Yuexiu Capital has reported 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP of RMB3,594/2,810/2,267mn(-12.29/+80.35/+46.20%YoY).Revenue was impacted by phase-wise adjustments in new energy,financial leasing,and non-performing asset(NPA)businesses,while profit was driven by investment income and strategic equity holdings.Maintain BUY.
Asset scale expanded steadily
As of end-1H26,total assets/attributable net assets amounted to RMB228.4bn/35,095mn(+7.15/+5.64%from end-2025),with an asset-liability ratio of 77.05%,maintaining asound financial structure.The green financing balance was RMB49,290mn(+31%from end-2025),with financing resources continuing to concentrate on green transformation.Financing costs fell by 12bp from the beginning of the year,supporting leasing,new energy,and investment businesses with low-cost funding.In 1H26,new deployments in green,tech,and inclusive categories accounted for 77%of the total,aligning asset allocation with its industrial finance positioning.
Investment income boosted profit
For 1H26,investment income was RMB3,910mn(+98.73%YoY),becoming the core driver of profit growth;fair value changes posted aloss of RMB272mn,mainly affected by the transfer out of fair value gains/losses corresponding to equity project disposals,indicating profit growth stemmed more from investment realization and equity method recognition.The company directly and indirectly held atotal of 1,266mn shares in CITIC Securities,accounting for 8.54%of its total share capital,recognizing RMB1,939mn in investment income for 1H26,which made aprominent contribution to attributable NP.At the end of the period,Yuexiu Industrial Investment held RMB9,281mn in equity assets and RMB11,445mn in fixed-income assets,with portfolio layouts centered around new energy,AI and semiconductors,and biomedicine.In 1H26,11 portfolio companies completed IPOs,entering the project exit and gain realization phase for the investment management business.
Green business adjusts to build momentum
For 1H26,new energy revenue was RMB2,243mn(-7.42%YoY),accounting for 62.42%of total operating revenue and remaining the core revenue base.As of end-1H26,the company managed 17GW of installed capacity in residential distributed PV power plants,including 13.81GW of controlled capacity,with cumulative installed power plants reaching 600k units.Scale advantages have taken shape,and short-term revenue fluctuations should be evaluated alongside electricity prices,grid connection,and deployment pace.Financial leasing revenue was RMB1,181mn(-9.01%YoY)with agross margin of 39.34%(+2.09pp YoY),showing improved earnings quality despite revenue pressure;Yuexiu Leasing recorded an NP of RMB576mn for 1H26,remaining the main force in industrial finance.Futures revenue was RMB86mn(+31.39%YoY),benefiting from higher industry turnover;NPA management revenue was RMB68mn(-73.68%YoY),while Guangzhou AMC achieved an NP of RMB468mn,demonstrating strong profit performance.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering strong investment income realization and increased industrial investment contributions,we raise our investment income assumptions.We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB4,567/5,227/5,749mn(+30/+14/+10%YoY;+20/+20/+14%vs our previous estimates),with 2026E EPS at RMB0.91.Given the company's profit upside and clear industrial finance platform attributes,we value the stock at 12.00x 2026E PE,above its peers'average of 11.12x on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB10.92(previous:RMB11.40,based on 15.00x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:market volatility,new energy business deployment trailing our expectations.

　　越秀资本发布26H1报告，实现营业总收入35.94亿元，同比-12.29%；归母净利润28.10亿元，同比+80.35%；扣非归母净利润22.67亿元，同比+46.20%。收入端受新能源、融资租赁和不良资产业务阶段性调整影响，利润端由投资收益和战略持股贡献拉动，维持买入评级。
　　资产规模稳步增厚
　　截至26H1末，公司总资产2284亿元，较25年末+7.15%；归母净资产350.95亿元，较25年末+5.64%，资产负债率77.05%，财务结构保持稳健。公司绿色融资余额492.90亿元，较25年末+31%，融资资源继续向绿色转型方向集中；融资成本较年初下降12BP，低成本融资能力对租赁、新能源和投资业务形成支撑。上半年绿色、科技、普惠相关新增投放合计占比77%，资产配置与产业金融定位保持一致。
　　投资收益抬升利润
　　26H1投资收益39.10亿元，同比+98.73%，成为利润增长核心来源；公允价值变动收益-2.72亿元，主要受处置股权项目对应公允价值变动损益转出影响，利润增长更多来自投资兑现和权益法确认。公司直接、间接合计持有中信证券12.66亿股，占其总股本8.54%，上半年确认投资收益19.39亿元，对归母净利润贡献突出。越秀产业投资期末权益类资产规模92.81亿元，固定收益类资产规模114.45亿元，投资组合围绕新能源、人工智能与半导体、生物医药等方向布局；26H1期间11家被投企业实现IPO，投资管理业务进入项目退出和收益兑现阶段。
　　绿色业务调整蓄势
　　26H1新能源业务收入22.43亿元，同比-7.42%，占营业总收入62.42%，仍是收入基本盘；截至26H1末公司管理的户用分布式光伏电站装机容量17GW，其中控股装机13.81GW，累计安装电站60万座，规模优势已经形成，短期收入波动需要结合电价、并网和投放节奏判断。融资租赁业务收入11.81亿元，同比-9.01%，毛利率39.34%，同比提升2.09pct，收入承压下盈利质量有所改善；越秀租赁26H1净利润5.76亿元，仍是产业金融主力。期货业务收入0.86亿元，同比+31.39%，受益行业成交额提升；不良资产管理业务收入0.68亿元，同比-73.68%，广州资产实现净利润4.68亿元，利润表现较为优异。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司投资收益兑现较强，产业投资贡献提升，我们上调投资收入等相关假设，预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润45.67/52.27/57.49亿元，同比+30%/+14%/+10%（分别上调20%/20%/14%）；2026年EPS为0.91元。可比公司2026年Wind一致预期平均PE为11.12倍，考虑到公司利润弹性释放、产业金融平台属性清晰，给予公司2026年12.00倍PE，目标价10.92元（前值11.40元，对应2026年15.00倍PE），维持买入评级。
　　风险提示：市场波动风险；新能源业务投放不及预期。

Yuexiu Capital has reported 2025 revenue of RMB7.84bn,with the YoY decline mainly reflecting an accounting reclassification in the futures business,while adjusted revenue rose by 4%YoY.The attributable NP reached RMB3.52bn,up by 53%YoY,in line with the earlier guidance in the profit alert for 50%-60%YoY growth.In 4Q25,attributable NP arrived at RMB509mn,down by 11%YoY and 65%QoQ.The sharp QoQ decline mainly reflected ahigh base in 3Q25,when long-term equity investments generated substantial non-operating income and lifted net profit.The company’s green transformation continued to deepen,while AMC operations improved.In January,the company also announced aplan to increase its holdings of Beijing Enterprises H-shares in the secondary market and account for investment income under the equity method.We expect the non-operating income contribution to continue.Maintain BUY.
New energy business continued to gain traction
Yuexiu Financial Leasing continued to promote its business transformation and structural adjustment,with amore diverse product system.Annual new deployment reached RMB28.9bn,up by 16%YoY.Of this amount,RMB12.7bn was deployed to new energy sectors such as PV,wind power,and energy storage,while wind power deployment surged by 320%.In new energy operations,annual new deployment reached RMB4.77bn.By year-end,installed capacity of household distributed PV stations had reached 11.87GW.Total annual power generation from PV,wind,and other new energy projects reached 13.665bn kWh,becoming akey driver of earnings growth(8.920bn kWh in 2024).At the same time,the company continued to improve its risk-management quality.By year-end,the non-performing ratio of credit-risk assets in the financial leasing business was 0.62%,which remained at alow level.
Equity investments contributed earnings upside
Yuexiu Industrial Investment delivered strong returns from equity investments,with the full-year net profit reaching RMB539mn,up by 701%YoY.In 2025,Yuexiu Industrial Fund deployed RMB7.54bn of new investment,including RMB2.36bn into equity assets(only RMB683mn in 2024),and RMB5.18bn into fixed-income assets.By year-end,Yuexiu Industrial Investment held RMB8.17bn of equity assets,up by 20%from the start of the year.It built deeper exposure to hard-tech sectors while increasing allocation to high-dividend assets.Fixed-income assets reached RMB10.62bn,up by 36%from the start of the year.In 2025,the company increased its holdings in the H-shares of Suntien Green Energy,Yuexiu Property,and Beijing Enterprises,with acombined investment of RMB2.3bn,and accounted for them under the equity method.Because the investment cost was lower than the fair value of the investees’identifiable attributable net assets at the time of investment,this generated RMB2.8bn of non-operating income.In January,the company announced that it planned to continue increasing its holdings of Beijing Enterprises-H in the secondary market,and we expect the non-operating income contribution to continue.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the company’s planned further increase in holdings of Beijing Enterprises H-shares,we moderately raise our non-operating income assumption.We also moderately cut other business revenue to reflect the accounting reclassification in the futures business(we lower cost for other business accordingly,with limited impact on profit).We forecast EPS of RMB0.76,RMB0.87,and RMB1.00 for 2026,2027,and 2028,versus our previous forecasts of RMB0.73 and RMB0.80 for 2026 and 2027,with upward revisions of 4%and 9%.The average valuation for comparable companies is 13.90x 2026E PE on Wind consensus(previously 16.52x 2025E PE).Given the company’s clear progress in green transformation and the marked improvement in AMC operations,we assign apremium valuation of 15x 2026E PE.Maintain BUY,with atarget price of RMB11.40(previously RMB11.22,on 17x 2025E PE).
Risks:policy uncertainty;market volatility.