Zheshang Development Group (Zheshang) released its 1H26 results: revenue was RMB125.90bn (+17.49% YoY), attributable NP was RMB252mn (+21.86% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB132mn (turning profitable from a loss of RMB66.96mn in 1H25). In 2Q26, revenue was RMB69.82bn (+23.71% YoY, +24.48% QoQ), attributable NP was RMB65.23mn (+348.39% YoY, -65.12% QoQ), and recurring NP was -RMB42.51mn (narrowing from a loss of RMB102mn in 2Q25). Attributable NP came in above our previous expectation (RMB20mn), due to higher gains from commodity futures position closures and mark-to-market fluctuations. On the operational front, gross profit and gross margin of the supply chain integrated services business both recovered YoY. Looking ahead, given that commodity demand is likely to stabilize and the company continues to optimize its business layout, we are optimistic about sustained earnings recovery in its core business and upgrade from OVERWEIGHT to BUY.
We maintain our 2026-2028E attributable NP forecasts of RMB510/725/824mn (3Y CAGR of 54.64%), implying EPS of RMB0.72/1.02/1.16. We apply a 10.5x 2026E PE (a 15% discount to the comparable companies' 2026E average PE of 12.3x on Wind consensus, with the discount reflecting the company's still-loss-making recurring NP in 2Q26, volatility in basis gains, and lingering credit risk and working capital occupation pressure related to the Delong Group; previous: 10.0x 2026E PE), arriving at a target price of RMB7.53 (previous: RMB7.19). With the share price pullback, the expected return has expanded, and we upgrade from OVERWEIGHT to BUY.

　　浙商中拓发布半年报，2026年H1实现营收1259.04亿元（yoy+17.49%），归母净利2.52亿元（yoy+21.86%），扣非净利1.32亿元（同比扭亏为盈，1H25为-6695.93万元）。其中Q2实现营收698.18亿元（yoy+23.71%，qoq+24.48%），归母净利6522.79万元（yoy+348.39%，qoq-65.12%），扣非净利为-4250.98万元（同比减亏，2Q25为-1.02亿元）。归母净利高于我们此前预期（2000万元），主因商品期货等平仓及浮动盈亏贡献较高。经营层面，供应链集成服务毛利及毛利率均同比修复。往后展望，考虑到大宗商品需求或企稳，公司持续优化业务布局，我们看好公司主业盈利持续修复，上调至“买入”。
　　传统业务：黑色毛利率修复，能化与有色业务扩张
　　1H26，黑色/有色/能源化工供应链分别实现营业收入468.52/121.84/533.33亿元，同比-22.1%/+1,931.4%/+74.1%；毛利分别为5.20/1.51/8.58亿元，同比+206.4%/+1,736.1%/+181.5%；毛利率分别同比+0.83/-0.13/+0.61pct至1.11%/1.24%/1.61%。1）在建筑用钢需求偏弱、商品价格承压的背景下，黑色业务收入同比下降；受1H25低基数及现货单位价差修复等因素影响，毛利率同比提升。2）有色业务积极拓展铜、铝等品种，收入与毛利均在低基数上大幅增长。3）能化业务继续拓展油品、煤炭、橡胶等境内外业务，其中动力煤/橡胶实物量分别同比+60.2%/+16.2%，带动收入与毛利双增。
　　新业务：农产品扩量明显，新能源由盈转亏
　　1H26，再生资源/新能源/农产品供应链分别实现营业收入10.33/67.79/51.63亿元，同比-82.6%/+0.3%/+244.5%；毛利分别为0.30/-0.63/0.34亿元，同比-57.8%/由盈转亏/-32.3%；毛利率分别同比+1.71/-2.88/-2.73pct至2.92%/-0.92%/0.67%。新业务中：1）再生资源业务继续受政策性因素影响，经营规模收缩；2）新能源业务营业成本增速高于收入，毛利转负；3）农产品业务受油脂类、农副产品等品种拓展带动，实物量同比+313.5%、收入快速增长。
　　持续提升大宗资产配置能力，完善全球化布局
　　1H26公司计提资产及信用减值3.35亿元，减少归母净利润2.85亿元，信用风险逐步出清。“十五五”开局，公司由多品类规模扩张进一步转向大宗资产配置能力建设。在“4+X”品类布局基础上，1H26公司进一步明确“关键资源能源+自主可控物流+未来终端场景”核心战略，并围绕客商、盈利、交易、物流和投资模式进行系统优化。全球化是转型的重要抓手：1H26国际业务收入535.11亿元，同比+47.5%，占总收入42.5%；国际业务实物量同比+48.6%，东南亚贡献国际收入的一半以上。我们看好公司增长逻辑转向资源、渠道、物流和交易能力协同。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测5.10/7.25/8.24亿元（三年复合增速为54.64%），对应EPS为0.72/1.02/1.16元。给予26年10.5xPE（较可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均PE为12.3x折价15%，估值折价主因公司2Q26扣非归母净利润仍亏损、基差收益存在波动，且德龙系相关信用风险及营运资金占用压力仍存；前值10.0x26EPE），对应目标价7.53元（前值7.19元），股价回落后预期回报空间扩大，上调至“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗品价格剧烈波动；地缘政治风险；供应链业务操作风险。

Zheshang Zhongtuo’s 2025 and 1Q26 results: For 2025, revenue came in at RMB235.5bn (+16.6% YoY), with attributable net profit of RMB223mn (-39.6% YoY). For 4Q25, revenue was RMB64.88bn (+18.6% YoY, +2.2% QoQ), and attributable net profit reached RMB32.69mn (+377.2% YoY, +292.9% QoQ). In 1Q26, revenue was RMB56.09bn (+10.6% YoY), with attributable net profit of RMB187mn (-2.8% YoY, +472.05% QoQ). The 2025 attributable net profit was in line with the profit alert. The YoY decline was mainly due to: 1) weak industry demand and intense competition — while overall revenue and volumes handled expanded, gross margins generally contracted across categories; 2) combined net investment income and fair value changes fell 15.3% YoY to RMB404mn, reflecting volatility in futures hedging-related gains. That said, attributable net profit improved sequentially in 4Q25 and 1Q26. Looking into 2026, amid marginal improvement in macro demand, we believe the company should deliver steady revenue growth and a modest recovery in gross margin, with overall profitability rebounding from 2025 levels. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We cut our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB510/725mn (-40%/-32% vs our prior estimates) and introduce a 2028 forecast of RMB824mn, implying EPS of RMB0.72/1.02/1.16. Key assumption changes: 1) The commodity supply chain industry remains in a bottoming-out phase with still-intense competition, and the company is undergoing internal adjustments to product categories and teams, which temporarily weighed on profitability — we therefore lower our gross margin assumptions. 2) Volumes handled and revenue came in above our expectations in 2025; we expect revenue to continue growing steadily in 2026-2027, driven by category expansion, new team onboarding and internationalization, and raise our revenue forecasts. We apply a 10.0x 2026E PE (comparable companies' Wind consensus: 10.0x; previous: 10.0x, also reflecting the industry average), arriving at a target price of RMB7.19 (previous: RMB7.11). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　浙商中拓发布25年及1Q26业绩：1）2025年实现营收2355.02亿元（yoy+16.6%），归母净利2.23亿元（yoy-39.6%）。其中Q4实现营收648.80亿元（yoy+18.6%，qoq+2.2%），归母净利3268.92万元（yoy+377.2%，qoq+292.9%）。2）1Q26实现营业收入560.86亿元（yoy+10.6%），归母净利1.87亿元（yoy-2.8%,qoq+472.05%）。25年归母净利符合业绩预告，归母净利同比下滑主因：1）行业需求偏弱，行业竞争依然激烈，公司整体营收及实物量规模扩张，但各品类毛利率普遍下滑；2）投资净收益及公允价值变动损益合计同比下滑15.3%至4.04亿元，期货套保相关收益存在波动。但4Q25及1Q26归母净利逐季改善，展望26年，在宏观需求边际改善的背景下，公司有望实现收入稳健增长、毛利率小幅回升，整体盈利能力较2025年修复，维持“增持”。
　　传统业务：毛利有降有升，业务拓展带动营收增长
　　25年，黑色/有色/能化供应链分别实现营收1220.15亿/70.56亿/740.02元，同比+3.1%/-21.2%/+55.8%；毛利11.06亿/-0.73亿/5.22亿元，同比+37.7%/转亏/-33.9%；毛利率分别同比+0.23/-1.75/-0.96pct。1）黑色业务引入新团队、发展新业务，黑色板块经营实物量同比增长32.28%，营收与毛利水平同步提升。2）有色业务实物量同比增长15.39%，但现货毛利水平承压。3）能化：公司重点拓展油品、橡胶等能源化工业务，实物量同比增长66.74%，带动营收同比大幅增长，但现货端毛利水平下降。
　　新业务：新能源与农产品供应链毛利增长亮眼
　　25年，再生资源供应链/新能源/农产品供应链分别实现营收114.64亿/129.71亿/66.79亿元，分别同比-19.0%/+26.0%/+962.3%；毛利1.37亿/3.43亿/0.79亿元，分别同比-44.1%/+48.9%/+784.7%，毛利率分别同比-0.53/+0.40/-0.24pct。新业务中：再生资源供应链积极应对政策变化，深化业务模式转型，营收与毛利同比下滑。新能源与农产品供应链毛利增长亮眼，新能源业务借助贸易与场景双轮驱动，打造“中拓芯享”、“中拓光盈”两大品牌，农产品供应链得益于新增油脂类、农副产品等业务，毛利同比高增。
　　“十五五”开局之年，业务结构优化与全球化拓展并进
　　26年是“十五五”规划开局之年，公司聚焦“4+X”产业布局，围绕钢铁、煤炭、油气、光伏、储能、不锈钢、橡胶、油脂油料等“十大供应链”，优化业务布局。同时，公司持续推进全球化布局，25年国际业务营收同比增长32.5%至823亿元，占比35%。公司已覆盖89个国家和地区，并在印尼获得5家矿山企业镍矿包销权。此外，公司已完成汽车板块战略性退出，集中资源加大优势团队培育，共7个团队达到百亿级体量。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润至5.10亿/7.25亿元（较前值分别-40%/-32%），新增28年归母净利预测至8.24亿元，对应EPS为0.72元、1.02元、1.16元。核心假设变动：1）考虑到大宗供应链行业仍处在筑底阶段，竞争依然激烈，且公司处在内部品类和团队优化调整阶段，阶段性扰动盈利水平，我们下调毛利率假设。2）25年实物量增长、营收规模高于预期，预计26-27年在品类扩张、新团队引入、国际化推进下营收规模仍将稳定增长，上调营收预期。给予10.0x26EPE（可比公司Wind一致预期为10.0x，前值10.0x，本次与前次均为行业平均估值），目标价为7.19元（前值7.11元），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：大宗品价格剧烈波动；地缘政治风险；供应链业务操作风险。