Sinoma International has reported 9M26 revenue of RMB31,941mn (-3.20% YoY), an attributable net profit of RMB1,288mn (-37.91% YoY), and a recurring net profit of RMB1,299mn (-29.82% YoY). For 3Q26, revenue was RMB10,679mn (-5.68% YoY, -9.17% QoQ) and the attributable net profit was RMB354mn (-45.75% YoY, -26.05% QoQ), missing our expectation (RMB500mn), primarily due to geopolitical tensions abroad that drove up costs, weighed on the GPM, and caused higher asset impairments. New contract signings remained resilient in 9M26 (+7% YoY). We expect earnings to improve alongside project execution. Maintain BUY.
GPM fell YoY on rising expense ratios
For 9M26, the overall GPM tightened by 0.15pp YoY to 17.03%. For 3Q26, the GPM was 17.53% (-0.53pp YoY, +0.47pp QoQ). The overall expense ratio rose by 1.25pp YoY to 10.19% in 9M26, with the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios up by 0.01/0.26/0.34/0.64pp YoY. For 3Q26, the overall expense ratio climbed by 0.95pp YoY to 10.71%, largely reflecting higher R&D investments. Impairment losses totaled RMB487mn for 9M26 (+RMB166mn YoY), including RMB294mn for 3Q26 (+RMB98mn YoY). Consequently, the 3Q26 attributable NPM stood at 3.32% (-2.45pp YoY, -0.76pp QoQ).
Cash flows improved notably YoY
The operating cash inflow reached RMB226mn in 9M26 (+RMB855mn YoY), with the cash receipts-to-revenue ratio at 96.1% (+11.73pp YoY) and the cash payment-to-cost ratio at 94.4% (+9.49pp YoY). For 3Q26, the net operating cash inflow was RMB383mn (down RMB405mn YoY). At end-3Q26, contract liabilities rose significantly by RMB1,669mn YoY to RMB10,512mn, pointing to a growing pipeline of effective projects. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at about 62.3% (+1.62pp YoY, +0.32pp vs end-1H26), while the interest-bearing debt ratio was 11.2% (-0.64pp YoY, -0.27pp vs end-1H26).
Resilient order growth in 9M26
New contracts signed reached RMB64.3bn in 9M26 (+7% YoY), including RMB19.7bn in 3Q26 (+6% YoY), underpinned by a recovery in domestic engineering and solid progress in overseas operations. By business, new contracts for engineering services/equipment manufacturing/operation services were RMB37.5/6.6/18.3bn in 9M26 (-4/-8/+53% YoY). By region, domestic new contracts totaled RMB19.5bn (+5% YoY), with engineering services/equipment manufacturing/operation services at +45/-24/-1% YoY. Overseas new contracts reached RMB44.8bn (+8% YoY), accounting for 69.7% of total new signings, with engineering services/equipment manufacturing/operation services at -11/+6/+187% YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given heightened overseas geopolitical uncertainties, which disrupted project execution and elevated construction costs, we lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts by 17.55/17.80/18.53% to RMB1,996/2,024/ 2,057mn. We value the stock at 11.0x 2026E PE, in line with its peers’ average on Wind consensus. Our updated target price is RMB8.38 (previous: RMB10.16, based on 11.0x 2026E PE vs peers' average of 10.0x). Maintain BUY.
Risks: slower-than-expected equipment manufacturing market share gains, lower-than-expected increments from cement production lines and mine O&M, a sharp decline in cement companies' investment.

　　Q3收入小幅下滑，利润端压力延续。2026Q1-3公司实现营业收入319亿元，同降3%；归母净利润12.9亿元，同降38%。Q3单季营收/归母净利润分别同降6%/46%，业绩延续承压，主要因：1）毛利率有所下行，预计部分因海外部分区域战事冲击致工程项目履约成本有所增长，叠加部分市场业务开拓初期利润率有所压力；2）Q3减值同比多计提1.0亿元，对当期利润形成拖累；3）Q3期间费用率同增0.95pct（研发/财务费用率同增0.8/0.1pct），进一步压低净利率。后续随着海外项目履约环境逐步常态化、汇率企稳，净利率有望稳步修复。
　　费用及减值影响归母净利率，现金流有所改善。2026Q1-3综合毛利率17.0%，同降0.2pct（Q3单季同降0.5pct至17.5%），毛利率小幅承压；期间费用率10.2%，同增1.2pct，其中管理/研发/财务费用率分别同增0.3/0.3/0.6pct（Q3单季分别同增0.04/0.8/0.1pct），财务费用率提升主要受美元、欧元贬值导致汇兑损失（上年同期为汇兑收益）。减值同比多计提1.7亿元；投资收益同减1.0亿元，综合影响归母净利率同降2.3pct至4.0%（Q3单季同降2.45pct至3.3%）。2026Q1-3经营现金流净流入2.3亿元，同比改善8.6亿元，其中Q3单季净流入3.8亿元，同比改善4.0亿元，主要系收到项目预付款及进度款增加，项目回款情况有所改善，对经营资金周转形成支撑。
　　Q3海外运维签单表现亮眼，有望驱动业务结构优化。2026Q1-3公司新签合同642.7亿元，同增7%；Q3单季新签197.5亿元，同增6%，其中Q3境内/境外分别同增14%/2%，境内外订单稳步提升。分业务看，2026Q1-3工程/装备/运维新签合同分别同比-4%/-8%/+53%，运维业务占比持续提升，带动业务结构持续改善；Q3单季分别同比-22%/-35%/+106%，其中2026Q1-3境外运维新签98.7亿元，同增187%，Q3单季新签60.8亿元，同增355%，海外运维业务拓展成效显著。截至9月底公司未完合同额708.0亿元，同增6%，在手订单规模稳步增长，为后续项目执行及收入转化提供支撑。随着新增运维订单逐步执行，运维业务收入占比有望提升，推动业务结构进一步优化。
　　投资建议：毛利率下滑叠加减值计提增加拖累公司Q3盈利，我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为20.22/23.76/27.24亿元，同比-29%/+17.5%/+14.7%，对应EPS分别为0.77/0.91/1.04元/股，对应PE分别为9.4/8.0/7.0倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：信用减值风险、订单转化不及预期、海外项目执行进度不及预期、汇率波动风险等。

　　事件：
　　10月21日，公司披露2026年三季报：前三季度，公司实现营业收入319.41亿元，同比下降3.2%；归母净利润12.88亿元，同比下降37.91%。
　　观点：
　　境内水泥行情低迷叠加汇兑损失，业绩阶段性承压。前三季度，公司实现营业收入319.41亿元，同比下降3.2%；利润总额16.95亿元，同比下降34.93%；归母净利润12.88亿元，同比下降37.91%；
　　扣非归母净利润12.99亿元，同比下降29.82%；加权平均净资产收益率5.63%，同比减少3.98个百分点。单季度看，Q3实现营业收入106.79亿元，同比下降5.68%；归母净利润3.54亿元，同比下降45.75%，降幅较上半年有所扩大。公司披露，利润下滑主要源于三方面：一是受境内水泥市场行情影响，毛利有所下降；
　　二是本期美元、欧元贬值产生汇兑损失，而上年同期为汇兑收益，形成明显的基数反差；三是应收款项等减值计提较上年同期增加。
　　若扣除非经常性损益与汇兑损益，经营性盈利降幅显著小于表观利润，显示业绩下滑中非经营性扰动成分较大。
　　合同储备充沛，境外与矿业、绿能业务结构持续优化。报告期内，公司克服国内水泥需求下行、中东地区局势变化、外汇汇率波动等不利影响，整体经营保持稳健。从订单结构看，公司新签合同中境内水泥工程合同占比持续下降，服务业务占比持续提升；
　　境外市场仍是合同额增长的主要驱动力，增速显著高于境内市场，其中矿业业务新签合同逆市增长、境外占比进一步提升，绿能环保业务国内外市场协同发力，增长潜力持续释放，业务结构转型正逐步对冲境内水泥工程需求下行。现金流层面，前三季度经营活动现金流量净额2.26亿元，由上年同期净流出转为净流入，主要系项目预付款及进度款回款增加，经营质量稳步提升。往后看，建议关注三条线索：境内水泥需求何时见底企稳、汇率波动对利润的扰动能否收敛，以及境外与矿业服务订单的收入转化节奏。
　　盈利预测及投资评级：2026年上半年，受水泥行业整体景气度下行、以及汇兑损益和资产处置损益等多因素影响，公司业绩出现下滑。另一方面，境内水泥工程业务承压但境外、矿业、绿能多元驱动格局渐成，经营性现金流转正，经营质量有所改善。考虑到业绩波动，我们下调2026-2028年归母净利润预测（原值25.46/27.68/29.97亿元），预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为20.06/20.22/21.65亿元，对应PE分别为9.2倍、9.1倍、8.5倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：水泥行业景气度持续下滑；宏观经济复苏不及预期；地缘政治波动风险；海外水泥需求出现波动；数据引用风险。

　　中材国际发布三季报：9M26实现营收319.41亿元（yoy-3.20%），归母净利12.88亿元（yoy-37.91%），扣非净利12.99亿元（yoy-29.82%）。其中26Q3实现营收106.79亿元（yoy-5.68%，qoq-9.17%），归母净利3.54亿元（yoy-45.75%，qoq-26.05%），低于我们的预期（5亿元），主因境外局势紧张导致成本增加毛利率下降、减值增加。公司9M26新签订单维持稳健，同比+7%，未来随项目执行经营有望改善，维持“买入”评级。
　　毛利率、费用率同比承压，减值进一步拖累净利率
　　9M26公司综合毛利率同比-0.15pct至17.03%，其中26Q3为17.53%，同比-0.53pct，环比+0.47pct。9M26期间费用率10.19%，同比+1.25pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比+0.01/+0.26/+0.34/+0.64pct，26Q3期间费用率同比+0.95pct至10.71%，主要由于研发投入增加较多。9M26减值支出合计4.87亿元，同比增加1.66亿元，26Q3减值支出合计2.94亿元，同比增加0.98亿元。综合影响下，公司26Q3归母净利率为3.32%，同比-2.45pct，环比-0.76pct。
　　合同负债显著增加预示项目逐步生效，现金流同比大幅改善
　　9M26公司经营性净现金流2.26亿元，同比多流入8.55亿元，收现比96.1%，同比+11.73pct，付现比94.4%，同比+9.49pct，其中，26Q3单季经营性净现金流3.83亿元，同比多流出4.05亿元。截至26Q3末，公司合同负债同比显著增加16.69亿元至105.12亿元，预示生效项目增加，资产负债率约62.3%，同比+1.62pct，较26H1末+0.32pct；有息负债率为11.2%，同比-0.64pct，较26H1末-0.27pct。
　　9M26新签订单稳健增长
　　9M26新签订单643亿元，同比+7%，其中26Q3单季新签197亿元，同比+6%，结构上境内工程有所恢复，境外运营业务拓展成果显著。分业务看，前三季度工程技术/装备制造/运营服务分别新签375/66/183亿元，同比-4%/-8%/+53%；分地区看，境内新签195亿元，同比+5%，其中工程技术/装备制造/运营服务同比+45%/-24%/-1%；境外新签448亿元，同比+8%，占总新签比例达69.7%，其中工程技术/装备制造/运营服务同比-11%/+6%/+187%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到境外局势不确定性增加，国际市场业务执行进度受到影响、施工成本增加，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润至19.96/20.24/20.57亿元（较前值分别调整-17.55%/-17.80%/-18.53%）。可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均11xPE，给予公司26年11xPE，调整目标价至8.38元（前值10.16元，26年11xPE，可比均值10xPE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：装备制造市占率提升不及预期，水泥生产线及矿山运维增量不及预期，水泥行业投资显著下滑。

Sinoma International reported 1H26 revenue of RMB21.3bn (-1.9% YoY), attributable NP of RMB934mn (-34.3% YoY), and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB948mn (-23.5% YoY). In 2Q26, revenue came in at RMB11.8bn (+1.98% YoY), while attributable NP was RMB479mn (-36.82% YoY), below our expectation of RMB644mn, mainly due to higher FX losses and lower gains on disposals of non-current assets. We believe non-operating gain and losses weighed on near-term earnings. The medium- to long-term outlook remains solid, with new contract value rising 8% YoY to RMB44.5bn in 1H26. Backlog reached RMB71.7bn at end-1H26, up 15.5% YoY, providing strong earnings visibility. Based on the August 25 closing price of RMB7.85 per share, we forecast a 2026E dividend yield of 5.7%. Maintain BUY.
Equipment sales surge; non-cement & overseas accelerates
In 1H26, engineering/equipment/O&M revenue came in at RMB11.7bn/RMB2.9bn/ RMB6.1bn, representing -6.9%/+25.5%/-2.9% YoY. Gross margins were 14.26%/ 16.74%/19.41%, changing by +1.14pp/-2.54pp/-0.63pp YoY. In equipment, revenue contribution from non-cement industries increased by 5pp from end-2025 to 45%. Mining equipment revenue rose 14% YoY, while green energy and environmental-protection equipment revenue increased by over 1.6x YoY. Overseas revenue reached RMB1.3bn (+11% YoY), with the company entering the North American and European markets for vertical mills and roller presses. The company had 69 cement production lines under O&M contracts at end-1H26, including 63 overseas. Overseas cement O&M revenue increased 9% YoY to RMB1.7bn. The company also operated 319 mining O&M projects, including 24 overseas projects, six more than at end-2025. Overseas mining O&M revenue rose by more than 1.3x YoY to RMB122mn.
Strong overseas orders: NA breakthrough, robust equip./O&M
New orders totaled RMB44.5bn in 1H26, up 8% YoY. New engineering/equipment/ O&M orders reached RMB28.7bn/RMB5.1bn/RMB9.4bn, representing +4%/+4%/ +22% YoY. By region, domestic new orders rose 1% YoY to RMB13.5bn, with engineering/equipment/O&M orders changing by +13%/-12%/+1% YoY. Overseas new orders increased 12% YoY to RMB31.1bn. High-end equipment exports maintained strong momentum, with new orders up 18% YoY, including growth of 19% YoY for mining equipment and 1.13x YoY for cement equipment. New O&M orders surged 80% YoY, driven by over 2.1x YoY growth in mining O&M orders. New engineering orders rose 2% YoY. The company signed 16 complete cement production-line projects in 1H26, including its first such project in Canada, marking a breakthrough in North America. New overseas technical-upgrade orders increased 46% YoY to RMB1.1bn.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Given higher FX losses and lower gains on asset disposals, we revise down our 2026-2028E attributable NP forecasts to RMB2.4bn/RMB2.5bn/RMB2.5bn (-19.58%/ -21.86%/-23.15% vs our previous forecasts). Comparable companies are trading at an average of 10x 2026E PE based on Wind consensus. Sinoma International is making steady progress in its business transformation, while its O&M services are growing rapidly. We believe its business model and operating sustainability could outperform those of peers over time. We apply 11x 2026E PE and derive a target price of RMB10.16 (previously RMB14.93, based on 13x 2026E PE vs the then peer average of 12x). Maintain BUY.
Risks: slower-than-expected market-share gains in equipment manufacturing, weaker-than-expected incremental demand for cement production lines and mining O&M, a sharp decline in cement industry investment.

　　事件：10月22日公司公告1-3Q2026实现营收319.4亿元，同比-3.2%，归母、扣非净利润12.9、13.0亿元，同比-37.9%、-29.8%。Q3单季度营收106.8亿元，同比-5.7%，归母、扣非净利润3.5、3.5亿元，同比-45.7%、-42.6%。
　　订单总量稳健，结构向运维与境外倾斜。Q1-3公司新签合同642.7亿元、同比+7%，其中境内、境外分别新签194.7、448.0亿元，同比+5%、+8%，境外占比达69.7%，分业务看，Q1-3公司工程、装备、运维业务分别新签375、66、183亿元，同比-4%、-8%、+53%；其中Q3单季新签197.5亿元、同比+6%，境内60.0亿元同比+14%、境外137.5亿元同比+2%。其中，Q1-3公司境外装备、运维业务分别同比+6%、+187%，公司"两外一服"结构持续深化。往后看，Dangote4.76亿美元设备大单、境外水泥整线与绿能环保订单将逐步进入交付，有望带动公司经营结构改善。
　　毛利率基本持稳，现金流改善明显。公司毛利率为17.03%，同比-0.2pct，1-3Q2026期间费用率同比+1.25pct至10.19%，财务费用同比增加2.08亿元，或因汇兑损失同比增加，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别+0.01、+0.26、+0.34、+0.64pct，1-3Q2026公司资产及信用减值损失为4.87亿元，同比多损失1.7亿元，综合影响下净利率同比-2.25pct至4.03%。1-3Q2026公司CFO净额为2.3亿元，同比+8.55亿元，收现比、付现比同比分别+11.72pct、+9.49pct，至96.12%、94.35%。
　　投资建议：Q4为传统结转高峰，若地缘扰动与汇率波动边际缓和，全年业绩仍有望修复。预计公司26-28年归母净利润为23.2、27.3、31.4亿元，对应PE为8.0、6.8、5.9倍，维持"增持"评级。
　　风险提示：项目推进不及预期，订单承接不及预期，业务拓展不及预期。

　　事件：8月25日公司公告1H2026实现营收212.6亿元，同比-1.9%，归母、扣非净利润9.3、9.5亿元，同比-34.3%、-23.5%。Q2单季度营收117.6亿元，同比+2.0%，归母、扣非净利润4.8、5.2亿元，同比-36.8%、-19.4%。
　　装备业务收入高增，“两外一服”布局深化。分业务来看，1H26公司工程、装备、运营业务分别实现营收117.1、29.0、60.5亿元，分别同比-6.9%、+25.5%、-2.9%，毛利率分别为14.3%、16.7%、19.4%，分别同比+1.14pct、-2.54pct、-0.63pct。分地区看，1H26公司境内、境外分别实现营收83.6、127.8亿元，分别同比-14.8%，+9.2%，境内、境外分别实现毛利率16.6%、16.6%，同比+2.06、-1.36pct。公司“两外一服”布局继续深化，装备业务中，境外水泥装备新签合同额24.32亿元同比+113%；装备外行业收入占比达45%较25年末提升5pct；沙特服务中心成功落地首个存量设备运维合同，本地化服务能力持续升级。运维业务中，公司境外矿山运维收入1.22亿元同增超130%，新签境外矿山运维合同10.96亿元，同增超210%。1H26公司合计实现新签订单445.2亿元同比+8%。
　　汇兑损失拖累净利润，经营现金流改善明显。公司毛利率为16.78%，同比+0.1pct，1H2026期间费用率同比+1.41pct至9.93%，主要因报告期内公司产生汇兑损失1.85亿元，同比多损失3.22亿元，财务费用同比+0.91pct，1H2026公司资产及信用减值损失为1.92亿元，同比多损失0.7亿元，综合影响下净利率同比-2.16pct至4.39%。1H2026公司CFO净额为-1.6亿元，同比+4.51亿元，收现比、付现比同比分别+9.27pct、+5.45pct，至92.54%、89.85%。
　　投资建议：预计公司26-28年归母净利润为25.3、29.6、32.9亿元，对应PE为8.1、7.0、6.3倍，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：项目推进不及预期，订单承接不及预期，业务拓展不及预期。