortar capacity in 1H26,along with c.11MWp of solar capacity.It is focusing on new materials development and frontier tech research to expand its new materials portfolio.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given weak cement demand and intensifying price competition,we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB-425/+132/+649mn(previous:RMB334/573/768mn).We forecast 2026E BVPS of RMB10.12.Reflecting near-term cement industry pressure,we apply a0.41x 2026E PB(a 65%discount to the average 1.18x since 2017)and cut our target price to RMB4.15(previous:RMB6.13,on 0.59x 2026E PB).Maintain BUY,as we expect the industry structure to gradually improve and the company's operating quality to strengthen.
Risks:worsening market competitive landscape,and asurge in raw material cost than we expect.

　　公司公布2026年上半年业绩：收入96.42亿元，同比/环比-18.0%/-24.3%；归母净利润-9.57亿元，亏损同比扩大523.2%、环比转亏。其中二季度公司实现收入66.28亿元，同比/环比-15.7%/+119.9%；归母净利润0.37亿元，同比下降94.9%、环比扭亏。公司稳步推进泛东北市场的区域整合，市场格局优化有望推动区域景气回升，公司同时加强成本控制和新材料业务的拓展，维持“买入”。
　　量价双重承压，成本端持续优化
　　1）2026H1全国水泥产量同比下降8.0%，降幅较上年同期扩大3.7个百分点，行业需求延续下行，价格竞争加剧。我们测算公司H1水泥及熟料综合销量3471万吨，同比下降7.1%；吨均价、吨成本及吨毛利分别约207、181和26元/吨，分别同比下降39、13和25元/吨。单位成本的下降得益于公司精益运营理念，全力提升经营质效，持续提升成本管控水平。2）2026H1公司危废固废处置业务、骨料业务分别实现收入4.43/7.34亿元，分别同比增长21.4%/下降2.6%；毛利率分别为29.4%/39.8%，分别同比提升1.8pct/下降1.5pct，骨料业务仍保持较高盈利水平，危固废处置业务量利齐升，对冲了水泥业务下滑的部分压力。3）Q2单季公司综合毛利率为19.0%，同比下降7.4个百分点、环比提升14.7个百分点，得益于旺季销量恢复和降本提效推动经营环比改善，但未恢复至上年同期水平。
　　期间费用总额有所压降
　　1）2026H1公司销售、管理、研发及财务费用合计21.92亿元，同比下降6.2%；吨期间费用约63元/吨，同比增加约1元/吨，期间费用率同比提升约2.9pct。我们测算H1吨净利润约-30元/吨，同比减少约25元/吨。2）H1经营活动现金流净额为3.25亿元，同比少流入9.62亿元；购建固定资产、无形资产及其他长期资产支付现金7.73亿元，同比增长30.6%。3）期末资产负债率为50.54%，较2025年末提升2.15pct。
　　产业链整合继续推进，精益运营有望夯实中长期竞争力
　　1）公司完成收购金隅混凝土集团21%股权，新增预拌混凝土产能（含租赁）约7700万立方米，期末预拌混凝土产能增至约8791万立方米，进一步完善“水泥—骨料—混凝土”产业链布局。2）公司长协及优质渠道煤占比提升至86%，大宗原材料直采比例提升至55%，持续挖掘采购和生产端降本空间。3）公司H1新增骨料产能约560万吨、新增砂浆产能约30万吨，新增光伏装机容量约11MWp，聚焦新材料体系开发与前沿技术研究，持续丰富新材料产品谱系。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　基于水泥需求承压，价格竞争压力阶段性加剧，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润至-4.3亿元/1.3亿元/6.5亿元（前值为3.3/5.7/7.7亿元）。我们预计公司2026年BVPS为10.12元，考虑水泥景气阶段性承压，给予公司0.41x26年P/B（较2017年以来的平均1.18倍P/B折价65%），下调目标价至4.15元（前目标价为6.13元，基于公司0.59x26年P/B），但行业格局逐步优化，公司经营质量持续改善，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市场竞争格局恶化，原燃料成本大幅上升的风险。

BBMG Jidong Cement has reported 2025 revenue of RMB24.50bn(-3.11%YoY)and an attributable net profit of RMB219mn(+122.07%YoY),marking aturnaround from losses and landing at the midpoint of its guidance range(RMB180-260mn).For 4Q25,revenue came in at RMB5.93bn with an attributable net profit of RMB178mn.Asset impairment losses rose by RMB400mn YoY during the quarter to RMB710mn due to production line replacements.That said,we maintain our BUY rating,considering the company has improved operations through regional consolidation in the Northeast China market,cost controls,and new materials business development.Maintain BUY.
Profitability improved YoY despite cement&clinker pressure
The company sold 84.5mn tonnes of cement and clinker in 2025(-1.1%YoY),outperforming the national cement output decline of 6.9%YoY,which we attribute to enhanced market development and lean operations.Cement&clinker revenue reached RMB19.31bn(-6.09%YoY),with the average selling price declining 5.0%YoY to RMB231/tonne.However,decreased raw material procurement costs drove gross margin per tonne up RMB9 YoY to RMB48,extending the profitability recovery trend.The aggregates business generated RMB1.98bn revenue in 2025(+7.88%YoY),although the gross margin dipped 1.02pp YoY to 43.26%amid volume growth.The company advanced its new materials strategy,developing 13 specialized cement products including formulations for wind turbine towers and grouting.Specialized cement sales volume rose 40%YoY in 2025,while customized cement volumes jumped 120%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering persistent demand pressure in the cement industry and rising energy costs,we lower our assumptions for the company's average selling prices and gross margin per tonne of cement&clinker for 2026-2027.Factoring in potential production line shutdowns for capacity conversion,we raise assumptions for asset impairment losses and effective tax rates.We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB334/573/768mn(-44/-30%vs prior estimates of RMB596/816mn for 2026/2027).We estimate 2026 BVPS at RMB10.39.Switching valuations to 2026,we assign 0.59x 2026E PB,yielding atarget price of RMB6.13(previously RMB6.11 based on 0.59x our 2025E BVPS of RMB10.43),1SD below the historical average PB since 2007,accounting for the ongoing supply-demand rebalancing in the cement sector.Maintain BUY,given continued profitability and balance sheet improvements,along with the implementation of restricted stock incentives in 2025.

　　公司发布2025年年报，全年实现营收245.01亿元（yoy-3.11%），归母净利润2.19亿元（yoy+122.07%），同比实现扭亏为盈，处于此前公司业绩预告区间1.8-2.6亿元的均值。其中，公司25Q4实现营收59.26亿元，归母净利1.78亿元，计提资产减值损失7.1亿元，同比增加4亿元，主要受产线置换停产影响。公司积极推进泛东北市场的区域整合，以及成本控制和新材料业务的拓展，2025年经营表现有所改善，维持“买入”。
　　水泥熟料量价承压，但盈利能力同比改善
　　公司2025年合计销售水泥及熟料8450万吨，同比-1.1%，降幅明显好于全国水泥产量6.9%的同比降幅，我们认为主要得益于公司深化市场建设和精益运营。公司25年水泥及熟料业务合计实现收入193.12亿元（yoy-6.09%），我们测算公司25年水泥及熟料吨均价231元/吨，同比-5.0%，但受益于原燃料采购成本同比下降，吨毛利率同比+9元至48元，盈利能力延续改善趋势。此外，公司25年骨料业务实现收入19.76亿元（yoy+7.88%），毛利率同比-1.02pct至43.26%，销量增长但盈利能力略有承压。公司聚焦新材料产业培育，成功研发风电塔筒、灌浆专用水泥等13款特种与定制化水泥，25年特种水泥销量同比提升40%，定制化水泥销量提高120%。
　　泛东北市场整合效果良好
　　截至25年末，公司年熟料产能0.92亿吨，水泥产能1.8亿吨，水泥产能位列国内第三，公司在北方市场尤其是京津冀地区的市场占有率超过50%。公司积极把握行业深度调整期机遇，围绕核心区域市场，有序推进战略性并购重组，通过收购恒威水泥及其关联企业、双鸭山新时代等项目，进一步巩固了在泛东北市场的话语权。公司2025年东北市场实现收入25.05亿元（yoy+10.10%），毛利率35.16%（yoy+4.37pct），市场整合效果显现。
　　资产负债表持续修复，财务费用显著下降
　　公司持续推进资产负债表和现金流修复，25年在收入同比小幅下降的情况下，应收账款余额22.69亿元（yoy-13.33%），存货余额29.14亿元（yoy+4.71%），公司经营活动现金净流入33.51亿元（yoy+5.34%），应收款和现金流小幅改善。截至25年末，公司带息债务余额为192.56亿元，同比减少9.56亿元，其中短期借款余额27.24亿元（yoy+3.84%），长期借款余额68.14亿元（yoy+0.78%），并通过发行更低利率的公司债券等进行债务优化，推动公司25年财务费用同比-18.43%至4.58亿元，财务费用率同比下降0.35pct至1.87%。但公司一年内到期的非流动负债余额67.23亿元，保持在较高水平，我们预计需继续滚动负债予以接续。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑水泥行业需求承压和能源成本有所上升，我们下调公司2026-2027年水泥及熟料均价、吨毛利假设，此外基于公司仍然可能存在熟料产线停产改产，我们上调资产减值损失和所得税率假设，预计公司2026-2028年归母净利3.3/5.7/7.7亿元（26-27年较前值6.0/8.2亿元分别下调44%/30%）。我们预计公司2026年BVPS为10.39元，估值切换至2026年，维持给予公司0.59x26年P/B，对应目标价6.13元（前值6.11元，基于0.59x25年P/B，2025EBVPS为10.43元），较2007年以来的平均P/B低一个标准差，以反映水泥行业短期仍处于供需再平衡的阶段。考虑公司盈利和资产负债表延续改善、且25年已实施限制性股票激励计划，维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：房地产销售企稳慢于预期，错峰生产执行弱于预期。