Jinling Mining’s (Jinling) 1Q26 revenue was RMB389mn (+9.09% YoY, -6.61% QoQ), the attributable net profit was RMB35mn (-28.46% YoY, -26.23% QoQ) and the recurring attributable net profit was RMB34mn (-30.36% YoY, +32.36% QoQ). We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB284/285/286mn. Maintain HOLD .
GPM dented by weak iron concentrate price/energy price hikes
For 1Q26, revenue grew by 9.09% YoY; the sales GPM was 15.49% (-8.60pp YoY). According to Mysteel, the average spot price of Australia 62% iron ore powder edged down by 0.68% YoY/0.82% QoQ for the quarter (largely flat). However, high iron concentrate powder inventories suppressed price increases, while rising energy prices and shipping rates pushed up mining and logistics costs, thus narrowing Jinling’s GPM. For 1Q26, the overall expense ratio was 6.30% (-0.10pp YoY, -3.38pp QoQ); the sales expense ratio was 0.24% (+0.05pp YoY), the administrative expense ratio was 6.38% (-2.85pp YoY), the R&D expense ratio was 2.43% (+1.31pp YoY), and the financial expense ratio was -2.75% (+1.36pp YoY). Expense control was sound. The company’s 1Q26 operating profit margin was 12.09% (-5.29pp YoY, -0.25pp QoQ).
Actively shifting to non-ferrous metals
Targeting high-quality growth, Jinling engages in both production and capital operations. Shifting from a cost-centric to a profit-centric strategy, it is transforming from a single iron ore producer into an integrated mineral resources service provider. Expanding into the non-ferrous metal sector, it is securing resource reserves, innovating technologies, deepening reforms, and leveraging capital operations to speed up the acquisition and development of high-quality iron ore and non-ferrous projects. Furthermore, Jinling is strengthening vertical integration across the value chain and advancing market-oriented institutional reforms to continue lifting profitability and long-term sustainability, aiming to become a leading integrated mineral resources service provider in China.
Iron ore: loose S/D could lower iron ore prices in 2026
We expect iron ore capacity to enter an expansion cycle in 2026, with the average iron ore price potentially trending downward. As noted in our report Improving S/D Dynamics Likely the Keynote for Metals in 2026 (published on 17 December 2025), in 2H25, as capacity from replacement projects at the four major mines has ramped up, iron ore supply might continue to increase. Looking to 2026, the newly-commissioned facilities at the four major mines could continue to contribute output, and supply from the Simandou iron ore mine could begin to ramp up, with newly-added capacity potentially adding output of 50mn tonnes. According to the World Steel Association, global demand for steel may grow by 1.3% in 2026 (corresponding to c 22.75mn tonnes of steel), and demand for iron ore concentrate may increase by 30-40mn tonnes. Thus, we think that iron ore mine S/D could turn loose.
Maintain HOLD
We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate the attributable net profits for 2026/2027/2028 at RMB284/285/286mn, with EPS of RMB0.48/0.48/0.48. Considering that Jinling is actively expanding production and seeking development opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, we value the stock at 22.06x 2026E PE, a sustained premium over its peers’ average of 16.01x on iFind consensus. Our target price is RMB10.59 (previous: RMB10.42, based on 21.70x 2026E PE). Maintain HOLD.
Upside risks: lower iron ore prices than we expect; company non-ferrous reforms that exceed our expectations. Downside risks: commodity price volatility; policy implementation falling short of our expectations; weaker downstream demand than we expect.

　　公司发布26年一季报：营业收入3.89亿元（yoy+9.09%，qoq-6.61%）；归属于上市公司股东的净利润0.35亿元（yoy-28.46%，qoq-26.23%），扣非归母净利润0.34亿元（yoy-30.36%，qoq+32.36%）。我们维持盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，维持“持有”评级。
　　铁精粉价格偏弱叠加能源价格上行拖累公司毛利表现
　　公司1Q26营收同比+9.09%，但销售毛利率为15.49%（yoy-8.60pct）。据Mysteel，1Q26澳洲62%粉矿现货价格均值同比-0.68%，环比-0.82%，价格总体平稳；但因铁精粉高库存压制涨价幅度，且能源、运费上涨推高开采与物流成本使得公司毛利收缩。费用端，26年一季度期间费用率6.30%（yoy-0.10pct，qoq-3.38pct），其中销售费用0.24%（yoy+0.05pct），管理费用6.38%（yoy-2.85pct），研发费用2.43%（yoy+1.31pct），财务费用-2.75%（yoy+1.36pct），费用控制良好；公司营业利润率为12.09%（yoy-5.29pct，qoq-0.25pct）。
　　积极转型布局有色金属领域
　　公司坚持以高质量发展为中心，实施生产经营与资本运营双轮驱动，核心围绕从成本中心向利润中心、从单一铁矿生产商向综合矿产资源服务商转型。并积极向有色金属领域拓展布局，通过资源保障、科技创新、深化改革、资本运营等举措，加快优质铁矿及有色资源项目获取与开发。强化产业链协同与市场化机制改革，不断提升综合盈利能力与可持续发展能力，致力打造国内一流的综合矿产资源服务商。
　　铁矿石：26年供需或宽松，铁矿价格中枢或下移
　　我们预期2026年铁矿产能进入扩张周期，铁矿价格中枢或将下移。据《供需改善或成金属行业26年主基调》（25-12-01），25H2，随着四大矿山置换项目产能释放，铁矿石供给或持续增加。展望2026年，四大矿山新投产产能仍将释放部分产量，西芒杜铁矿供给将开始起量，新增产能释放的产量增量或将达到5000万吨。而据国际钢协，2026年全球钢铁需求或增长1.3%（对应约2275万吨钢材），铁精矿需求或增加3000-4000万吨，预期铁矿石供需向宽松转变。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　我们维持原有盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，对应EPS为0.48/0.48/0.48元。可比公司2026年预测PE均值为16.01X，考虑到公司积极扩产并寻求有色行业发展机会，我们维持溢价率并给予公司22.06XPE，目标价10.59元（前值10.42元，基于2026年PE21.70X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

Jinling Mining has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,664mn(+7.64%YoY)and an attributable net profit of RMB268mn(+31.44%YoY),broadly in line with our RMB274mn estimate.We attribute the earnings growth primarily to YoY higher iron ore concentrate sales volumes and reduced unit production cost through operational efficiency improvements.The company is one of the few listed iron ore pure-plays in A-shares and is exploring non-ferrous metal expansion opportunities.Maintain HOLD.
Output growth and effective cost control lifted profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue increased by 7.64%YoY,primarily driven by YoY higher iron ore concentrate sales volumes.The company produced/sold 1,351.5k/1,348.9k tonnes of iron ore concentrate in 2025,rising by 12.4/12.2%YoY.Cost optimization initiatives,including improvements in procurement channels for raw materials and spare parts,limited the increase in operating costs to just 0.93%YoY,lifting the gross margin to 21.96%(+5.20pp YoY).The copper concentrate business delivered rapid growth,with the revenue for 2025 up by 114.36%YoY and the gross margin reaching 86.09%(+15.21pp YoY).The company’s operating expense ratio rose by only 0.97pp YoY to 7.77%under effective cost controls.Additionally,the company has proposed acash dividend of RMB0.126 per share(tax inclusive),with the cumulative dividend payout reaching 132.82%over the past three years.
Iron ore:potential S/D loosening in 2026 may pressure price floor
We anticipate iron ore prices to trend downward in 2026 as global capacity enters an expansion cycle.According to data from the GACC cited in the company’s annual report,China imported 1.26bn tonnes of iron ore in 2025(+1.8%YoY),with an average import price at USD97.76/tonne(-8.6%YoY).As outlined in our report Improving S/D Dynamics Likely the Keynote for Metals in 2026,published on 17 December 2026,2H25 saw increasing supply as capacity replacement projects at major miners came online.For 2026,we expect additional output from newly commissioned capacity at the top four miners,initial production volumes from Simandou,and total new supply potentially reaching 50mtpa.The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand growth of 1.3%in 2026(equivalent to~22.75mn tonnes),which would require 30-40mn tonnes of additional iron ore concentrate.This suggests apotential supply-demand loosening,in our view.
Maintain HOLD
We revise our iron ore price assumptions downward given ongoing price pressure,while raising our production volume estimates and lowering our unit cost projections owing to the company’s capacity expansion and effective cost control.We update our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB284/285/286mn,representing 1.25/1.63%upward revisions for 2026/2027 vs our prior estimates.In our comparable analysis,we remove Dazhong Mining(currently trading at elevated valuations owing to its lithium exposure)from the company’s peer group and add HBIS Resources as anew comparable,considering that the latter’s dual iron ore and copper operations better align with the company’s‘iron ore&non-ferrous transition’strategy.The comparable companies currently trade at an average 2026E PE of 15.75x on iFind consensus.We maintain our 2026E target PE of 21.7x to reflect the company’s production growth and non-ferrous diversification efforts,and derive our new target price of RMB10.42(previous:RMB10.18).Maintain HOLD.
Downside risks:lower iron ore prices and weaker downstream demand than we expect.Upside risks:higher iron ore price and stronger upstream demand than we expect.

　　公司发布25年年报：营业收入16.64亿元，同比增加7.64%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.68亿元，同比增加31.44%，基本符合我们预期（2.74亿元），公司业绩增长主因铁精粉销量同比增加、且公司降本增效，推动单位生产成本同比下降。公司是A股稀缺的铁矿石公司，且积极寻求有色拓展机会，我们维持“持有”评级。
　　主营业务增产+费用控制良好增厚盈利能力
　　公司全年营收同比增加7.64%，主因铁精粉销量同比增加，25年全年公司共生产铁精粉135.15万吨，销售134.89万吨，分别同比增长12.4%/12.2%；且公司积极降本，优化原材料及备件采购渠道，对应营业成本同比仅+0.93%，毛利率21.96%（同比+5.20pct）。此外，公司铜精粉业务增长迅速，2025年全年收入同比增长114.36%，毛利率86.09%，同比+15.21pct。费用端，25年公司全年期间费用率7.77%，同比-0.97pct，费用控制成效显著。此外，公司重视投资者回报，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.26元（含税），近三年累计分红占比达132.82%。
　　铁矿石：26年供需或宽松，铁矿价格中枢或下移
　　我们预期2026年铁矿产能进入扩张周期，铁矿价格中枢或将下移。据公司年报引用海关总署数据，2025年1-12月中国累计进口铁矿石12.58亿吨，同比增长1.8%。累计进口平均价97.76美元/吨，同比下降8.6％。而据我们于12月1日发布的《供需改善或成金属行业26年主基调》，25H2，随着四大矿山置换项目产能释放，铁矿石供给呈现出上升趋势。展望2026年，四大矿山新投产产能仍将释放部分产量，西芒杜铁矿供给将开始起量，新增产能释放的产量增量或将达到5000万吨。而据国际钢协，2026年全球钢铁需求或增长1.3%（对应约2275万吨钢材），铁精矿需求或增加3000-4000万吨，预期铁矿石供需向宽松转变。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　由于铁矿石价格中枢或持续承压，我们下调了铁矿石的价格；但考虑到公司积极扩产，且成本控制良好，我们上调公司产量的同时下调公司的铁矿石单位成本。我们测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，26/27年较前值上调1.25%/1.63%。由于大中矿业开始涉足锂矿，估值偏高，我们删除大中矿业并增加河钢资源作为可比公司，其涉足铁矿及铜矿生产，与公司“铁矿及向有色转型”战略方向相符合，可比公司2026年iFind预测PE均值为15.75倍。考虑到公司积极扩产并寻求有色行业发展机会，我们维持公司2026年21.7倍PE，目标价10.42元（前值10.18元，基于2026年PE21.7倍），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。