事件：公司发布2025年年报。2025年，公司实现营收370.22亿元，同比增加2.29%；归母净利润9.47亿元，同比增加465.67%；扣非归母净利7.38亿元，同比扭亏。2025Q4，公司实现营收98.39亿元，同比增加7.96%、环比增加4.06%；归母净利润2.48亿元，同比扭亏、环比减少16.18%；扣非归母净利1.05亿元，同比扭亏、环比减少61.85%。
　　点评：销量同比增长，毛利率显著修复
　　①销量同比增长。2025年，公司钢铁产品销量949.21万吨，同比增长5.41%，其中铸管、优特钢、普钢销量分别为326.98、308.81、313.42万吨，同比分别+17、+61、-30万吨，埃及铸管项目于25年5月进入试生产阶段，9月实现首批订单发运，铸管销量实现增长，钢材中优特钢比例进一步提升。2026年，金属制品产量指引1086万吨，较25年目标提升94万吨。
　　②毛利率同比显著修复。25Q4河北球墨铸管、球墨铸铁价格环比分别-74、+105元/吨，行业利润收窄；公司毛利率7.20%，环比-0.69pct，同比+2.36pct。分品种来看，25年铸管、优特钢、普钢毛利率分别为12.18%、5.27%、5.67%，同比分别+3.61、+3.81、+0.31pct，铸管、优特钢毛利率较24年明显修复。
　　未来核心看点：外延扩张加速推进，管网改造需求广阔
　　①落实国际化战略布局，埃及新兴顺利投产达产。埃及新兴25万吨铸管项目于25年5月进入试生产阶段，9月实现首批订单发运，开创“技术输出+本地化运营”新模式，推动沿线国家产能合作，进一步落实国际化战略布局，全年铸管出口量增长7.8%，保持国内出口铸管量的70%份额。
　　②收购华润制钢，加快优特钢转型。25年12月，公司收购华润制钢100%股权，华润制钢具备年炼钢产能94万吨、各类优质无缝钢管产能40万吨、各类工模具钢轧板产能5万吨，25年1-8月华润制钢净利润为7446万元，净利率4.10%，本次收购将增厚公司利润，加快优特钢转型战略，推动产品持续向中高端跃升。
　　③积极拓展增量市场，管网改造需求广阔。开拓农田灌溉及管网更新改造增量市场，加强污水行业省级开发。全年累计跟踪125个项目，覆盖23省，含29个重大项目，销量同比增长20%。差高化产品月销6万吨以上。“十五五”期间，发改委预计将建设改造地下管网超过70万公里，新增投资需求超过5万亿元。国内铸管市场将迎来新的发展机遇，球墨铸铁管的下游需求有望逐步释放。
　　投资建议：公司是球墨铸铁行业龙头，受益于国内城市管网改造，公司盈利能力有望修复，我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为11.49、12.90和14.39亿元，对应现价，PE分别为15/14/12倍，公司内生利润修复+外延产能扩张，盈利能力有望持续提升，调整为“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，项目建设不及预期，原料价格大幅波动。

In 1Q26,Xinxing Pipes achieved revenue of RMB9.9bn(+17.93%YoY),attributable NP of RMB197mn(+43.94%YoY),and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB169mn(+40.50%YoY).High earnings growth mainly benefited from top-line growth and adecline in the period expense ratio.However,the YoY decline in gross margin(GPM)reflected headwinds on steel prices.We expect continued improvement in earnings as demand from cast pipe water network construction is unleased and the Egypt project moves forward.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM fell YoY but lower opex ratio unlocked earnings power
GPM fell 1.24pp YoY to 6.37%,mainly due to declining steel prices and feedstock price swings.In 1Q26,the steel industry suffered high costs,weak demand,and weak profitability.The period expense ratio came down 1.02pp YoY to 3.72%.Selling expenses were RMB79mn(-4.43%YoY),G&A expenses were RMB150mn(-8.80%YoY),R&D expenses were RMB73mn(-24.07%YoY),and financial expenses were RMB65mn(+23.31%YoY).Higher financial expenses were mainly related to lower interest income.Non-recurring gains of RMB28mn accounted for 14.21%of attributable NP,which mainly came from gains from the disposal of equity interests in Lianxin Real Estate and government subsidies.Excluding this,ex-nonrecurring net profit grew by 40.50%YoY,reflecting improved core business profitability.
Cast pipe share gains in 1Q26 with industry-leading margins
In 1Q26,the company achieved revenue of RMB9.9bn(+17.93%YoY),attributable NP of RMB197mn(+43.94%YoY),and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB169mn(+40.50%YoY).According to company disclosures and industry data,national crude steel output fell 4.6%YoY in 1Q26,while steel product output fell 1.7%YoY.The industry's profitable segment narrowed.The cast pipe industry was affected by project funding and the Chinese New Year holiday,leading to low shipments in January-February.In March,demand gradually improved as policy benefits such as water transportation network were delivered.The company's cast pipe products saw aYoY increase in the share of public market tenders.Its steel product costs and profitability remained at the forefront of the industry.Major operating indicators improved significantly YoY.
Mix upgrade while going global
In 2026,the company continues to promote product mix upgrades and international expansion.It aims to increase the share of high-value-added products and expand overseas markets.At the business level,it focuses on improving the overall competitiveness of cast pipes and building adifferentiated steel product portfolio.Special steel and high-end cast pipe products are likely to accelerate volume growth.At the internationalization level,the company is promoting the ramp-up and efficiency improvement of Xinxing Egypt in an integrated way.Growth in export sales volume is likely to continue contributing incremental growth.As policy benefits from water transportation network are delivered and the share of high-value-added products increases,we expect the company's earnings are likely to improve sequentially by quarter.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
We maintain our earnings forecasts,with EPS of RMB0.28,RMB0.32,and RMB0.40 in 2026,2027,and 2028,respectively,along with BVPS of RMB6.86,RMB7.11,and RMB7.43.Comparable companies are trading at 0.64x 2026E PB based on consensus estimates.We maintain our premium and assign the company 0.74x 2026E PB,deriving atarget price of RMB5.08.Our previous target price was RMB5.21,based on 0.76x 2026E PB.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:1.The steel industry's supply-demand dynamic may deteriorate,and steel prices may decline further than we expected;2.Downstream infrastructure investment for cast pipes may fall short of our expectations,and demand realization may slow;3.Raw material and fuel prices may fluctuate sharply,increasing cost pressure;4.International projects may advance more slowly than expected,delaying overseas capacity ramp-up.

　　事项：
　　公司发布《2025年年度报告》，2025年公司实现营业总收入370.22亿元，同比上升2.29%，实现归母净利润9.47亿元，同比增长465.67%，扣非后归母净利润7.38亿元，同比扭亏589.92%；同时，公司发布《2026年一季报》，26Q1，公司实现营业总收入98.76亿元，同比增长17.93%，实现归母净利润1.97亿元，同比增长43.94%，扣非后归母净利润1.69亿元，同比增长40.50%。
　　评论：
　　成本降幅大于钢价，行业利润修复。2025年钢铁行业虽仍然面临供需间结构性矛盾，但原燃料价格降幅大于钢材价格跌幅，进而导致钢材利润同比出现修复。2025年，钢材综合价格指数同比下跌9.03%，而成本端（Mysteel统计的114家钢铁企业不含税铁水成本）同比下降12.22%。2025年公司销售毛利率7.69%，同比上升2.29个百分点。
　　优特钢业务改善明显，贡献利润增量。2025年，钢铁新品创效赋能，精准布局能源、汽车用钢等高端领域，累计开发新品种57项，优特钢销量同比增长24.86%，其中芜湖新兴优特钢销量同比增长33%。毛利方面，2025年优特钢产品实现毛利5.5亿元，同比增厚利润5.18亿元。
　　铸管业务依然为最稳压舱石。公司是我国球墨铸铁管龙头企业，在市场需求不足情况下，公司充分发挥自身铸管产品优势，2025年，铸管国内公开招标市场占有率同比提升1.6个百分点，出口销量同比增长7.8%，产能利用率远高于行业平均水平。全年铸管及管铸件产品贡献毛利15.39亿元，同比增长49.49%，毛利占比进一步提升至54.03%。
　　投资建议：公司球磨铸管业务托底业绩，储能业务或为公司提供成长空间。除主业外，公司以全钒液流储能关键材料为方向，以天津研究院为技术研发平台，结合电池生产基地和武安电解液生产基地，形成协同研发能力，未来有望成为公司新的发展方向。我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润为10.41亿元、11.08亿元、12.43亿元，同比增长9.9%、6.4%、12.2%。公司近三年以来平均PB水平为0.61倍，考虑到公司作为市场球墨铸铁管龙头企业，在未来水利、水网建设中具备优势，给予公司一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年0.8倍PB，对应目标价5.5元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：铸管下游需求恢复不及预期，上游原材料价格大幅波动，产业政策执行不及预期。

　　事件：公司发布2026年一季报。公司一季度实现营业收入98.76亿元，同比增长17.93%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润1.97亿元，同比增长43.94%；基本每股收益0.0498元，同比增长44.35%。
　　一季度扣非净利大增，毛利率小幅走弱。公司2026Q1实现归母净利1.97亿元，同比增长43.94%，环比下降20.38%，实现扣非归母净利1.69亿元，同比增长40.5%，环比增长61.16%；2026Q1钢价同比下降4.45%，铁矿石价格同比增长3.15%，主焦煤价格同比上涨12.48%，公司归母净利同比仍实现增长，展现出公司稳健盈利能力。公司2025Q2-2026Q1逐季销售毛利率分别为8.10%、7.89%、7.20%、6.38%，逐季销售净利率分别为3.05%、3.33%、2.64%、2.16%，随着供需格局边际改善，政策调控发力，成本端压力缓解，预计2026年我国钢铁行业盈利能力将继续修复，“十五五”时期将建设改造地下管网超过70万公里，高标准农田建设、雨污分流领域需求处于增长阶段，产品差异化、服务多样化特征明显，铸管行业仍面临发展较多机遇，行业及公司盈利有望继续改善。
　　产能具备挖潜空间，产品结构同步改善。2025年公司金属产品销量达到949.2万吨，同比增长5.4%，后续公司仍具备产能挖潜空间。公司产品结构同步改善，2025年优特钢销量同比增加24.86%，同时铸管公开市场中标率同比提升1.6个百分点，销量同比增长5.88%，2026年一季度公司铸管产品在铸管公开市场的招标占比同比提升，钢材产品成本和盈利能力保持行业前列；埃及25万吨球墨铸铁管项目开创“技术输出+本地化运营”新模式，推动沿线国家产能合作，全年铸管出口量增长7.8%，保持国内出口铸管量的70%份额。储能方面，公司与中国科学院大连化学物理研究所签署战略合作协议，加入了中央企业新型储能创新联合体并成立了新兴绿色能源与新材料天津研究院，新兴储能板块将以全钒液流电池作为储能电池的战略突破口，推动全钒液流电池全产业链建设。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司2026年~2028年实现归母净利分别为11.8亿元、13.7亿元、15.5亿元，对应PE为14.8、12.8、11.3倍，公司历史估值区间为0.33倍到1.86倍重置成本，当前估值为0.45倍左右，公司为国内球墨铸管行业龙头，持续受益于钢铁行业产能利用率恢复、城市管网改造及水利设施建设，其盈利有望继续向上回归，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：上游原料价格大幅上涨，钢材需求不及预期，新业务发展存在不确定性。

　　26年一季度，公司实现营业收入98.76亿元（yoy+17.93%），归母净利润1.97亿元（yoy+43.94%），扣非归母净利润1.69亿元（yoy+40.50%）。业绩高增主要受益于营收规模扩张及期间费用率下行，但毛利率同比下滑反映钢材价格下行压力。展望后市，随着铸管水网建设需求释放及埃及项目推进，业绩有望持续改善。维持"增持"评级。
　　26Q1毛利率同比下滑，期间费用率下行释放利润弹性
　　毛利率同比下降1.24pct至6.37%，主要受钢材价格下行及原燃料成本波动影响，一季度钢铁行业呈现"高成本、低需求、薄利润"特征。期间费用率同比下降1.02pct至3.72%，其中销售费用0.79亿元（yoy-4.43%），管理费用1.50亿元（yoy-8.80%），研发费用0.73亿元（yoy-24.07%），财务费用0.65亿元（yoy+23.31%），财务费用上升主要与利息收入减少有关。非经常性损益0.28亿元，占归母净利润14.21%，主要系处置联新地产股权收益及政府补助。剔除后扣非净利润同比+40.50%，反映主营业务盈利改善。
　　26Q1铸管招标占比提升，钢材盈利保持行业前列
　　2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入98.76亿元（yoy+17.93%），归母净利润1.97亿元（yoy+43.94%），扣非归母净利润1.69亿元（yoy+40.50%）。据公司披露及行业数据，一季度全国粗钢产量同比下降4.6%，钢材产量同比下降1.7%，行业盈利面收窄。铸管行业受项目资金及春节影响，1-2月发运量较低，3月随水网建设等政策红利释放需求逐步改善。公司铸管产品在公开市场招标占比同比提升，钢材产品成本和盈利能力保持行业前列，主要经营指标实现同比大幅改善。
　　产品结构优化与国际化并进，埃及项目及数字化转型有望释放长期增量
　　面向2026年，公司持续推进产品结构优化与国际化布局，致力于提升高附加值产品占比及海外市场拓展。业务层面，公司聚焦铸管综合竞争力提升与钢铁差异化产品体系打造，优特钢及高端铸管产品有望加速放量。国际化层面，一体化推动埃及新兴达产达效，出口销量增长有望持续贡献增量。随着水网建设政策红利释放及高附加值产品占比提升，公司业绩有望逐季改善。
　　维持“增持”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，预测2026-2028年EPS分别为0.28/0.32/0.40元；BVPS分别为6.86/7.11/7.43元。可比公司2026年PB一致预期为0.64X，我们延续溢价率，给予公司2026年0.74XPB，对应目标价5.08元。（前值5.21元，基于2026年PB估值0.76X）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：1.钢铁行业供需格局恶化，钢材价格超预期下行；2.铸管下游基建投资不及预期，需求释放节奏放缓；3.原燃料价格大幅波动，成本端压力上升；4.国际化项目推进不及预期，海外产能释放延迟。

According to its 2025 annual results,Xinxing Pipes(Xinxing)achieved revenue of RMB37.02bn(+2.29%YoY)and an attributable net profit of RMB947mn(+465.67%YoY),exceeding our expectation of RMB730mn,mainly due to alarger-than-we-expected decline in raw material costs.We believe the company's earnings growth was primarily driven by significant cost reductions and effective expense control.Looking ahead,the company is well positioned to benefit from arecovery in the steel industry's business environment.This,coupled with ongoing optimization of its product mix,makes us believe it should further enhance profitability.We maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Optimized product mix coupled with stringent cost control
In 2025,Xinxing continued to optimize its revenue structure,shifting its production and sales focus to ductile iron pipes and special steel.Specifically,ductile iron pipe&casting product sales/production reached 3.27/3.20mn tonnes(+5.45/+4.50%YoY),while special steel sales/production reached 3.09/2.86mn tonnes(+24.86/+20.25%YoY).On the cost side,according to Xinxing’s annual report,the average Platts iron ore index for 2025 fell by USD6.7/tonne YoY,the average coking coal price declined by over 25%YoY,and the China steel price index dropped 9.1%YoY.The cost reductions led to asignificant improvement in profitability,with the company’s gross margin for 2025 rising 2.29pp YoY to 7.69%.The full-year overall expense ratio was 4.38%,down 0.25pp YoY,reflecting effective cost control.Additionally,the company prioritized shareholder returns,proposing acash dividend of RMB0.75 per 10 shares(tax inclusive)for 2025.
Steel:industry earnings upside to rise amid rising constraints
According to Huatai Metals team’s report Carbon Reduction Bodes Well for Steel Sector Earnings Upside(dated 9March 2026),some steel companies received voluntary emission reduction notices during the Two Sessions,which in our view indicates the dual-carbon policy has entered the implementation phase,with supply discipline potentially becoming acore driver of industry profit recovery.This suggests upside potential for the steel sector's earnings in 2026.Current industry sentiment remains at historically low levels.Coupled with long-term declines in crude steel output and continued optimization of downstream demand structure,China’s steel industry is entering arecovery cycle characterized by supply contraction,policy-driven reforms,and expanding profit margins.Hence,we expect Xinxing to demonstrate superior profit resilience than industry average,underpinned by higher proportion of premium products and effective cost control.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
Considering the relatively loose S/D dynamics of iron ore and other raw materials,coupled with the company's ongoing optimization of its product mix to enhance profitability,we lower our iron ore cost and product price assumptions while raising ductile pipe and special steel production forecasts.We estimate 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.28/0.32/0.40,representing upward revisions of 16.67/23.08%for 2026/2027,with BVPS at RMB6.86/7.11/7.43.Given the rapid growth in the company's special steel sales volume and its leading position in the ductile pipe segment,we replace Xinyu Iron&Steel(which has ahigher proportion of plate products)with Baoshan Iron&Steel as acomparable company.The average 2026E PB for comparable companies on iFind consensus is 0.66x.Factoring in the strong momentum in water conservancy investment benefiting ductile pipe demand,we assign Xinxing a2026E PB of 0.76x,for atarget price of RMB5.21(previous:RMB4.66,based on 0.69x 2026E PB).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:disappointing downstream demand;significant volatility in raw-material prices;commissioning of new capacities missing our estimates.