事件：公司发布2025年年报。2025年，公司实现营收370.22亿元，同比增加2.29%；归母净利润9.47亿元，同比增加465.67%；扣非归母净利7.38亿元，同比扭亏。2025Q4，公司实现营收98.39亿元，同比增加7.96%、环比增加4.06%；归母净利润2.48亿元，同比扭亏、环比减少16.18%；扣非归母净利1.05亿元，同比扭亏、环比减少61.85%。
　　点评：销量同比增长，毛利率显著修复
　　①销量同比增长。2025年，公司钢铁产品销量949.21万吨，同比增长5.41%，其中铸管、优特钢、普钢销量分别为326.98、308.81、313.42万吨，同比分别+17、+61、-30万吨，埃及铸管项目于25年5月进入试生产阶段，9月实现首批订单发运，铸管销量实现增长，钢材中优特钢比例进一步提升。2026年，金属制品产量指引1086万吨，较25年目标提升94万吨。
　　②毛利率同比显著修复。25Q4河北球墨铸管、球墨铸铁价格环比分别-74、+105元/吨，行业利润收窄；公司毛利率7.20%，环比-0.69pct，同比+2.36pct。分品种来看，25年铸管、优特钢、普钢毛利率分别为12.18%、5.27%、5.67%，同比分别+3.61、+3.81、+0.31pct，铸管、优特钢毛利率较24年明显修复。
　　未来核心看点：外延扩张加速推进，管网改造需求广阔
　　①落实国际化战略布局，埃及新兴顺利投产达产。埃及新兴25万吨铸管项目于25年5月进入试生产阶段，9月实现首批订单发运，开创“技术输出+本地化运营”新模式，推动沿线国家产能合作，进一步落实国际化战略布局，全年铸管出口量增长7.8%，保持国内出口铸管量的70%份额。
　　②收购华润制钢，加快优特钢转型。25年12月，公司收购华润制钢100%股权，华润制钢具备年炼钢产能94万吨、各类优质无缝钢管产能40万吨、各类工模具钢轧板产能5万吨，25年1-8月华润制钢净利润为7446万元，净利率4.10%，本次收购将增厚公司利润，加快优特钢转型战略，推动产品持续向中高端跃升。
　　③积极拓展增量市场，管网改造需求广阔。开拓农田灌溉及管网更新改造增量市场，加强污水行业省级开发。全年累计跟踪125个项目，覆盖23省，含29个重大项目，销量同比增长20%。差高化产品月销6万吨以上。“十五五”期间，发改委预计将建设改造地下管网超过70万公里，新增投资需求超过5万亿元。国内铸管市场将迎来新的发展机遇，球墨铸铁管的下游需求有望逐步释放。
　　投资建议：公司是球墨铸铁行业龙头，受益于国内城市管网改造，公司盈利能力有望修复，我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为11.49、12.90和14.39亿元，对应现价，PE分别为15/14/12倍，公司内生利润修复+外延产能扩张，盈利能力有望持续提升，调整为“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，项目建设不及预期，原料价格大幅波动。

Xinxing Pipes’1H26 revenue rose 19.17%YoY to RMB21,126mn,attributable net profit fell 8.00%YoY to RMB372mn,and recurring net profit fell 14.84%YoY to RMB304mn.Revenue growth was driven by higher special steel sales volume and arising cast pipe market share.Profit declined as rising raw material prices pushed cost growth above revenue growth.We expect the profit structure to improve gradually on the special steel product mix upgrade and the transition toward an integrated pipe network service provider.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Special steel volume drove revenue growth
For 1H26,revenue growth was driven by special steel revenue of RMB7,933mn,up 59.73%YoY,and an 8%YoY increase in the cast pipe public tender market share.Profit declined as rising raw material prices lifted operating cost 21.39%YoY to RMB19,828mn,outpacing revenue growth.Overall gross margin was 6.15%,down 1.72pp YoY.Gross profit from steel-related products(cast pipes and fittings,ordinary steel and special steel)fell 2.5%YoY,while gross profit from other products(distribution,by-products and steel grating)fell 52.2%YoY.The expense ratio was 3.55%,down 0.90pp YoY.
Special steel transformation accelerates
The company continues to advance its strategy of upgrading from ordinary steel to special steel,from special steel to premium steel,and from premium steel to refined steel,focusing on cast pipes,steel and new industries.In 1H26,special steel sales volume rose 23%YoY,with Wuhu special steel volume up 26%YoY.After acquiring Huarun Steel,the company is pushing for greater synergy between Wuhu Xinxing and Jiangyin Xinxing special steel operations.Cast pipes maintained their industry-leading position,with public tender market share up 8%YoY in 1H26,and heating pipes were promoted in several northern provinces and cities.On capacity,the 250ktpa ductile iron pipe project in Egypt started production in 2025,creating anew model for technology exports and localized operations.In new businesses,Xinxing advanced full-chain development around vanadium redox flow batteries in 1H26,forming an integrated innovation system with the Tianjin research institute as the technology R&D center,supported by abattery production base and aWuan electrolyte production base.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
We maintain our earnings forecasts.We forecast 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.28/0.32/0.40 and BVPS of RMB6.86/7.11/7.43.Peers’average 2026E PB is 0.53x on iFinD consensus.Factoring in strong momentum in water conservancy investment benefiting ductile pipe demand,we maintain our premium and apply 0.60x 2026E PB,deriving atarget price of RMB4.14(previous:RMB5.08,based on 0.74x 2026E PB).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:weaker steel demand than we expect,sharp rise in raw material prices,slower special steel transformation than we expect,overseas project operational risks,and dilution risk from private placement.

　　事件：公司发布2026年半年度报告。公司2026年上半年实现营业收入211.26亿元，同比增长19.17%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润3.72亿元，同比减少8.0%；基本每股收益0.0938元，同比减少7.86%。
　　二季度净利回落，毛利率小幅走弱。公司2026Q2实现归母净利1.74亿元，同比下降34.67%，环比下降11.6%，实现扣非归母净利1.35亿元，同比下降42.98%，环比下降20.21%；2026上半年钢铁行业利润总额317.7亿元，同比下降25%，公司归母净利同比降幅低于行业，盈利具备稳健特征。公司2025Q3-2026Q2逐季销售毛利率分别为7.89%、7.20%、6.38%、5.94%，分产品来看，铸管及管铸件、普钢、优特钢毛利率分别为8.68%、6.27%、6.34%，同比增减分别为-2.82pct、+1.05pct、+0.26pct，随着供需格局边际改善，政策调控发力，成本端压力缓解，预计2026年我国钢铁行业盈利能力将继续修复，“十五五”时期将建设改造地下管网超过70万公里，高标准农田建设、雨污分流领域需求处于增长阶段，产品差异化、服务多样化特征明显，铸管行业仍面临发展较多机遇，行业及公司盈利有望继续改善。
　　铸管市占率提升，产品结构逐步改善。铸管方面，2026年上半年公司铸管产品在公开招标市场占有率同比提高8%，由新兴铸管主持制定针对环氧陶瓷内衬的球墨铸铁管国际标准正式发布，为首个由中国铸铁管国家标准上升为国际标准的成功范例；埃及25万吨球墨铸铁管项目开创“技术输出+本地化运营”新模式，推动沿线国家产能合作。储能方面，公司与中国科学院大连化学物理研究所签署战略合作协议，加入了中央企业新型储能创新联合体并成立了新兴绿色能源与新材料天津研究院，新兴储能板块将以全钒液流电池作为储能电池的战略突破口，推动全钒液流电池全产业链建设；随着铸管及储能业务进一步扩张，公司产品结构有望逐步改善。
　　投资建议：公司为国内球墨铸管行业龙头，持续受益于钢铁行业产能利用率恢复、城市管网改造及水利设施建设，其盈利能力有望修复，考虑到当前供需格局及铸管毛利率偏低，我们预计公司2026年~2028年实现归母净利分别为8.0亿元、9.0亿元、10.1亿元，按照市值与重置成本的比对来看，目前公司仍处于价值低估区，具备较好的战略配置价值，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：上游原料价格大幅上涨，钢材需求不及预期，新业务发展存在不确定性。

　　2026H1公司实现营业收入211.26亿元（yoy+19.17%），归母净利润3.72亿元（yoy-8.00%），扣非归母净利润3.04亿元（yoy-14.84%）。营收增长主要因为优特钢销量增加及铸管市场占有率提升；利润下滑主要因为原材料价格上涨导致成本增幅高于营收增幅。展望后市，随着优特钢产品结构调整及管网综合服务商转型推进，公司盈利结构有望逐步优化。维持"增持"评级。
　　26H1优特钢放量驱动营收增长，毛利率小幅承压
　　26H1营收增长主要因为优特钢收入79.33亿元（yoy+59.73%）及铸管公开招标市场占有率同比提高8%；利润下滑主要因为原材料价格上涨导致营业成本同比+21.39%至198.28亿元，涨幅高于营收，公司整体毛利率为6.15%（yoy-1.72pct）。此外公司钢铁相关产品（铸管及管铸件+普钢+优特钢）毛利同比下降2.5%，其他产品（分销配送/副产品/钢格板等）毛利同比下降52.2%。期间费用率3.55%（yoy-0.90pct）。
　　优特钢转型加速，管网服务商转型推进
　　公司持续推进"普转优、优转特、特转精"战略，聚焦铸管、钢铁、新产业三大领域。业务层面，26H1优特钢销量同比增长23%，其中芜湖优特钢销量同比增长26%，收购华润制钢后正大力推动芜湖新兴与江阴新兴特钢联动协同；铸管保持行业首位，2026年上半年公开招标市场占有率同比提高8%，热力管在北方多省市推广使用。产能布局层面，埃及25万吨球墨铸铁管项目已于2025年顺利投产，开创"技术输出+本地化运营"新模式。新兴业务层面，公司上半年围绕全钒液流电池推进全产业链建设，已形成以天津研究院为技术研发中心，包含电池生产基地和武安电解液生产基地在内的一体化创新体系。
　　维持“增持”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，预测2026-2028年EPS分别为0.28/0.32/0.40元；BVPS分别为6.86/7.11/7.43元。可比公司2026年PB一致预期为0.53X，我们延续溢价率，给予公司2026年0.60XPB，对应目标价4.14元。（前值5.08元，基于2026年PB估值0.74X）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：钢铁行业需求不及预期；原材料价格大幅上涨；优特钢转型进度不及预期；海外项目运营风险；定增摊薄风险。

In 1Q26,Xinxing Pipes achieved revenue of RMB9.9bn(+17.93%YoY),attributable NP of RMB197mn(+43.94%YoY),and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB169mn(+40.50%YoY).High earnings growth mainly benefited from top-line growth and adecline in the period expense ratio.However,the YoY decline in gross margin(GPM)reflected headwinds on steel prices.We expect continued improvement in earnings as demand from cast pipe water network construction is unleased and the Egypt project moves forward.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM fell YoY but lower opex ratio unlocked earnings power
GPM fell 1.24pp YoY to 6.37%,mainly due to declining steel prices and feedstock price swings.In 1Q26,the steel industry suffered high costs,weak demand,and weak profitability.The period expense ratio came down 1.02pp YoY to 3.72%.Selling expenses were RMB79mn(-4.43%YoY),G&A expenses were RMB150mn(-8.80%YoY),R&D expenses were RMB73mn(-24.07%YoY),and financial expenses were RMB65mn(+23.31%YoY).Higher financial expenses were mainly related to lower interest income.Non-recurring gains of RMB28mn accounted for 14.21%of attributable NP,which mainly came from gains from the disposal of equity interests in Lianxin Real Estate and government subsidies.Excluding this,ex-nonrecurring net profit grew by 40.50%YoY,reflecting improved core business profitability.
Cast pipe share gains in 1Q26 with industry-leading margins
In 1Q26,the company achieved revenue of RMB9.9bn(+17.93%YoY),attributable NP of RMB197mn(+43.94%YoY),and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB169mn(+40.50%YoY).According to company disclosures and industry data,national crude steel output fell 4.6%YoY in 1Q26,while steel product output fell 1.7%YoY.The industry's profitable segment narrowed.The cast pipe industry was affected by project funding and the Chinese New Year holiday,leading to low shipments in January-February.In March,demand gradually improved as policy benefits such as water transportation network were delivered.The company's cast pipe products saw aYoY increase in the share of public market tenders.Its steel product costs and profitability remained at the forefront of the industry.Major operating indicators improved significantly YoY.
Mix upgrade while going global
In 2026,the company continues to promote product mix upgrades and international expansion.It aims to increase the share of high-value-added products and expand overseas markets.At the business level,it focuses on improving the overall competitiveness of cast pipes and building adifferentiated steel product portfolio.Special steel and high-end cast pipe products are likely to accelerate volume growth.At the internationalization level,the company is promoting the ramp-up and efficiency improvement of Xinxing Egypt in an integrated way.Growth in export sales volume is likely to continue contributing incremental growth.As policy benefits from water transportation network are delivered and the share of high-value-added products increases,we expect the company's earnings are likely to improve sequentially by quarter.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
We maintain our earnings forecasts,with EPS of RMB0.28,RMB0.32,and RMB0.40 in 2026,2027,and 2028,respectively,along with BVPS of RMB6.86,RMB7.11,and RMB7.43.Comparable companies are trading at 0.64x 2026E PB based on consensus estimates.We maintain our premium and assign the company 0.74x 2026E PB,deriving atarget price of RMB5.08.Our previous target price was RMB5.21,based on 0.76x 2026E PB.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:1.The steel industry's supply-demand dynamic may deteriorate,and steel prices may decline further than we expected;2.Downstream infrastructure investment for cast pipes may fall short of our expectations,and demand realization may slow;3.Raw material and fuel prices may fluctuate sharply,increasing cost pressure;4.International projects may advance more slowly than expected,delaying overseas capacity ramp-up.

　　事项：
　　公司发布《2025年年度报告》，2025年公司实现营业总收入370.22亿元，同比上升2.29%，实现归母净利润9.47亿元，同比增长465.67%，扣非后归母净利润7.38亿元，同比扭亏589.92%；同时，公司发布《2026年一季报》，26Q1，公司实现营业总收入98.76亿元，同比增长17.93%，实现归母净利润1.97亿元，同比增长43.94%，扣非后归母净利润1.69亿元，同比增长40.50%。
　　评论：
　　成本降幅大于钢价，行业利润修复。2025年钢铁行业虽仍然面临供需间结构性矛盾，但原燃料价格降幅大于钢材价格跌幅，进而导致钢材利润同比出现修复。2025年，钢材综合价格指数同比下跌9.03%，而成本端（Mysteel统计的114家钢铁企业不含税铁水成本）同比下降12.22%。2025年公司销售毛利率7.69%，同比上升2.29个百分点。
　　优特钢业务改善明显，贡献利润增量。2025年，钢铁新品创效赋能，精准布局能源、汽车用钢等高端领域，累计开发新品种57项，优特钢销量同比增长24.86%，其中芜湖新兴优特钢销量同比增长33%。毛利方面，2025年优特钢产品实现毛利5.5亿元，同比增厚利润5.18亿元。
　　铸管业务依然为最稳压舱石。公司是我国球墨铸铁管龙头企业，在市场需求不足情况下，公司充分发挥自身铸管产品优势，2025年，铸管国内公开招标市场占有率同比提升1.6个百分点，出口销量同比增长7.8%，产能利用率远高于行业平均水平。全年铸管及管铸件产品贡献毛利15.39亿元，同比增长49.49%，毛利占比进一步提升至54.03%。
　　投资建议：公司球磨铸管业务托底业绩，储能业务或为公司提供成长空间。除主业外，公司以全钒液流储能关键材料为方向，以天津研究院为技术研发平台，结合电池生产基地和武安电解液生产基地，形成协同研发能力，未来有望成为公司新的发展方向。我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润为10.41亿元、11.08亿元、12.43亿元，同比增长9.9%、6.4%、12.2%。公司近三年以来平均PB水平为0.61倍，考虑到公司作为市场球墨铸铁管龙头企业，在未来水利、水网建设中具备优势，给予公司一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年0.8倍PB，对应目标价5.5元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：铸管下游需求恢复不及预期，上游原材料价格大幅波动，产业政策执行不及预期。