Soft Market Climate Dampened Profits
发布时间:2024-11-05 来源:华泰金融(HK)
Xinxing Pipes' (Xinxing) revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB8,349/56mn (-29.25/-77.77% yoy, -13.10/-78.30% qoq) for 3Q24, and RMB27,080/483mn (-25.44/-55.61% yoy) for 9M24. Aligning with the overall industry condition in 3Q24, the company's profits declined qoq on weak steel demand. Looking ahead, we expect Xinxing's performance to improve in 4Q24, backed by domestic policy initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence and continued investment in water infrastructure. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Industry pressures weighed on 3Q24 results, profits down qoq
Xinxing reported 3Q24 gross profit margin (GPM) of 4.8% (-1.7/-2.0pp yoy/qoq). The steel industry experienced challenging conditions in 3Q24. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the cumulative profit of key steel companies fell 56.39% yoy in 9M24, with an average profit margin of 0.64%, down 0.72pp yoy. Due to soft demand, steel prices continued declining in 3Q24, and according to Mysteel, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises dropped from c. 50% in June to nearly sector-wide losses, underscoring the severe environment for steel companies in 3Q24. Xinxing's 9M24 profit was RMB0.54bn, down 57.59% yoy, reflecting the broader industry trend.
Policy support boosting confidence, earnings may recover in 4Q24
Since late September, several press conferences have been held by government bodies, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, with announcements focusing on policies to stabilize the property sector and increase infrastructure investment, effectively boosting market confidence. During this period, China's Composite Steel Price Index rallied from 90.42 to over 100, leading to a notable rebound in steel profits. According to Mysteel, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises, which had fallen to nearly sector-wide losses in late August, recovered to c. 70% in October, indicating that steel companies' performance is likely to improve in 4Q24, in our view.
Target price RMB4.68, maintain OVERWEIGHT
Given the ongoing challenges faced by the industry and the company, we lower our assumptions for steel and cast pipe prices and raise assumptions for overall expense ratio. We estimate 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB0.20/0.22/0.25 (previous: RMB0.26/0.28/0.32), with BPS of RMB6.52/6.68/6.86 (previous: RMB6.58/6.78/ 7.01). In light of promising demand for Xinxing's pipe business bolstered by buoyant investment sentiment in water conservancy, we value the stock at 0.70x 2025E PB, above its peers' average of 0.60x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB4.68 (previous: RMB3.95). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: downstream demand weaker than we expect; significant fluctuations in raw material prices.