On 28 May, Shanghai SMI Holding acquired a residential plot in Hongkou District’s Jiaxing Road sub-district, Shanghai, for RMB1.93bn. We believe this acquisition of a scarce site within the Inner Ring Road reflects the company’s conviction in city upgrade demand and long-term asset value in Shanghai’s core districts. It also marks the official start of the company’s land-banking in the public market in 2026. We like the company’s core Shanghai land reserves, funding advantages, rental housing operations and urban renewal capabilities. Combined with Shanghai’s buoyant housing market and the significance of urban renewal in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), we think the market is likely to further revalue the company’s “development, rental housing operations and REITs” platform. Maintain BUY.
New plot to strengthen presence in central districts
The site is located in Hongkou District’s Jiaxing Road sub-district, close to Rui Hong Xintiandi and the North Bund core area. It represents scarce new residential supply within Shanghai’s Inner Ring Road. With a total GFA of approximately 17,800 sqm and a plot ratio of 2.5, the site is suitable for high-end upgrade products. Based on nearby high-end residential prices, we estimate the project’s sellable value at close to RMB3bn. We view the premium paid reflecting the scarcity of quality residential land in core districts and confirming resilient upgrade demand in Shanghai’s central city. The successful bid should bolster the company’s presence in Hongkou and central districts.
Funding advantage underpins land acquisitions
For 1Q26, contracted sales were c. RMB501mn, down by 73% YoY, primarily due to the absence of new project launches during the quarter. We estimate nearly RMB70bn of unsold project value as at end-2025, with 99% based in Shanghai, providing robust pipeline support. We expect key projects, including Aroma Garden Phase II villas and Huangpu Xiaodongmen & Minhang sites, to support a sales recovery. In March and April 2026, the company issued RMB2bn in corporate bonds and RMB870mn in medium-term notes at coupon rates of 1.95% and 2.02%, respectively. We believe this funding advantage positions the company well for land acquisitions. The Hongkou site benefits from a strong location and high sell-through visibility, helping to smooth Shanghai SMI’s sellable-value pipeline in the later phases of its core projects.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 EPS forecasts at RMB0.13/0.16/0.19, with BVPS at RMB8.49/8.61/8.75. Comparable companies trade at average 2026E PB of 0.79x on Wind consensus. Given the company’s position as a LGFV in Shanghai, resource advantages, funding cost edge and its active participation in Shanghai’s urban renewal, we assign 0.79x 2026E PB (previous: 0.75x), for our target price of RMB6.70 (previous: RMB6.41). Retain BUY.
Risks: Slower project launches than we expect leading to earnings shortfalls, increased market supply pressuring sales.

　　5月28日，城投控股以19.3亿元竞得上海虹口嘉兴路街道宅地。我们认为，公司此次获取内环内稀缺宅地，一方面体现其对上海核心区改善需求和长期资产价值的判断，另一方面也标志着公司在2026年公开市场补仓正式落地。结合公司上海核心土储、融资优势、保租房运营及城市更新能力，叠加上海房地产市场的积极表现以及城市更新在“十五五”规划中的重要意义，我们认为公司“开发+保租房运营+REITs”的平台价值有望进一步被市场重估，维持“买入”。
　　溢价竞得虹口宅地，强化中心城区资源布局
　　本次地块位于虹口区嘉兴路街道，靠近瑞虹天地及北外滩核心功能区，属于上海内环内稀缺新增住宅供应。地块总建面约1.78万方，容积率2.5，具备打造高端改善产品的条件。参考周边高端住宅价格，我们预计项目货值接近30亿元。地块溢价成交反映核心区优质宅地供给稀缺，也验证上海中心城区改善需求仍具韧性。公司成功摘牌后，有望进一步强化虹口及中心城区布局。
　　融资优势提供补仓底气，推盘节奏更为清晰
　　2026Q1公司签约销售额5.01亿元，同比-73%，主要因期内未推出新盘。但公司储备充沛，截至2025年末，公司土储对应未售货值近700亿元，且99%位于上海，露香园二期别墅、黄浦小东门、闵行项目等后续入市仍有望支撑销售恢复。公司3、4月分别发行20亿元公司债和8.7亿元中票，票面利率仅1.95%/2.02%，低成本融资为公开市场拿地提供支撑。此次虹口拿地区位优质、去化确定性较强，有助于平滑核心项目后周期的货值供应节奏。
　　上海楼市持续修复叠加城市更新政策红利，强化公司禀赋优势
　　26年以来上海房地产市场持续修复。3-5月二手房网签面积同比分别增长3.2%/20.3%/23.7%，前5月成交面积累计涨幅达8%，一手房4、5月成交同比也分布实现了10.5%/4.5%的正增长，据冰山数据，截至5月末，上海二手房房价已经连续5个月房价环比实现正增长，累计同比+1.3%，显著高于84城（-2.4%）和一线城市均值（-0.8%）。此外，国务院《城市更新“十五五”规划》的提出强化了未来高能级城市城市更新机遇，城投控股不仅坐拥上海黄浦、虹口、闵行等核心区域土地资源，同时在城市更新方面具备丰富经验以及充沛储备，并打通城投宽庭保租房REIT通道，一方面有望充分受益于上海地产需求韧性，另一方面其上海城投平台属性、城市更新能力和REITs退出通道，有望推动公司价值重估。
　　盈利预测和估值
　　我们维持公司2026-2028年EPS为0.13/0.16/0.19元的盈利预测，BPS分别为8.49/8.61/8.75元。可比公司2026年Wind一致预期PB均值0.79倍。考虑公司作为上海城投平台，核心城市资源禀赋突出，融资成本优势显著，积极参与上海城市更新，我们给予0.79倍2026年PB，对应目标价6.70元（前值6.41元，0.75倍2026PB），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：推盘放缓导致业绩低于预期；市场供应放量导致去化趋缓风险。

Shanghai SMI Holdings has reported 1Q26 results,with revenue of RMB853mn(down 63.55%YoY)and attributable net profit of RMB7.27mn(down 69.20%YoY).The YoY contraction in both the top and bottom lines stemmed from asmaller scale of property delivery during the quarter.With contract liabilities still at RMB8.6bn at end-1Q,we expect the full-year revenue decline to narrow.We note that the company continues to benefit from its core resources in Shanghai,with catalysts including the securitization of income-generating assets and urban-renewal opportunities.Maintain BUY.
Sales contracted but saleable resources ample
For 1Q26,contracted sales were c.RMB501mn,down by 73%YoY,with GFA sold of 4,600 sqm(down 69%YoY),primarily due to no new project launches during the reporting period,with sales mainly coming from existing projects such as Aroma Garden Phase II,Jingyunli Phase II,Fu Mansion,and Hongshengli.We estimate nearly RMB70bn of unsold project value as at end-2025 with 99%based in Shanghai,providing robust pipeline support.We expect key projects including Aroma Garden Phase II villas and Huangpu Xiaodongmen&Minhang sites acquired in 2024 to be launched this year,supporting asales recovery.On landbank expansion,while the company made no acquisitions during 1Q26,it ended the period with strong liquidity(RMB6.5bn cash)and financing advantages.In March and April 2026,the company issued RMB2bn corporate bonds and RMB870mn medium-term notes at coupon rates of 1.95%and 2.02%,respectively,with the MTN rate 38bp lower than the one issued in September 2025.We believe this funding advantage positions the company well for land acquisitions,awaiting its push in the land market this year.
Operating segment expanding;REIT potential growing
The company’s leasing business continued to expand,with 391,200 sqm leased as at end-1Q26(up 19%YoY).Growth was driven by rising occupancy rates at operational projects.For 1Q26,rental income totaled RMB120mn,up 56.9%YoY.As the company’s operating scale increases,we expect its profit potential to improve.Furthermore,having established C-REIT channels,the company has entered the expansion cycle,planning to include Pujiang and Jiuxing communities as underlying assets.We expect this to unlock value through asset securitization and potential revaluation.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB334/394/471mn,with BVPS at RMB8.53/8.69/8.88.Comparable companies trade at average 2026E PB of 0.75x on Wind consensus.As aShanghai urban development platform with distinctive advantages and active participation in urban renewal,the company should benefit under the new property development model,in our view.Considering its emphasis on dividends and share buybacks reflects proactive market cap management,we assign 0.75x 2026E PB(previous:0.74x)based on BVPS of RMB8.53.We arrive at our target price of RMB6.41(previous:RMB6.31).Retain BUY.
Risks:Slower project launches than we expect leading to earnings shortfalls,increased market supply pressuring sales.

　　城投控股发布一季报，2026Q1实现营收8.53亿元（yoy-63.55%），归母净利726.65万元（yoy-69.20%）。因期内地产结算规模下降，致收入和利润同比收缩。截至期末，公司合同负债仍有86亿，我们预计全年营收降幅有望收窄。公司核心城市禀赋优势显著，同时具有持有运营资产证券化以及城市更新机遇等诸多看点，维持“买入”。
　　销售规模下降但可售资源充沛，积极发挥融资优势或为拓储蓄势
　　期内签约销售额约5.01亿元（yoy-73%），销售面积0.46万方（yoy-69%），规模收缩的原因在于期内公司未推出新盘，主要是露香园二期、璟雲里二期、馥公馆、虹盛里等项目续销。据我们测算，截至2025年末公司土储对应未售货值仍有近700亿，且99%位于上海，待入市货值充沛。预计露香园二期别墅、24年所获黄浦小东门部分货值以及闵行项目有望今年入市，助力销售规模回升。拓储方面，Q1尚未发力，但在手货币资金充足（65亿）。3、4月公司分别成功发行20亿公司债和8.7亿，利率分别为1.95%/2.02%，中票利率较25年9月所发中票再降38bp。融资优势为公司拿地蓄势，静待公司今年在土地市场发力。
　　运营板块持续扩张，资产证券化空间提升
　　公司租赁业务进一步扩张。截至期末，已出租面积约39.12万方，同比提升19%，增长主要来自于在营项目的出租率提升。Q1租赁业务租金合计1.2亿，同比+56.9%。随着公司管理规模逐步扩大，有望提升盈利空间。此外，公司已打通C-REIT通道，目前已经进入扩募周期，计划将浦江和九星社区纳入底层资产，资产证券化以及价值重估的空间也有望进一步提升。
　　盈利预测和估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利为3.34/3.94/4.71亿元、BPS8.53/8.69/8.88元的盈利预测，可比公司2026年Wind一致预期PB均值为0.75倍，我们认为公司作为上海城投平台，禀赋优势显著，积极参与上海城市更新，有望受益于地产发展新模式下的政策，强调分红以及回购，显示其积极的市值管理态度，予以0.75倍26PB，对应26BPS8.53元，目标价6.41元（前值6.31元，0.74倍26PB），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：推盘放缓导致业绩低于预期；市场供应放量导致去化趋缓风险。

Shanghai SMI Holding has reported 2025 revenue of RMB14,457mn(up by 53.27%YoY),an attributable net profit of RMB289mn(up by 19.19%YoY)and arecurring net profit of RMB331mn(up by 212.15%YoY).The full-year attributable net profit broadly matched its profit alert(RMB290mn).For 4Q25,revenue was RMB4,942mn(down by 41.97%YoY,up by 37.75%QoQ)and the attributable net profit was RMB2.69mn(down by 99.41%YoY/97.98%QoQ).The company has proposed acash dividend of RMB0.4 per 10 shares.We note that the company continues to benefit from its core resources in Shanghai,with catalysts including the securitization of income-generating assets and urban-renewal opportunities.Maintain BUY.
Revenue and gross margin both rose
Driven by Aroma Garden Phase II entering its peak settlement phase,property development revenue rose by 55.9%YoY to RMB14.08bn,and the settlement gross margin improved by 3.5pp YoY to 17.7%in 2025.Growth in attributable net profit lagged behind revenue growth,mainly owing to:1)increased land appreciation taxes resulting from changes in local tax incentive policies,causing taxes and surcharges to surge by 275%YoY to RMB690mn;2)fluctuations in the market value of securities holdings,leading to aYoY decrease of RMB160mn in fair value change gains.Given the contraction in last year’s sales scale,we anticipate the company’s settlement volume to decline in 2026.However,the impact of the aforementioned non-recurring factors should diminish as well.
Contract sales fell,inventory and funding advantages solid
For 2025,contracted sales were c.RMB6.78bn,down by 62%YoY,primarily due to no new project launches during the reporting period,with sales mainly coming from existing projects such as Aroma Garden Phase II,Xinghuali,Jingyunli Phase II,Fu Mansion,and Hongshengli.In comparison,the company launched the Aroma Garden Phase II in 2024,which led to ahigh base with new sales of nearly RMB20bn.We estimate nearly RMB70bn of unsold project value with 99%based in Shanghai,providing robust pipeline support.We expect key projects including Aroma Garden Phase II villas and Huangpu Xiaodongmen&Minhang sites acquired in 2024 to be launched this year,supporting asales recovery.On landbank expansion,while the company made no acquisitions during 2025,the company ended the period with strong liquidity(RMB8.2bn cash)and financing advantages.It issued RMB1.73bn of medium-term notes at 2.4%in September 2025,followed by an RMB2bn five-year corporate bond at 1.95%in March 2026,which we think should position it well for potential land purchases this year.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
The company repurchased 12.7mn shares(0.51%of total shares outstanding)in 2025,which have been cancelled.Due to slower project launches than we expect,we revise down our revenue forecasts.We now forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB334/394/471mn(-59.58/-61.73%vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates of RMB826/1,030mn),with BVPS at RMB8.53/8.69/8.88.Comparable companies trade at average 2026E PB of 0.74x on Wind consensus.As aShanghai urban development platform with distinctive advantages and active participation in urban renewal,the company should benefit under the new property development model,in our view.Considering its emphasis on dividends and share buybacks reflects proactive market cap management,we assign 0.74x 2026E PB(previous:0.76x)for our target price of RMB6.31(previous:RMB6.70).Retain BUY.
Risks:slower project launches than we expect leading to earnings shortfall;increased market supply pressuring sales.