Shandong Jinling Mining's revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB407/ 70mn (-0.42/-0.38% yoy, -2.49/+21.05% qoq) for 3Q24, and RMB1,104/150mn (+2.35/-15.21% yoy) for 9M24. With the continuous rollout of domestic economic policies in 3Q24, iron ore prices stabilized in the short term. The company's iron ore output has remained steady, focusing on achieving solid profits by cutting costs and improving efficiency. Maintain HOLD.

1H24 attributable NP -25.0% yoy, maintain HOLD
For 1H24, Jinling Mining’s (Jinling) revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB698/80mn (+4.03/-25.0% yoy). We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB0.37/0.38/0.39. We value the stock at 15.2x 2024E PE, at par with its peers’ average on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB5.62 (previous: RMB6.25). Maintain HOLD.
1H24 price of fine iron powder +4.9% yoy, unit profit dipped yoy
According to Jinling’s interim results report, its output of fine iron powder/pellets in 1H24 was 540,600/79,100 tonnes (+9.9/-41.4% yoy). Its gross profit margin (GPM) was 18.74% (-3.60pp yoy) for the ferrous metal segment. The average price of the company's main product, fine iron powder, was RMB974/tonne (+4.9% yoy), with a unit cost of RMB806/tonne (+13.7% yoy), and a unit profit of RMB168/tonne (-RMB51/tonne yoy). Raw-material price hikes for fine iron powder pushed up costs, leading to a yoy reduction in unit profit, in our view. The GPM for pellet ore was 15.92%, up 2.77pp yoy.
Expense ratios up yoy, interim cash dividend of c RMB11.91mn
Based on the interim results, in 1H24, the expense ratio was 8.23% (+0.4pp yoy), with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 0.12/9.81/1.56/-3.27% (-0.04/+0.19/+0.52/-0.28pp yoy). During the period, some of the company's R&D projects entered the experimental development stage, resulting in an increase in R&D expenses. Investment income was c RMB44mn (-RMB9mn yoy), including RMB44mn of attributable investment income from the company’s ownership of Jinding Mining (+RMB12mn yoy). The decline in overall investment income was mainly due to dividend income of RMB21mn from other equity instruments in 1H23, which did not recur in 1H24. The company proposed distributing an interim cash dividend of RMB11.91mn, accounting for c 14.9% of its 1H24 attributable NP.
Loose S/D dynamics for iron ore, prices dented in 2H24
Global iron ore shipments in 2024 have remained at a high level, increasing by 3.8% yoy ytd, with shipments from Brazil up 6.9% yoy. In 6M24, China imported 611mn tonnes of iron ore, a rise of 6.2% yoy, with notable increases in imports from Brazil, India, and other countries. As iron ore supply has increased, port stockpiles have continued to accumulate, reaching 150mn tonnes. Despite a recovery in iron fluid output, a destocking inflection point has yet to emerge. Currently, iron ore inventory levels have reached significantly high levels compared with the period since 2020, indicating a relatively loose supply pattern, which may continue to exert pressure on prices, in our view.
Downside risks: weaker downstream demand than we expect; adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; and adverse changes in industry policies. Upside risk: higher iron ore prices than we expect.

　　公司公布24Q3业绩：收入4.07亿元（yoy-0.42%，qoq-2.49%）；归母净利润0.70亿元（yoy-0.38%,qoq+21.05%）。24Q1-3累计收入11.04亿元（yoy+2.35%）；归母净利润1.50亿元（yoy-15.21%）。随着Q3国内经济政策持续出台，铁矿价格短期趋稳；公司铁矿石产量稳定并以实现较好利润为主要目标，积极降本增效，维持“持有”评级。
　　Q3业绩环比上升主要因为资产处置和财务费用下降所致
　　据Wind，淄博65%铁精粉24Q3均价为956元较24Q2均价1047元环比下降8.7%，公司销售毛利率从24Q2的18%降至17.1%。毛利率的下降幅度低于价格跌幅，我们认为主要是公司降本增效所致；公司确立了以“划小核算单元”为管理工具，不断优化生产工艺，实施精准配矿，加强成本管控。此外，24Q3的业绩的环比改善主要是因为资产处置收益约1013万元，管理费用和财务费用也出现了小幅下降。公司Q2和Q3均进行了现金分红，截至24Q3，累计分红率约为27.7%。
　　铁矿石短期或持稳为主，中期供给压力大
　　9月随着国内陆续出台经济扶持政策，钢铁行业也逐步走出了全行业亏损的困局，行业截至10月中旬247家钢企盈利率升至70%以上，钢材价格和铁水产量也出现回升。因此铁矿石短期呈现供需格局改善，62%品位铁矿石普氏指数价格回升至$100附近，我们认为鉴于国内铁矿可统计库存仍处高位，且供给并未减少，因此铁矿石价格或维持在$90-100震荡为主。而针对中远期，海外仍有数千万吨铁矿新增项目将于25年建成投产，而全球钢铁供需趋于平稳，因此我们认为铁矿供给的显著增加或将形成铁矿石价格未来下行压力。
　　给予目标价6.00元，维持“持有”评级
　　随着Q3国内经济政策持续出台，铁矿价格短期趋稳；公司铁矿石产量稳定并以实现较好利润为主要目标，积极降本增效，我们下调公司生产成本假设，预计24-26年公司EPS分别0.38/0.40/0.42元（前值0.37/0.38/0.39元）。可比公司PE（2025E）均值为12.3X，考虑公司竞得齐河县大张地区铁矿普查探矿权，铁矿资源储备进一步提升，给予公司25年15.0倍PE估值，对应目标价6.00元（前值5.62元），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，钢铁行业政策变化。

　　24H1归母净利润同比-25.0%，维持“持有”评级
　　公司24H1实现营收6.98亿元（yoy+4.03%），归母净利润0.8亿元（yoy-25.0%），其中24Q2归母净利润0.58亿元（yoy-35.81%，qoq+162.08%）。我们维持盈利预测，预计24-26年公司EPS分别0.37/0.38/0.39元。可比公司PE（2024E）均值为15.2X，给予公司24年15.2倍PE估值，对应目标价5.62元（前值6.25元），维持“持有”评级。
　　24H1铁精粉价格同比+4.9%，成本上升导致单位毛利同比有所下降
　　据公司半年报，24H1公司铁精粉产量54.06万吨（yoy+9.9%），球团产量7.91万吨（yoy-41.4%）。24H1公司黑色金属板块毛利率为18.74%（yoy-3.60pct）；24H1主要产品铁精粉均价974元/吨（yoy+4.9%），单位成本806元/吨（yoy+13.7%），单位毛利168元/吨（yoy-51元/吨），铁精粉原材料价格上涨导致成本增加，单位毛利同比有所下降。球团毛利率15.92%（yoy+2.77pct），同比有所增长。
　　期间费用同比有所增加，派发中期现金分红约1191万元
　　据公司半年报，24H1公司期间费用率8.23%（yoy+0.4pct），其中销售费用率0.12%（yoy-0.04pct）、管理费用率9.81%（yoy+0.19pct）、研发费用率1.56%（yoy+0.52pct）、财务费用率-3.27%（yoy-0.28pct），报告期内，公司部分研发项目进入试验发展阶段，导致研发费用有所增加。24H1公司投资收益约0.44亿元，同比减少0.09亿元，其中金鼎矿业权益法对应投资收益0.44元，同比增加约0.12亿元，减少部分主要为23H1其他权益工具股利收入0.21亿元。此外，公司拟派发中期现金分红1191万元，约占24H1归母净利润14.9%。
　　铁矿石供需较为宽松，24H2价格或仍有一定压力
　　2024年全球铁矿石发运量维持较高水平，全球铁矿石发运量同比增加3.8%，其中巴西发运量同比增加6.9%；1-6月中国进口铁矿石6.11亿吨，同比+6.2%，其中巴西、印度等进口增量明显。随着铁矿石供应增加，铁矿石港口库存持续累积至1.5亿吨水平，且在铁水产量回升后去库拐点仍未出现。目前铁矿石库存已累积至2020年以来明显高位，铁矿石供应呈现较为宽松格局，价格或仍有一定压力。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，原材料价格大幅波动，钢铁行业政策变化。