投资要点：
　　投资收益亮眼，2024Q3利润高增，连续增持提升信心。
　　（1）2024Q3营收7.56亿元，YOY+26.27%，QoQ+3.00%；归母净利润3.27亿元，YOY+451.29%，QoQ+581.80%，投资收益1.68亿元（2023Q3为-223万元），主要系公司参股公司无线传媒于2024Q3上市产生投资收益。2024Q3扣非归母净利润1.19亿元，YOY+6.89%，QoQ-9.47%，主业整体较为稳健。2024Q3净利率43.91%，同比+35.31pct；毛利率53.86%，同比-20.32pct；期间费用率为35.89%，同比-10.8pct，其中销售/管理/研发费用率同比-0.87-4.67/-5.20pct。
　　（2）2024Q1-Q3营收21.69亿元，YOY-5.20%；归母净利润4.75亿元，YOY-31.38%；扣非归母净利润3.21亿元，YOY-46.85%；投资收益1.46元，YoY-24%。
　　（3）完成股份增持计划。截至10月22日，公司已增持1086万股，约占总股本0.858%，增持金额9994万元，成交均价约为9.20元/股。
　　边锋网络坚持精品化运营，掼蛋取得突破。
　　2024H1，边锋网络营收9.99亿元，净利润2.57。边锋掼蛋游戏APP成为行业中首个DAU破百万的产品，2024H1边锋掼蛋新增注册用户超1300万。8月，边锋掼蛋线下活动中心举办第一期授牌，与12家优秀俱乐部达成合作，构建线上线下融合新生态。
　　浙江大数据交易中心完成并表，传播大脑进展顺利。
　　（1）数据交易：10月，浙江大数据交易中心完成股权重组，浙数文化占股50.2%，对浙江大数据交易中心实现并表，进一步加强资源整合，有望贡献业绩增量。
　　（2）传播大脑：8月，“传播大脑内容生成算法”通过备案，公司累计四项大模型及算法通过备案；10月，传播大脑获浙江省产业基金投资1.4亿元，推动业务不断拓展。
　　（3）IDC：富春云持续优化运行策略和节能效果，2024H1营收1.96亿元，YOY+4.79%，净利润0.43亿元，YOY+5.21%。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：我们看好公司数据交易业务、IDC业务、传播大脑业务等数字科技新业务的长期价值空间，有望打开公司业绩增长的第二条曲线。我们预计2024-2026年公司营业收入30.85/32.75/34.46亿元，归母净利润5.28/6.25/6.93亿元，对应PE为27.20/22.96/20.70X，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：游戏产品表现不及预期、市场竞争加剧风险、技术革新及核心人才流失的风险、技术研发/应用实践/数据交易推进不及预期风险、资本市场波动和投资不及预期风险等风险。

　　事件：
　　公司发布2024年三季报。
　　点评：
　　投资收益带动三季度利润高增，股东增持提振投资者信心
　　2024年前三季度，公司实现营业收入21.69亿元，同比下降5.20%，实现归母净利润4.75亿元，同比下滑31.38%，扣非归母净利润3.21亿元，同比下降46.85%。单季度看，24Q3公司实现营业收入7.56亿元，同比增长26.27%，实现归母净利润3.27亿元，同比增长451.29%，主要由于公司间接参股的无线传媒成功在创业板挂牌上市，使得Q3公司投资收益增加1.41亿元，单季度扣非归母净利润1.19亿元，同比增长6.89%。费用端看，前三季度，公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为16.22%/13.68%/11.48%，较去年同期-0.27/-1.17/-1.70pct。截至10.22，公司控股股东浙报传媒已累计增持公司股份1086万股，占公司总股本的0.86%，持续增强投资者信心。
　　游戏业务精品化运营，大数据交易中心并表有望贡献增量
　　分板块看，数字文化板块，子公司边锋网络坚持精品化运营，8月首期边锋掼蛋线下中心授牌仪式落幕，标志着重点产品边锋掼蛋在深耕线上市场的同时，开始积极拓展线下市场，构建线上线下融合新生态。数字科技板块，公司传播大脑进展顺利，下半年先后与视觉中国、腾讯云达成战略合作，10月，获得浙江产业资金投资1.4亿元，业务规模和服务范围不断拓展。8月传播大脑和城市大脑分别有1款算法通过网信办备案，公司已经累计有4款算法通过备案，持续加大AI技术在传媒及城市治理垂类的布局。10.21，浙江大数据交易中心完成股权重组，浙数文化持股50.2%，重组后，公司将对浙江大数据交易中心实现并表，进一步加强资源整合，助力浙江大数据交易中心业务的拓展和规模效益的提升，下半年，浙江大数据交易中心先后开通南湖、台州、中国数谷等专区，伴随行业发展，大数据交易中心有望在后续贡献业绩增量。
　　投资建议与盈利预测
　　浙数文化背靠浙江日报报业集团，坚持创新驱动发展，聚焦数字文化、数字科技、数据运营三条业务主线，数字文化业务经营稳健，数字科技业务加速布局，我们预计2024-2026年归母净利润为5.28/6.29/7.25亿元，对应EPS为0.42/0.50/0.57元/股，对应PE为25/21/18x，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　老游戏流水快速下滑，新游戏上线不及预期，新业务拓展不及预期等。

Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group (ZDDC) achieved 3Q24 revenue of RMB756mn (+26.27% yoy, +3.00% qoq), attributable net profit (NP) of RMB327mn (+451.29% yoy, +581.80% qoq), and recurring NP of RMB119mn (+6.89% yoy, -9.44% qoq). For 9M24, revenue reached RMB2,169mn (-5.20% yoy), attributable NP was RMB475mn (-31.38% yoy), and recurring NP was RMB321mn (-46.85% yoy). The 9M24 attributable NP exceeded our forecast (RMB247-267mn), largely due to a boost from fair value changes. We maintain a BUY rating on ZDDC, recognizing the earnings upside potential in its casual games business and the long-term potential of its data business.
Investment gains led to significant attributable NP growth for 3Q24
ZDDC and its subsidiaries saw strong gains in fair value adjustments and investee returns in 3Q24, especially from wireless media equity investments, which added c. RMB140mn to ZDDC’s investment income. In gaming, subsidiary Bianfeng Guandan established partnerships with 12 offline activity centers in August, marking its expansion beyond online markets and supporting cross-channel synergy. In the data business, subsidiary COMMIND received investment of RMB140mn from the Zhejiang Provincial Industry Fund and collaborated with Huawei on Harmony OS adoption in provincial media apps, aligning with media integration trends.
Consolidation of Zhejiang Big Data Exchange
On 21 October, Zhejiang Big Data Exchange completed equity restructuring, with ZDDC taking a majority stake of >50%. Zhejiang Big Data Exchange aims at developing a “1+N” provincial data flow platform. At the 2024 Data Elements Development Conference, Zhejiang Big Data Exchange introduced a mutual recognition mechanism for data insurance services across national data exchanges. We anticipate that consolidating resources post-merger will drive business expansion and improve economies of scale. In 2024 as of 30 September, ZDDC’s controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Daily Press Group, increased its holdings by 12.66mn shares, surpassing 1% of ZDDC’s total shares.
GPM declined due to shift in revenue mix
ZDDC’s 3Q24 GPM fell to 59.68% (-9.25pp yoy), which we mainly attribute to rapid growth in lower-margin digital marketing business. Sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 16.22/13.68/11.48%/-0.61% (-0.27/-1.17/-1.70/-0.17pp yoy), reflecting effective cost controls. Positive on ZDDC’s favorable developments in data business and stable core operations, we maintain our profit forecasts and project attributable net profit of RMB538/666/769mn for 2024/2025/2026. Our SOTP-based target market cap is RMB17.06bn, implying our target price of RMB13.47 (previous: RMB10.37). Maintain BUY.
Risks: slow developments in data elements, policy changes, investment business falling short of our expectations.

　　公司Q3实现营收7.56亿元（yoy+26.27%，qoq+3.00%），归母净利3.27亿元（yoy+451.29%，qoq+581.80%），扣非净利1.19亿元（yoy+6.89%，qoq-9.44%）；2024年Q1-Q3实现营收21.69亿元（yoy-5.20%），归母净利4.75亿元（yoy-31.38%），扣非净利3.21亿元（yoy-46.85%）。归母净利高于我们此前业绩前瞻预期（24Q1-Q3归母净利2.47-2.67亿），主因公允价值变动列示金额增加影响，根据《1号解释性公告》，公司列示的24Q1-Q3归母非经损益金额较原披露数据增加2.1亿元。我们看好公司休闲游戏的业绩弹性，以及其数据要素业务的长期价值。维持“买入”评级。
　　Q3归母净利润大幅增长主因投资收益变化，主营业务推进顺利
　　24Q3公司及子公司公允价值变动及持有的联营企业投资收益较23Q3增长较大，主因其中无线传媒股票公允价值变动影响公司权益法下确认的投资收益金额（对公司投资收益的影响金额约1.4亿元）。游戏业务方面，8月子公司边锋掼蛋与十二家线下活动中心达成合作，我们认为此举意味着边锋掼蛋在深耕线上市场的同时，也逐步向线下领域延伸，线上线下有望迎来协同。数商业务方面，子公司传播大脑获浙江省产业基金投资1.4亿元人民币，此外传播大脑与华为携手推进原生鸿蒙操作系统在省内媒体资讯客户端的使用，顺应媒体融合领域发展。
　　浙江大数据交易中心实现并表，股东回购增强信心
　　10月21日，浙江大数据交易中心成功完成股权重组，浙数文化占股超50%。浙江大数据交易中心致力于构建打造“1+N”统分结合的全省数据流通服务平台，在2024数据要素发展大会上，浙江大数据交易中心推动构建全国范围内的数据交易机构数据保险服务互认机制。我们认为通过并表，双方的资源整合将进一步加强，有望助力浙江大数据交易中心业务扩展和规模效益的提升。24年以来至9月30日，公司控股股东浙报传媒累计增持股份约1266万股，占公司总股本已超过1%。
　　毛利率下滑主因营收结构变化，费用管控效果显著
　　24Q3综合毛利率59.68%，同降9.25pct，我们预计主因毛利率较低的数字营销业务增长较快，占比有所提升。销售/管理/研发/财务费用率16.22%/13.68%/11.48%/-0.61%，同比-0.27/-1.17/-1.70/-0.17pct，费用管控成果显著。我们看好公司在数据要素领域的发展，同时核心主业推进顺利。我们维持盈利预测，预计公司归母净利24-26年为5.4/6.7/7.7亿元，分部估值法下目标市值170.6亿元，对应目标价13.47元。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：数据要素进展较慢，游戏相关政策风险，投资业务不及预期。

1H24 attributable NP down 77% yoy on reduced investment gains
For 1H24, Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group’s (ZDDC) revenue/attributable NP/ recurring NP were RMB1,413/147/203mn (-16.36/-76.71/-58.96% yoy), in line with its profit alert (guiding for -79.44% to -74.70% yoy fall in attributable NP). For 2Q24, revenue/attributable NP were RMB734/48.03mn (-4.03/-86.71% yoy, +8.28/-51.60% qoq). In view of investment losses and its subsidiaries’ disappointing earnings, we cut our 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP estimates to RMB538/666/769mn (previous: RMB735/820/921mn). SOTP valuation: 1) games at 14.1x 2024E PE and technical information services at 4.7x 2024E PS, both in line with peers’ averages on Wind consensus; 2) digital marketing at 21x 2024E PE, below peers’ average of 27.6x on Wind consensus given its smaller scale and unproven business model. Our target market cap is RMB13.13bn and target price is RMB10.37. Maintain BUY.
Games business grew steadily, investment losses constrained profits
In the games segment, subsidiary Bianfeng’s revenue/NP were RMB1.0/0.26bn for 1H24, -26.6/-36.6% yoy, mainly on a decline in its social media business, leading to a notable drop in earnings. Excluding the impact from weak social media business, we expect steady growth in ZDDC’s games division. For example, Game ABC Guandan is the first product in its category to surpass 1mn daily active users (DAUs), and in 1H24 attracted over 13mn new registered users, solidifying its DAU leadership. In addition, ZDDC’s investment loss was RMB22.61mn and loss from changes in fair value was RMB81.65mn for 1H24, with a substantial impact on NP.
FCHYUN’s operations robust, actively exploring digital marketing
In the digital market segment, subsidiary FCHYUN’s revenue/NP were RMB196/ 43.27mn for 1H24, up 4.8/5.2% yoy. Its Hangzhou Fuyang Data Center maintains high utilization currently, while Beijing Sijiqing Data Center is set to collaborate with relevant partners to establish a joint computing center in the future.
Zhejiang Big Data Exchange Center set up special zones
Zhejiang Big Data Exchange Center has launched Nanhu Special Zone, Culture and Tourism Data Zone, and Southeast Zhejiang Industrial Data Zone. In 1H24, the communication large language model (LLM) and social governance model algorithms developed by Commind and Hangzhou City Brain, respectively, were successfully registered with the Cyberspace Administration of China. Notably, the communication LLM was the first media-exclusive LLM developed by a media technology company in China to be registered.
Risks: slow developments in data elements, policy changes, investment business falling short of our expectations.