For 1H26, revenue fell by 26.79% YoY to RMB821mn, attributable net loss was RMB49mn, and recurring net loss was RMB63mn. The earnings decline in 1H26 was mainly due to the weak business climate in downstream petrochemical and chemical sectors, which led to lower sales volume and ASP for stainless steel pipe products. A sharp increase in FX losses also weighed on earnings. We expect earnings to improve at the margin in 2H26, as petrochemical maintenance seasons end and inventory restocking starts, with support from overseas order expansion and higher contributions from high-end products. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM fell to 4.35% in 1H26; FX losses weighed on earnings
For 1H26, the company's overall GPM fell by 10.07pp YoY to 4.35%, as GPM for both seamless and welded pipes declined. This was mainly due to lower product ASP, limited raw material cost relief, and higher unit fixed costs amid insufficient capacity utilization. For 1H26, the overall expense ratio rose by 4.77pp YoY to 12.20%. Financial expenses were RMB20mn, versus -RMB3mn in the same period last year, including FX losses of RMB21mn due to RMB exchange rate volatility. Asset impairment losses were RMB13mn, including inventory write-downs of RMB13mn, which widened by 63.23% YoY.
2Q26 losses widened QoQ; operating cash flow fell
For 2Q26, revenue was RMB513mn (-19.7/+66.5% YoY/QoQ), attributable net loss was RMB32mn, versus attributable net loss of RMB18mn in 1Q26 and attributable NP of RMB45mn in the same period last year, and recurring net loss was RMB38mn. Revenue improved QoQ in 2Q26 due to faster seasonal delivery, but low GPM and persistent FX losses caused losses to widen QoQ. At the industry level, stainless crude steel output increased by 7.19% YoY in 1H26, while exports fell by 17.77% YoY, indicating that the supply-heavy and demand-weak industry structure remained unchanged. Operating net cash flow was -RMB70mn in 1H26, reflecting pressure on operating cash flow. However, the company maintained ample liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents of RMB643mn and wealth management products of RMB455mn at period-end.
Upscaling on track, await downstream demand recovery
The company focuses on high-end fields such as nuclear power, LNG, and coal chemicals, and is accelerating its 20ktpa high-performance stainless steel seamless pipe project for high-end equipment. It has added advanced equipment, including LG15/LG10 cold-rolling mills, and completed ABS/CCS classification society certification and PED seamless pipe re-certification. In the short term, we expect restocking demand to be released after the petrochemical maintenance season in 2H26. In the medium term, overseas market expansion should offset domestic pressure. In the long term, the company's certification barriers and equipment advantages in high-end stainless steel pipes form its core competitiveness.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the potential expansion of downstream demand after the petrochemical maintenance season in 2H26 and the company's overseas expansion, we maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB105/109/130mn. We project 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.19/0.19/0.23 and BVPS of RMB4.87/4.99/5.14. We value the stock at 1.29x 2026E PB, a 10% discount to its peers' average of 1.43x, to reflect earnings pressure from weak downstream demand. Our target price is RMB6.27 (previous: RMB8.63, based on 1.77x 2026E PB). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: downstream demand recovery falling short of our expectation, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, FX volatility, intensified competition.

　　2026年上半年，公司实现营业收入8.21亿元（yoy-26.79%），归母净利润-0.49亿元（yoy-165.09%），扣非归母净利润-0.63亿元（yoy-192.52%）。H1业绩下滑主因下游石化、化工行业景气度低迷，不锈钢管产品销量和均价双双走低，叠加汇兑损失大幅增加。展望下半年，若H2石化检修季结束后补库启动，叠加海外订单拓展及高端产品放量，业绩有望边际改善。
　　H1毛利率降至4.35%，汇兑损失拖累显著
　　公司H1整体毛利率降至4.35%（yoy-10.07pct），无缝管、焊管毛利率均下滑，主因产品均价下行而原材料成本降幅有限，叠加产能利用率不足导致单位固定成本上升。期间费用率12.20%（yoy+4.77pct），其中财务费用2,041万元（上年同期-341万元），汇兑损失达2,141万元，主因人民币汇率波动。资产减值损失1,268万元，其中存货跌价损失1,338万元，同比扩大63.23%。
　　Q2亏损环比扩大，经营现金流承压
　　Q2单季营收约5.13亿元（yoy-19.7%，qoq+66.5%），归母净利润-0.32亿元（Q1为-0.18亿元，上年同期+0.45亿元），扣非归母净利润-0.38亿元。Q2营收环比改善主因季节性交付节奏加快，但毛利率仍处于低位，叠加汇兑损失持续，致亏损环比扩大。行业层面，1-6月不锈钢粗钢产量yoy+7.19%，出口yoy-17.77%，供强需弱格局未改。H1经营现金流净额-0.70亿元，反映经营现金流承压，但期末货币资金6.43亿元+理财4.55亿元，流动性充裕。
　　高端化布局持续推进，静待下游需求回暖
　　公司持续聚焦核电、LNG、煤化工等高端领域，加快推进年产2万吨高端装备用高性能不锈钢无缝管项目，新增LG15/LG10冷轧机组等先进装备，完成ABS、CCS船级社扩证及PED无缝管复证。短期看，石化检修季后H2补库需求有望释放；中期看，海外市场拓展有望对冲国内压力；长期看，公司在高端不锈钢管领域的认证壁垒与装备优势构成核心竞争力。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到H2石化检修季后下游需求有望集中释放，且公司积极拓展海外市场，我们维持盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为1.05/1.09/1.30亿元，对应EPS为0.19/0.19/0.23元，BVPS为4.87/4.99/5.14元。可比公司2026年PB均值为1.43X，因公司下游需求偏弱导致盈利承压，我们给予10%折价率，给予公司1.29XPB，目标价6.27元（前值8.63元，对应26年1.77XPB）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求恢复不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动；汇率波动风险；行业竞争进一步加剧。

In 2025,the company achieved revenue of RMB2.34bn(down 11.94%YoY),attributable NP of RMB80mn(down 36.67%YoY)and recurring attributable NP of RMB58mn(down 44.04%YoY).In 1Q26,it reported revenue of RMB308mn(-36.20%YoY),attributable NP of-RMB18mn(down 157.89%YoY)and recurring attributable NP of-RMB25mn(down 189.40%YoY).The significant earnings decline in 1Q26 was mainly due to weak downstream demand for steel pipes,with both sales volume and ASP of pipe products falling 40.71%and 17.66%YoY,respectively,leading to asharp 10.82pp decline in gross margin.Looking ahead,if US-Iran conflict uncertainties ease in 2Q-3Q,we think downstream petrochemical and energy sector demand may marginally improve,potentially driving earnings recovery.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2025 revenue slid;business climate downturn dented profit
In 2025,the company's revenue decreased 11.94%YoY and attributable NP fell 36.67%YoY,mainly due to slowing demand in the stainless steel pipe industry and weakening sentiment in downstream petroleum and chemical sectors,leading to reduced order volumes.The company's overall gross margin in 2025 was 11.37%(down 3.80pp YoY),with seamless pipe gross margin at 12.26%(down 3.69pp YoY)and welded pipe gross margin at 8.42%(down 5.15pp YoY).The gross margin decline was primarily caused by lower ASP and raw material price fluctuations.For expense ratio,it came in at 7.84%(down 0.35pp YoY),indicating sound cost control across all expense items.Regarding cash flow,net operating cash flow in 2025 was RMB312mn(down 46.43%YoY),mainly due to reduced sales collections YoY.
1Q26 steel pipe volume and price both contracted
In 1Q26,the company's revenue declined significantly due to weak downstream demand,with seamless pipe sales volume down 51.43%YoY and ASP down 16.73%YoY,while welded pipe sales volume decreased 22.62%YoY.The expense ratio in 1Q26 was 17.43%(up 8.91pp YoY),including sales expenses of RMB10mn(up 5.06%YoY),administrative expenses of RMB15mn(down 9.25%YoY),R&D expenses of RMB17mn(down 2.19%YoY),and financial expenses of RMB12mn(vs-RMB2mn in 1Q25),mainly due to increased interest expenses and FX losses.We believe that if uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict ease and unlock restocking demand from the downstream petrochemical and energy industries,the company's earnings may gradually recover.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As weakening downstream demand has dragged on the company's profitability,we have lowered our revenue and gross margin estimates for its petrochemical segment products and revenue estimates for its natural gas segment products.We now forecast the company's 2026-28 attributable NP at RMB105/109/130mn,representing a63.82/67.09%downward revision for 2026/2027,with EPS of RMB0.19/0.19/0.23,and BVPS of RMB4.87/4.99/5.14.Given that the company is an asset-heavy enterprise whose competitive advantages in high-end production capacity and technical patents are reflected in its net assets,we have switched to aPB valuation method.With its peers'average 2026 PB at 1.97x on BBG consensus,we apply a10%discount due to the company's strained profit from weak downstream demand,arriving at a1.77x PB and atarget price of RMB8.63(previous:RMB5.93,on 13.8x 2025E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Greater volatility in commodity prices,disappointing policy implementation,downstream demand below our expectations.

　　2025年，公司实现营业收入23.35亿元（yoy-11.94%），归母净利润0.80亿元（yoy-36.67%），扣非归母净利润0.58亿元（yoy-44.04%）。2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入3.08亿元（yoy-36.20%），归母净利润-0.18亿元（yoy-157.89%），扣非归母净利润-0.25亿元（yoy-189.40%）。一季度业绩大幅下滑主要是钢管下游需求偏弱，钢管产品销量和均价分别同比-40.71%和-17.66%，导致销售毛利率大幅下滑10.82pct。展望后市，若Q2-Q3美伊冲突不确定性下降，下游石化、能源行业需求或边际改善，业绩有望逐步修复。维持"增持"评级。
　　25年营收下滑，石化等行业景气度下行拖累盈利
　　2025年，公司实现营业收入同比-11.94%，归母净利润同比-36.67%，主要系不锈钢管行业需求放缓，下游石油、化工等行业景气度下行，订单量减少。公司2025年整体毛利率为11.37%（yoy-3.80pct），无缝管毛利率12.26%（yoy-3.69pct），焊接管毛利率8.42%（yoy-5.15pct），毛利率下滑主要系产品平均售价下降及原材料价格波动所致。费用率方面，期间费用率7.84%（yoy-0.35pct），各项费用控制良好。现金流方面，2025年经营活动现金流净额3.12亿元，同比-46.43%，主要系销售回款同比减少所致。
　　26Q1钢管产品量价双降，毛利率大幅下滑致亏损
　　2026年一季度公司营收大幅下滑主要因为下游需求偏弱，期间无缝管销量同比-51.43%、均价同比-16.73%，焊接管销量同比-22.62%。26Q1期间费用率17.43%（yoy+8.91pct），其中销售费用0.10亿元（yoy+5.06%），管理费用0.15亿元（yoy-9.25%），研发费用0.17亿元（yoy-2.19%），财务费用0.12亿元（上年同期-0.02亿元），主要系利息支出增加及汇兑损失所致。我们认为，若伊朗冲突后续局势不确定性下降，下游石化、能源行业补库需求释放，公司业绩有望逐步修复。
　　高端化布局持续推进，下游回暖有望带动业绩修复
　　公司持续推进高端不锈钢管产品研发与市场拓展，致力于提升高附加值产品占比。公司坚持"精品之路、品牌典范"的发展理念，巩固石油、化工、电站等传统优势行业，积极拓展核电、煤化工、LNG等高端领域，加快推进年产2万吨高端装备用高性能不锈钢无缝管项目投产。2026年经营计划以"稳"为主，力争保持稳定经营收入和利润水平。随着下游石化、能源行业投资回暖及设备更新需求释放，公司订单有望逐步恢复，业绩有望改善。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到下游需求走弱拖累公司盈利能力，我们下调公司石化板块产品营收及毛利率、天然气板块产品营收，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为1.05/1.09/1.30亿元，26/27年较前值下调63.82%/67.09%，对应EPS为0.19/0.19/0.23元，BVPS为4.87/4.99/5.14元。考虑公司属于重资产企业，其高端产能、技术专利等竞争力均体现在净资产端，我们调整为可比公司市净率估值法。可比公司2026年PB均值为1.97X，因公司下游需求偏弱导致盈利承压，我们给予10%折价率，给予公司1.77XPB，目标价8.63元（前值5.93元，对应25年13.8XPE）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。