事件：近日，金岭矿业发布2026年半年度业绩报告。
　　营收稳步增长，资产质量与经营韧性持续提升，资源拓展降本提质并进。截止2026H1，实现营收8.94亿元，同比增长16.33%；归母净利润1.19亿元，同比下降21.07%；扣非归母净利润1.04亿元，同比下降23.83%。从2026Q2单季来看，实现营收5.05亿元，同比增长22.59%，环比增长29.96%；归母净利润0.83亿元，同比下降17.49%，环比增长137.71%；扣非归母净利润0.71亿元，同比下降20.26%，环比增长109.61%；销售毛利率15.25%。
　　高品位铁精粉构筑核心产品优势，矿产品主业增长，产能利用率持续提升。截止2026H1，铁精粉营收6.68亿元，占总营收74.74%，是第一大收入来源，铜精粉、球团矿分别占比7.44%、11.47%。铜精粉收入同比提升69.52%，毛利率达88%，贡献公司较高毛利来源。公司为提升生产效率扩大了铁精粉产量，外购铁矿石耗用增加，推高了铁精粉单位生产成本。自有矿产能不足以满足扩产需求，外购矿采购成本显著高于自采成本，吨矿利润被摊薄。新设全资子公司山东金舜矿业专项统筹大张铁矿项目运营、勘探及开发，依托探矿权区域高品位富铁矿资源优势夯实长期发展基础。整体来说，公司推进资源增储，未来资源储量有望持续扩张，打开成长新空间。
　　“数智金岭”落地赋能，推进智能配矿数字化升级，保持稳定股东回报。公司落地“数智金岭”一期建设，打通采购、生产、销售、财务全业务数据链路，推进智能配矿等14个人工智能应用场景落地，推动运营决策从经验型向数据型转变。此外，公司完成停运十余年的金铁支线4、5股铁路线修复，盘活长期闲置存量资产，自主掌控铁路运输渠道，开通3个新发运站点，构建核心市场运输网络，实现运输成本下降与市场拓展能力提升。从分红派息来看，2025年派息率超50%，2026年半年度继续延续高分红回报传统。
　　投资建议：预计2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.15/2.58/3.24亿元。公司核心产品质量卓越，市场认可度较高，且拥有优质铁矿石资源，勘探开采潜力较大，估值可给予一定溢价，公司2026-2028年PE分别为19.72x/16.46x/13.09x，维持“推荐”评级。

Jinling Mining reported 1H26 revenue of RMB894mn(+16.33%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)of RMB119mn(-21.07%YoY),and recurring attributable NP of RMB104mn(-23.83%YoY).Revenue growth was driven by higher sales volumes of iron concentrate,copper concentrate and pellets,while the profit decline reflected ahigher proportion of iron ore sourcing that pushed up unit production cost.Looking ahead,driven by the Dazhang iron ore project,copper concentrate by-product recovery rate improvement,and Jinling’s M&A strategy,the company could enhance resource utilization and expand its non-ferrous metal asset base.Maintain HOLD.
1H26:Sales grew,but cost hikes weighed on gross profit
Revenue growth was mainly supported by rising sales of iron concentrate(747.4k tonnes),copper concentrate(567.66 tonnes)and pellets(84.2k tonnes).The profit decline was in large part due to ahigher share of iron ore procurement,which drove operating costs up by 36.21%YoY to RMB757mn,outpacing revenue growth.Overall GPM fell by 12.35pp YoY to 15.35%.Iron concentrate GPM fell by 17.39pp YoY to 8.00%,copper concentrate GPM rose by 4.36pp YoY to 88.03%,and pellet GPM rose by 0.30pp YoY to 14.91%.Overall expense ratio was 5.42%(-1.62pp YoY)and administrative expense ratio was 5.49%(-3.47pp YoY),reflecting sound expense control.
2Q26 revenue and profit improved meaningfully QoQ
For 1Q26,revenue was RMB389mn(+9.09%YoY)and attributable NP was RMB35mn(-28.46%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB505/83/71mn,rising by 29.96/137.71/109.61%QoQ.2Q26 GPM was 15.25%(-0.24pp QoQ).Despite QoQ rising sales volume,a growing share of procured iron ore weighed on margins.Overall expense ratio fell by 1.56pp QoQ to 4.74%.R&D expenses were RMB10mn(+5.31%QoQ),as the company increased investment in new R&D projects,while administrative expenses were RMB24mn,largely flat QoQ.The company values shareholder returns and plans an interim dividend of RMB0.30 per 10 shares,totaling RMB18mn and accounting for 15.06%of 1H26 attributable NP.
Deepening iron ore operations
The company's iron concentrate features high grade and low harmful elements,and has been awarded the only national"Gold Medal".Copper concentrate is recovered as aby-product via flotation,with a2026 production target of 750 tonnes of copper metal.The exploration at Dazhang iron ore is on track,the ore dressing project has received environmental impact assessment approval,and the ecological restoration project for Tieshan tailings pond has passed acceptance.Leveraging its state-owned background and ample capital,the company aims to coordinate mining asset expansion,project construction,green transition and M&A deals.Backed by ample capital operation flexibility,it could upgrade from apure iron ore producer to amulti-metal resource platform through and optimize its earnings mix.
Maintain HOLD
We maintain our earnings forecasts and project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB284/285/286mn,implying EPS of RMB0.48/0.48/0.48.Its peers are trading at an average 2026E PE ratio of 13.15x per iFind consensus.Considering the company is expanding capacity and seeking opportunities in the non-ferrous sector,yet wary that project implementation carries uncertainty,we trim our valuation premium to 25%(previous:37%)and assign 16.44x 2026E PE.Our target price is RMB7.89(previous RMB10.59,based on 22.06x 2026E PE).Maintain HOLD.
Risks:commodity price volatility,policy implementation falling short of expectations,weaker downstream demand than we expect.

　　2026H1公司实现营业收入8.94亿元（yoy+16.33%），归母净利润1.19亿元（yoy-21.07%），扣非归母净利润1.04亿元（yoy-23.83%）。营收增长主要因为铁精粉、铜精粉、球团矿销量增加，利润下滑主要因为外购铁矿石占比提升推高单位生产成本。展望后市，随着大张铁矿项目推进、铜精粉副产品回收率提升及外延拓展战略落地，公司资源综合利用与有色矿产布局有望协同增强。维持“持有”评级。
　　26H1产品量增价稳，成本上升挤压毛利
　　公司营收增长主因铁精粉销量74.74万吨、铜精粉567.66吨、球团矿8.42万吨均同比增加；利润下滑主因外购铁矿石占比提升，营业成本同比+36.21%至7.57亿元，涨幅显著高于营收。整体毛利率15.35%（yoy-12.35pct），其中铁精粉毛利率8.00%（yoy-17.39pct），铜精粉毛利率88.03%（yoy+4.36pct），球团矿毛利率14.91%（yoy+0.30pct）。期间费用率5.42%（yoy-1.62pct），管理费用率5.49%（yoy-3.47pct），费用管控良好。
　　Q2营收利润环比大幅改善
　　26Q1公司实现营业收入3.89亿元（yoy+9.09%），归母净利润0.35亿元（yoy-28.46%），Q2实现营业收入5.05亿元，归母净利润0.83亿元，扣非归母净利润0.71亿元，环比分别增长29.96%、137.71%和109.61%；Q2毛利率15.25%，环比下降0.24pct，主要因为Q2产品销量环比增加及外购铁矿石占比上升。Q2期间费用率4.74%，环比下降1.56pct，其中研发费用0.10亿元（qoq+5.31%），主要因为公司新增多个研发项目投入加大；管理费用0.24亿元，环比基本持平。公司注重股东回报，2026年中期拟每10股派发现金红利0.30元，合计派现0.18亿元，占H1归母净利润15.06%。
　　铁矿主业深耕细作，资源综合利用与外延拓展并举
　　公司铁精粉品位高、有害元素含量低，获国家同类产品唯一"金质奖章"；铜精粉作为副产品通过浮选工艺回收，2026年计划生产铜金属量750吨。项目层面，大张铁矿勘探有序推进，选矿技改完成环评批复，铁山尾矿库生态恢复项目完成验收。外延拓展方面，公司依托国资背景及充裕资金，明确将统筹推进资源增储、项目建设、绿色转型与外延拓展，资本运作空间充足，未来有望通过布局有色等新兴领域，实现从单一铁矿向多金属资源平台升级，盈利结构持续优化。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　我们维持原有盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，对应EPS为0.48/0.48/0.48元。可比公司2026年预测PE均值为13.15X，考虑到公司积极扩产并寻求有色行业发展机会，但项目落地存在不确定性，我们下调溢价率至25%（前值37%）并给予公司16.44XPE，目标价7.89元（前值10.59元，基于2026年PE22.06X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

Jinling Mining’s (Jinling) 1Q26 revenue was RMB389mn (+9.09% YoY, -6.61% QoQ), the attributable net profit was RMB35mn (-28.46% YoY, -26.23% QoQ) and the recurring attributable net profit was RMB34mn (-30.36% YoY, +32.36% QoQ). We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB284/285/286mn. Maintain HOLD .
GPM dented by weak iron concentrate price/energy price hikes
For 1Q26, revenue grew by 9.09% YoY; the sales GPM was 15.49% (-8.60pp YoY). According to Mysteel, the average spot price of Australia 62% iron ore powder edged down by 0.68% YoY/0.82% QoQ for the quarter (largely flat). However, high iron concentrate powder inventories suppressed price increases, while rising energy prices and shipping rates pushed up mining and logistics costs, thus narrowing Jinling’s GPM. For 1Q26, the overall expense ratio was 6.30% (-0.10pp YoY, -3.38pp QoQ); the sales expense ratio was 0.24% (+0.05pp YoY), the administrative expense ratio was 6.38% (-2.85pp YoY), the R&D expense ratio was 2.43% (+1.31pp YoY), and the financial expense ratio was -2.75% (+1.36pp YoY). Expense control was sound. The company’s 1Q26 operating profit margin was 12.09% (-5.29pp YoY, -0.25pp QoQ).
Actively shifting to non-ferrous metals
Targeting high-quality growth, Jinling engages in both production and capital operations. Shifting from a cost-centric to a profit-centric strategy, it is transforming from a single iron ore producer into an integrated mineral resources service provider. Expanding into the non-ferrous metal sector, it is securing resource reserves, innovating technologies, deepening reforms, and leveraging capital operations to speed up the acquisition and development of high-quality iron ore and non-ferrous projects. Furthermore, Jinling is strengthening vertical integration across the value chain and advancing market-oriented institutional reforms to continue lifting profitability and long-term sustainability, aiming to become a leading integrated mineral resources service provider in China.
Iron ore: loose S/D could lower iron ore prices in 2026
We expect iron ore capacity to enter an expansion cycle in 2026, with the average iron ore price potentially trending downward. As noted in our report Improving S/D Dynamics Likely the Keynote for Metals in 2026 (published on 17 December 2025), in 2H25, as capacity from replacement projects at the four major mines has ramped up, iron ore supply might continue to increase. Looking to 2026, the newly-commissioned facilities at the four major mines could continue to contribute output, and supply from the Simandou iron ore mine could begin to ramp up, with newly-added capacity potentially adding output of 50mn tonnes. According to the World Steel Association, global demand for steel may grow by 1.3% in 2026 (corresponding to c 22.75mn tonnes of steel), and demand for iron ore concentrate may increase by 30-40mn tonnes. Thus, we think that iron ore mine S/D could turn loose.
Maintain HOLD
We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate the attributable net profits for 2026/2027/2028 at RMB284/285/286mn, with EPS of RMB0.48/0.48/0.48. Considering that Jinling is actively expanding production and seeking development opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, we value the stock at 22.06x 2026E PE, a sustained premium over its peers’ average of 16.01x on iFind consensus. Our target price is RMB10.59 (previous: RMB10.42, based on 21.70x 2026E PE). Maintain HOLD.
Upside risks: lower iron ore prices than we expect; company non-ferrous reforms that exceed our expectations. Downside risks: commodity price volatility; policy implementation falling short of our expectations; weaker downstream demand than we expect.

　　公司发布26年一季报：营业收入3.89亿元（yoy+9.09%，qoq-6.61%）；归属于上市公司股东的净利润0.35亿元（yoy-28.46%，qoq-26.23%），扣非归母净利润0.34亿元（yoy-30.36%，qoq+32.36%）。我们维持盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，维持“持有”评级。
　　铁精粉价格偏弱叠加能源价格上行拖累公司毛利表现
　　公司1Q26营收同比+9.09%，但销售毛利率为15.49%（yoy-8.60pct）。据Mysteel，1Q26澳洲62%粉矿现货价格均值同比-0.68%，环比-0.82%，价格总体平稳；但因铁精粉高库存压制涨价幅度，且能源、运费上涨推高开采与物流成本使得公司毛利收缩。费用端，26年一季度期间费用率6.30%（yoy-0.10pct，qoq-3.38pct），其中销售费用0.24%（yoy+0.05pct），管理费用6.38%（yoy-2.85pct），研发费用2.43%（yoy+1.31pct），财务费用-2.75%（yoy+1.36pct），费用控制良好；公司营业利润率为12.09%（yoy-5.29pct，qoq-0.25pct）。
　　积极转型布局有色金属领域
　　公司坚持以高质量发展为中心，实施生产经营与资本运营双轮驱动，核心围绕从成本中心向利润中心、从单一铁矿生产商向综合矿产资源服务商转型。并积极向有色金属领域拓展布局，通过资源保障、科技创新、深化改革、资本运营等举措，加快优质铁矿及有色资源项目获取与开发。强化产业链协同与市场化机制改革，不断提升综合盈利能力与可持续发展能力，致力打造国内一流的综合矿产资源服务商。
　　铁矿石：26年供需或宽松，铁矿价格中枢或下移
　　我们预期2026年铁矿产能进入扩张周期，铁矿价格中枢或将下移。据《供需改善或成金属行业26年主基调》（25-12-01），25H2，随着四大矿山置换项目产能释放，铁矿石供给或持续增加。展望2026年，四大矿山新投产产能仍将释放部分产量，西芒杜铁矿供给将开始起量，新增产能释放的产量增量或将达到5000万吨。而据国际钢协，2026年全球钢铁需求或增长1.3%（对应约2275万吨钢材），铁精矿需求或增加3000-4000万吨，预期铁矿石供需向宽松转变。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　我们维持原有盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.84/2.85/2.86亿元，对应EPS为0.48/0.48/0.48元。可比公司2026年预测PE均值为16.01X，考虑到公司积极扩产并寻求有色行业发展机会，我们维持溢价率并给予公司22.06XPE，目标价10.59元（前值10.42元，基于2026年PE21.70X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

Jinling Mining has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,664mn(+7.64%YoY)and an attributable net profit of RMB268mn(+31.44%YoY),broadly in line with our RMB274mn estimate.We attribute the earnings growth primarily to YoY higher iron ore concentrate sales volumes and reduced unit production cost through operational efficiency improvements.The company is one of the few listed iron ore pure-plays in A-shares and is exploring non-ferrous metal expansion opportunities.Maintain HOLD.
Output growth and effective cost control lifted profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue increased by 7.64%YoY,primarily driven by YoY higher iron ore concentrate sales volumes.The company produced/sold 1,351.5k/1,348.9k tonnes of iron ore concentrate in 2025,rising by 12.4/12.2%YoY.Cost optimization initiatives,including improvements in procurement channels for raw materials and spare parts,limited the increase in operating costs to just 0.93%YoY,lifting the gross margin to 21.96%(+5.20pp YoY).The copper concentrate business delivered rapid growth,with the revenue for 2025 up by 114.36%YoY and the gross margin reaching 86.09%(+15.21pp YoY).The company’s operating expense ratio rose by only 0.97pp YoY to 7.77%under effective cost controls.Additionally,the company has proposed acash dividend of RMB0.126 per share(tax inclusive),with the cumulative dividend payout reaching 132.82%over the past three years.
Iron ore:potential S/D loosening in 2026 may pressure price floor
We anticipate iron ore prices to trend downward in 2026 as global capacity enters an expansion cycle.According to data from the GACC cited in the company’s annual report,China imported 1.26bn tonnes of iron ore in 2025(+1.8%YoY),with an average import price at USD97.76/tonne(-8.6%YoY).As outlined in our report Improving S/D Dynamics Likely the Keynote for Metals in 2026,published on 17 December 2026,2H25 saw increasing supply as capacity replacement projects at major miners came online.For 2026,we expect additional output from newly commissioned capacity at the top four miners,initial production volumes from Simandou,and total new supply potentially reaching 50mtpa.The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand growth of 1.3%in 2026(equivalent to~22.75mn tonnes),which would require 30-40mn tonnes of additional iron ore concentrate.This suggests apotential supply-demand loosening,in our view.
Maintain HOLD
We revise our iron ore price assumptions downward given ongoing price pressure,while raising our production volume estimates and lowering our unit cost projections owing to the company’s capacity expansion and effective cost control.We update our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB284/285/286mn,representing 1.25/1.63%upward revisions for 2026/2027 vs our prior estimates.In our comparable analysis,we remove Dazhong Mining(currently trading at elevated valuations owing to its lithium exposure)from the company’s peer group and add HBIS Resources as anew comparable,considering that the latter’s dual iron ore and copper operations better align with the company’s‘iron ore&non-ferrous transition’strategy.The comparable companies currently trade at an average 2026E PE of 15.75x on iFind consensus.We maintain our 2026E target PE of 21.7x to reflect the company’s production growth and non-ferrous diversification efforts,and derive our new target price of RMB10.42(previous:RMB10.18).Maintain HOLD.
Downside risks:lower iron ore prices and weaker downstream demand than we expect.Upside risks:higher iron ore price and stronger upstream demand than we expect.