Yuexiu Capital has reported 2025 revenue of RMB7.84bn,with the YoY decline mainly reflecting an accounting reclassification in the futures business,while adjusted revenue rose by 4%YoY.The attributable NP reached RMB3.52bn,up by 53%YoY,in line with the earlier guidance in the profit alert for 50%-60%YoY growth.In 4Q25,attributable NP arrived at RMB509mn,down by 11%YoY and 65%QoQ.The sharp QoQ decline mainly reflected ahigh base in 3Q25,when long-term equity investments generated substantial non-operating income and lifted net profit.The company’s green transformation continued to deepen,while AMC operations improved.In January,the company also announced aplan to increase its holdings of Beijing Enterprises H-shares in the secondary market and account for investment income under the equity method.We expect the non-operating income contribution to continue.Maintain BUY.
New energy business continued to gain traction
Yuexiu Financial Leasing continued to promote its business transformation and structural adjustment,with amore diverse product system.Annual new deployment reached RMB28.9bn,up by 16%YoY.Of this amount,RMB12.7bn was deployed to new energy sectors such as PV,wind power,and energy storage,while wind power deployment surged by 320%.In new energy operations,annual new deployment reached RMB4.77bn.By year-end,installed capacity of household distributed PV stations had reached 11.87GW.Total annual power generation from PV,wind,and other new energy projects reached 13.665bn kWh,becoming akey driver of earnings growth(8.920bn kWh in 2024).At the same time,the company continued to improve its risk-management quality.By year-end,the non-performing ratio of credit-risk assets in the financial leasing business was 0.62%,which remained at alow level.
Equity investments contributed earnings upside
Yuexiu Industrial Investment delivered strong returns from equity investments,with the full-year net profit reaching RMB539mn,up by 701%YoY.In 2025,Yuexiu Industrial Fund deployed RMB7.54bn of new investment,including RMB2.36bn into equity assets(only RMB683mn in 2024),and RMB5.18bn into fixed-income assets.By year-end,Yuexiu Industrial Investment held RMB8.17bn of equity assets,up by 20%from the start of the year.It built deeper exposure to hard-tech sectors while increasing allocation to high-dividend assets.Fixed-income assets reached RMB10.62bn,up by 36%from the start of the year.In 2025,the company increased its holdings in the H-shares of Suntien Green Energy,Yuexiu Property,and Beijing Enterprises,with acombined investment of RMB2.3bn,and accounted for them under the equity method.Because the investment cost was lower than the fair value of the investees’identifiable attributable net assets at the time of investment,this generated RMB2.8bn of non-operating income.In January,the company announced that it planned to continue increasing its holdings of Beijing Enterprises-H in the secondary market,and we expect the non-operating income contribution to continue.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the company’s planned further increase in holdings of Beijing Enterprises H-shares,we moderately raise our non-operating income assumption.We also moderately cut other business revenue to reflect the accounting reclassification in the futures business(we lower cost for other business accordingly,with limited impact on profit).We forecast EPS of RMB0.76,RMB0.87,and RMB1.00 for 2026,2027,and 2028,versus our previous forecasts of RMB0.73 and RMB0.80 for 2026 and 2027,with upward revisions of 4%and 9%.The average valuation for comparable companies is 13.90x 2026E PE on Wind consensus(previously 16.52x 2025E PE).Given the company’s clear progress in green transformation and the marked improvement in AMC operations,we assign apremium valuation of 15x 2026E PE.Maintain BUY,with atarget price of RMB11.40(previously RMB11.22,on 17x 2025E PE).
Risks:policy uncertainty;market volatility.

　　事件：4月8日，越秀资本公布2025年报。2025公司实现营业总收入78.4亿元/yoy+4.1%，归母净利润35.2亿元/yoy+53.4%，扣非归母净利润18.1亿元/yoy+24.2%，2025年ROE11.26%/yoy+3.41pct。
　　新能源业务高增，支撑主营业务稳健增长。主营业务分行业看，公司2025年分别实现新能源、融资租赁、不良资产管理、投资管理业务收入46.4、25.6、3.8、1.9亿元，分别同比+51%、-21%、-58%、+9.7%，占营业总收入比重分别为59%、33%、4.9%、2.5%。新能源运营业务方面，公司将“双碳”战略与乡村振兴有机结合，深化绿色转型，全年共完成投放47.7亿元，实现光伏、风电等新能源发电总量136.65亿度/yoy+53.2%，是公司业绩增长的关键动能。融资租赁业务方面，公司推进业务转型和结构调整，全年完成投放289.06亿元，其中新能源方向投放126.89亿元，普惠租赁业务新增投放80.46亿元/yoy+36%，主要得益于新能源商用车突破上量，工程机械业务深化与核心厂商战略合作。总体来看，越秀租赁2025年末总资产980亿元/yoy+2.0%，规模稳健。
　　部分投资确认营业外收入增厚公司利润，计提减值损失拖累利润。2025年公司实现营业外收入28.2亿元（主要系投资形成），较2024年增加19.4亿元，显著增厚了公司利润。具体来看，公司子公司广州资产、越秀产业投资分别于2025年度增持北京控股、新天绿色能源股权，并派出董事施加重大影响，同时广州资产还增持了公司联营企业越秀地产股权，公司评估上述投资的购买日可辨认净资产价值后，将其与初始投资成本的差额确认了营业外收入。2025年公司计提信用减值损失16.5亿，较2024年增加12.8亿，拖累公司利润表现。其中，债权投资减值损失为主要来源，2025年计提15.4亿，较2024年增加13.0亿，预计主要来自于公司对AMC业务相关资产进行了全面清查和减值测试。
　　权益法核算下，中信证券业绩增长驱动公司投资收益增长。2025年资本市场回暖，中信证券实现归母净利润301亿元/yoy+38.6%，越秀资本直接、间接合计持有中信证券股票12.7亿股，占中信证券总股本8.54%，全年确认投资收益25.2亿元/yoy+35.9%。整体来看，公司全年累计实现投资收益44.7亿/yoy+19.7%。
　　投资分析意见：公司绿色转型升级稳步推进，资本市场活跃下投资业务回暖，全年业绩高增，维持“强烈推荐”评级。预计26-28E越秀资本归母净利润38.4亿元、42.8亿元、49.4亿元，同比+9%、+12%、+15%;当前收盘价对应26-28E动态PB为1.15x、1.07x、0.98x，对应26-28E动态PE为10.7x、9.6x、8.3x。
　　风险提示：经济下行压力增大；子公司经营不达预期；政策变动风险。

　　公司发布2025年年报，全年实现营业总收入78.43亿元，同比下降主因期货业务会计口径调整，调整后实际同比+4%，归母净利润35.19亿元，同比+53%，符合预期（业绩预告同比增长50%~60%）。Q4单季度归母净利润5.09亿元，同比-11%，环比-65%，环比下降较多主要是Q3长期股权投资产生的营业外收入较高，拉高净利润基数。公司绿色转型持续深化、AMC经营改善。同时1月公告拟在二级市场增持北京控股港股股票，并按照权益法核算投资收益，预计营业外收入贡献延续。维持买入评级。
　　新能源业务持续发力
　　越秀租赁业务转型和结构调整深入推进，产品体系更加多元，全年完成投放289亿元，同比+16%，其中，围绕光伏、风电、储能等新能源方向合计投放127亿元，风电业务投放增长320%。新能源运营业务方面，全年完成投放47.70亿元，期末户用分布式光伏电站装机规模11.87GW，全年光伏、风电等新能源发电总量136.65亿度，成为业绩增长的关键动能（2024年发电量89.20亿度）。同时公司持续提升风险管理质量，期末融资租赁业务信用风险资产不良率0.62%，保持较低水平。
　　权益投资贡献利润弹性
　　越秀产投权益投资取得良好收益，全年净利润5.39亿元，同比+701%。2025年越秀产业基金新增投放75.40亿元，其中权益类资产投资23.62亿元（2024年仅6.83亿元），固收类51.77亿元。越秀产业投资期末权益类资产规模81.66亿元，较年初+20%，深度布局硬科技等赛道，同时增配高股息资产；固收类资产规模106.18亿元，较年初+36%。2025年公司增配新天绿色能源、越秀地产和北京控股H股股票合计23亿元并按权益法核算，因投资成本小于投资时应享有被投资单位可辨认净资产公允价值产生28亿元营业外收入。1月公司公告拟在二级市场继续增持北京控股港股股票，预计营业外收入贡献延续。
　　AMC经营业绩改善
　　广州资产全年实现净利润1.41亿元，经营业绩扭亏转盈。全年新增收购不良资产规模240.25亿元，有力服务区域金融风险化解；加速资产盘活周转，处置不良资产规模551.25亿元；同时全力推进投行化转型，落地多单上市公司纾困、破产重整等投行业务。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司拟继续增持北京控股港股股票，适当上调营业外收入，同时考虑到期货业务会计口径调整，适当下调其他业务收入（同步调降其他业务成本，实际对利润表现影响有限）。我们预计2026-2028年EPS0.76/0.87/1.00元（26-27年前值0.73/0.80元，上调4%/9%）。可比公司2026EPEWind一致预期均值13.90x（前值25EPE16.52x），考虑公司绿色转型成效显著，AMC经营显著改善，给予2026年PE溢价至15x，维持买入评级，目标价11.40元（前值11.22元，对应2025EPE为17x）。
　　风险提示：政策风险，市场波动风险。