Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering persistently weak domestic demand, slower-than-expected implementation of supply-side policies such as over-production control, and intensified price competition at the current stage, we lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts to net loss of RMB3,511mn/net loss of RMB986mn/net profit of RMB1,202mn from our previous net profit estimates of RMB70/450/1,180mn. We project 2026 BVPS of RMB10.09, down from our previous estimate of RMB10.60. Considering that the company’s interim earnings remained under pressure, we value the stock at 0.43x 2026E PB, a 45% discount to its average PB since 4Q21. Our target price is RMB4.31 (previous: RMB5.41, based on 0.51x 2026E PB, a 36% discount to its average PB since 4Q21). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: slower-than-expected implementation and execution of supply-side policies, sharper-than-expected decline in cement demand, intensified competition, and asset/credit impairments.

　　天山股份发布2026年中报：26H1实现营业收入301.60亿元，同比下降16.18%；归母净利润-31.93亿元，同比增亏22.69亿元；扣非归母净利润-35.50亿元，同比增亏24.64亿元。Q2单季实现营业收入178.25亿元，同比下降15.25%；归母净利润-16.98亿元，同比由盈转亏。公司上半年归母净利落在预告区间（-33.6至-28.0亿元）内。我们认为公司作为全国性布局完善的水泥龙头，成本持续优化，在计提大额减值后有望轻装上阵，水泥行业虽然短期需求承压，但双碳+“反内卷”导向下，中长期产业政策对行业供给侧的约束有望进一步趋严，维持“增持”评级。
　　水泥量稳价降，海外业务稳步拓展
　　1）水泥及熟料业务实现收入188.48亿元，同比下降17.06%，毛利率8.56%，同比下降10.67pct。公司水泥熟料销量约0.9亿吨，同比基本持平，好于全国上半年水泥产量6.0%的降幅，预计公司份额止降企稳。2）我们测算1H26水泥及熟料吨均价、吨成本和吨毛利分别约为209、192和18元，分别同比下降约42/11/30元。均价下降幅度较大，主要受国内下游基建地产需求较弱、市场价格竞争加剧的影响，拖累吨毛利表现。虽然煤炭及原材料价格下降、生产技术优化和采购降本推动成本改善，但尚不足以对冲价格下跌。3）商混/骨料业务分别实现收入84.04/19.17亿元，同比分别下降17.29%/4.07%，毛利率分别为14.50%/26.85%，同比分别提升0.82pct/下降0.26pct，商混、骨料业务整体盈利能力相对稳定。4）26H1海外公司销售水泥熟料154万吨，同比增长57%，营业收入同比增长70%至9.86亿元，毛利率同比+6.8pct至46.7%。
　　信用减值计提拖累盈利
　　1）26H1公司销售、管理、研发及财务费用分别为5.70、33.86、2.55、14.67亿元，同比-17.8%、+0.5%、-58.7%、-11.8%，期间费用合计同比下降10.5%，反映费用端继续压缩，但期间费用率同比提升1.20pct至18.83%，主要是分母端收入下降影响。2）26H1公司计提信用减值损失6.82亿元，同比增加4.50亿元，主要受商混板块应收账款结构变化及长账龄款项增加影响，进一步拖累利润。3）26H1公司实现资产处置收益3.21亿元，同比增加3.36亿元，一定程度上对冲了主业经营下行和减值的影响。
　　资本开支继续收缩
　　1）26H1公司经营活动现金流净额为-9.30亿元，同比减少28.73亿元、由正转负，主要受盈利下降、经营活动现金流入减少影响；2）26H1公司购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金为22.14亿元，同比下降38.2%，资本开支继续收缩。3）26年二季度末公司资产负债率为68.54%，较2025年末提升1.71pct，负债率小幅上升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　基于国内需求持续偏弱，超产治理等供给侧政策落地慢于预期，行业价格竞争阶段性加剧，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润预测至-35/-10/12亿元（前值分别为0.7/4.5/11.8亿元），预计公司26年BVPS为10.09元（前值10.60元）。考虑公司中期业绩仍然承压，我们给予0.43x26年PB，较公司21Q4以来平均PB折价45%，下调目标价至4.31元（前目标价5.41元，基于0.51x26年PB，较公司21Q4以来平均PB折价36%），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：供给侧政策落地和执行不及预期，水泥需求下降超预期，行业竞争加剧的风险，资产、信用减值风险。

Tianshan Material's(Tianshan)1Q26 revenue was RMB12,334mn(-17.48%YoY),and attributable net profit(NP)was RMB-1,495mn(+0.08%YoY).As acement leader with awell-established nationwide presence,Tianshan can look forward to afresh start now that it has charged substantial impairment provisions,in our view.Although short-term cement demand is under pressure,guided by carbon peaking&neutrality goals and efforts to curb excess competition,medium-/long-term industrial policies could enhance supply discipline.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Cement business climate continued bottoming
1)In 1Q26,revenue fell by 17.5%YoY,which we attribute mainly to nationwide cement demand declines and depressed prices.In 1Q26,the external sales volume of cement clinker was 34.96mn tonnes(-7.3%YoY).The decline was largely in line with the 7.1%decline in national cement output,reflecting that the company's market share has stabilized.In addition,sales volume of commercial concrete in 1Q26 was 13.35mn cbm(-3.9%YoY),and the external sales volume of aggregates was 22.36mn tonnes(+9.3%YoY).2)For 1Q26,GPM was 10.6%(-3.1pp YoY,-6.7pp QoQ),mainly dented by the YoY drop in prices of products such as cement.However,the company focused on refined management and cost control.The costs of cement clinker,commercial concrete,and aggregates all dropped to varying degrees YoY.
Overall expense ratio rose,NP remained sluggish
1)In 1Q26,overall expense ratio climbed by 2.0pp YoY to 23.7%;sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios changed by-0.4/+2.6/-0.8/+0.5pp YoY(associated with revenue contraction).2)For 1Q26,NPM was-13.3%(-2.1ppYoY).In this quarter,income from selling landbanks and production facilities climbed by RMB368mn YoY to RMB374mn,offsetting operational profitability pressure.
Capex declines significantly
1)For 1Q26,net operating cash flow was-RMB3.33bn,with an additional outflow of RMB1.17bn YoY,mainly as cash received from the sale of goods and provision of services fell YoY.2)For 1Q26,cash paid for acquiring fixed assets,intangible assets,and other long-term assets was RMB1.12bn(-44.8%YoY),indicating that capex has fallen sharply YoY.3)As of the end of 1Q26,the asset-liability ratio was 68.09%,up by 1.26pp compared to the end of 2025.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our earnings forecasts and project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB74/448/1,179mn.We estimate 2026 BVPS of RMB10.6,and value the stock at 0.51x 2026E PB,a 36%discount to its average PB multiple since 4Q21,to account for unchanged target PB.Our target price is unchanged at RMB5.41.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Weaker execution of off-peak production than we expect,less effective control over cement&clinker over-production than we expect,large-amount asset/credit impairments exceeding our estimates.

　　天山股份发布2026年一季报，26Q1实现营收123.34亿元（yoy-17.48%），归母净利-14.95亿元（yoy+0.08%）。我们认为公司作为全国性布局完善的水泥龙头，在计提大额减值后有望轻装上阵，水泥行业虽然短期需求承压，但双碳+“反内卷”导向下，中长期产业政策对行业供给侧的约束有望进一步趋严，维持“增持”评级。
　　水泥景气继续筑底，但份额企稳、成本端优化
　　1）26Q1公司收入同比-17.5%，预计主要受全国水泥需求下行、价格低位运行的影响。Q1公司外销水泥熟料3496万吨，同比-7.3%，降幅基本与全国水泥产量7.1%的降幅相当，反映公司份额止降企稳。此外公司Q1销售商品混凝土1,335万方，同比-3.9%；外销骨料2,236万吨，同比+9.3%。
　　2）26Q1公司毛利率为10.6%，同比下降3.1pct，环比下降6.7pct，预计主要是水泥等产品价格同比下降的影响，但公司紧抓管理精细，降本控费，水泥熟料、商品混凝土及骨料成本同比均有不同程度下降。
　　期间费用率有所上升，多重因素影响下净利润水平仍承压
　　1）26Q1单季期间费用率同比提升2.0pct至23.7%，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比-0.4/+2.6/-0.8/+0.5pct，预计主要是分母端收入规模下滑所致。2）公司26Q1单季净利率为-13.3%，同比下降2.1pct，主要因本期土地收储、产能出让带来的处置损益增加，导致Q1资产处置收益同比增加3.68亿元至3.74亿元，对冲了经营端盈利压力。
　　资本开支力度明显下降
　　1）26Q1公司实现经营活动净现金流-33.3亿元，同比多流出11.7亿元，主要受销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金同比下降影响。2）26Q1公司购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金为11.2亿元，同比-44.8%，资本开支力度同比明显下降。3）截至26Q1末，公司资产负债率为68.09%，较2025年末提升1.26pct。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为0.7/4.5/11.8亿元。我们预计公司26年BVPS为10.6元，继续给予0.51x26年PB（较公司21Q4以来平均PB折价36%），维持目标价5.41元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：错峰生产执行效果偏弱，水泥熟料超产治理效果低于预期，大额信用/资产减值超预期的风险。