投资要点：
　　中国石化集团公司2026年工作会议提到，“十五五”时期，中国石化所处发展环境将发生一系列转折性、系统性变化，传统发展路径已难以支撑我们穿越变局、承载重任，要实现破局突围、做到永续发展，必须下决心推进一场全方位变革。
　　改革措施：1）加快构建“一基两翼三链四新”产业新格局；2）重组四大事业部，部门压减，集团总部部门从约30个压减至20个左右；人员下沉，数百名总部管理人员调往业务单元。
　　改革如何转化为效益：1）重视投资回报率，优化投资项目管理；2）严控成本费用：要实施成本领先战略，牢固树立“一切成本皆可降”理念，大力推进精益管理，大幅提高成本竞争力。
　　盈利预测与估值：我们认为中国石化未来3-5年盈利有望稳定上台阶，2026-2028年业绩预测407/458/512亿元，A股PE估值分别为16.4/14.6/13倍，H股PE估值分别为12.1/10.8/9.6倍，按照未来70%分红比例对应A股股息率4.3%/4.8%/5.4%，H股股息率5.8%/6.5%/7.3%，A股PB仅0.79倍，H股PB仅0.6倍，具备很强的安全边际和一定的上行空间。
　　风险提示：政策不及预期风险；行业竞争加剧风险；需求不及预期风险；原料大幅波动风险。

　　事件：2026年8月23日晚，中国石化发布2026年半年度报告。2026年上半年公司实现营业收入14,365.61亿元，同比增长1.95%；实现归母净利润256.27亿元，同比增长19.29%；实现扣非后归母净利润252.73亿元，同比增长19.13%；实现基本每股收益0.21元，同比增长19.77%。
　　其中，第二季度公司实现营业收入7,298.66亿元，同比增长8.34%，环比增长3.28%；实现归母净利润86.21亿元，同比增长4.89%，环比下降49.31%；实现扣非后归母净利润81.86亿元，同比增长2.43%，环比下降52.09%；实现基本每股收益0.07元，同比增长5.16%，环比下降49.29%。
　　点评：
　　上游及炼油板块增利、化工减亏，推动业绩稳增。油价端，2026年1、2月油价在供需偏宽松背景下小幅震荡，3月受美伊冲突升级、霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻影响，国际油价大幅上涨；二季度国际原油延续一季度地缘主导逻辑，月度走势呈“4、5月高位震荡、6月快速跳水”特征。根据iFind数据，2026年上半年布伦特平均油价为87.60美元/桶，同比上涨23.71%。而由于二季度油价冲高回落，公司部分原油及炼化产成品库存出现减值，二季度公司资产减值损失为155亿元。分板块盈利看，2026年上半年公司勘探开发、炼油、营销、化工板块分别实现经营收益287.29、170.21、56.82、-2.47亿元，同比+50.91、+134.86、-22.77、+39.77亿元，受益油价上涨，原油、成品油等价格走高带来库存增利，叠加公司增产航煤、炼油副产品等高附加值产品，上游及炼油板块改善显著，同时化工板块减亏，推动业绩稳步增长。
　　紧抓高油价时机，加大勘探开发力度，国内油气产量创历史同期新高。2026年上半年，本公司抓住高油价时机，加大高效勘探和效益开发力度，渤海湾盆地页岩油等勘探取得重要突破，资阳东峰页岩气田和榆鄂煤层气田高效探明；天然气全产业链盈利再创历史同期最好水平。上半年实现油气当量产量263.47百万桶，同比增长0.3%，其中境内原油产量127.68百万桶，同比增长0.7%，天然气产量7,415.70亿立方英尺，同比增长0.7%。
　　炼油副产物盈利走阔，化工减亏明显，炼化板块整体改善。炼油板块，上半年公司推进“油转化”“油转特”产业体系建设，灵活调整产品结构，增产高附加值、高创效产品，航煤、石脑油、炼油副产品等产品毛利大幅好转，抵消了进口原油采购贴水和运费上涨影响，上半年炼油毛利为人民币453元/吨，同比增长人民币139元/吨，同比增长44.1%。销售方面，由于高油价抑制成品油消费以及新能源替代加速影响，国内成品油消费继续下滑，上半年成品油合计销售8396.6万吨，同比下降9.4%。化工方面，上半年国内化工需求仍疲弱，上半年公司乙烯产量639.4万吨，同比下降15.5%，公司大力降低原料成本，加大轻质原料投入，拓展海外市场，上半年化工产品销售总量3,786万吨，其中出口同比增长70%，创历史新高，板块减亏明显，助力炼化板块业绩整体改善。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为433.10、475.11和514.08亿元，归母净利润增速分别为36.2%、9.7%和8.2%，EPS（摊薄）分别为0.36、0.39和0.43元/股，对应2026年8月24日的收盘价，对应2026-2028年PE分别为14.88、13.57和12.54倍。我们看好公司在行业存量竞争背景下的长期发展优势和未来炼化行业景气上行带来的业绩弹性，叠加公司高股东回报的长期价值，我们维持公司“买入”评级。
　　风险因素：原油价格大幅波动风险；公司新建产能投产不及预期的风险；下游需求修复不及预期的风险；新能源汽车销售替代风险；美伊冲突带来原料短期风险。

　　投资要点：
　　上半年归母净利润256亿，Q1/Q2分别170/86亿元。上半年计提减值约157亿元（去年同期24亿元），剔除计提减值影响上半年利润同比+61%。上半年EPS0.212元/股，拟分红0.105元/股。二季度炼油受到国内保供压力极大，如此艰难情况下实现业绩超预期，原因可能主要来自成品油出口利润。
　　经营数据：上半年原油产量同比-0.1%，天然气产量同比+0.7%。实现油价约80美元/桶，同比+17%。上半年原油加工量同比-5.6%（Q1基本持平，主要下降来自Q2）；汽柴煤油产量同比-3.1%，化工轻油产量同比-15.2%，成品油销量-9.9%。乙烯产量同比-15.5%，体现保油减化。
　　利润指标：勘探开发板块经营收益287亿元，Q1/Q2分别为124/163亿元。炼油板块经营收益170亿元，Q1/Q2分别188/-18亿元。营销分销板块经营收益57亿，Q1/Q2分别57/0亿元。化工板块经营收益-2亿元，Q1/Q2分别-13/+11亿元。四大板块中除了营销分销板块，其他三个板块均同比改善。
　　资本开支现金流：上半年资本支出487亿元，同比+49亿元。全年计划1316-1486亿元，比去年-10%~+1%。上半年经营活动现金流625亿元，同比+2.4%。
　　盈利预测：我们认为中国石化未来3-5年盈利有望稳定上台阶，26/27/28年业绩预测407/458/512亿元，按照未来70%分红比例对应A股股息率4.6%/5.2%/5.8%，H股股息率5.9%/6.7%/7.5%，具备很强的安全边际和一定的上行空间。
　　风险提示：政策不及预期风险；行业竞争加剧风险；需求不及预期风险；原料大幅波动风险期。

　　事件：2026年4月28日，公司发布2026年第一季度报告。2026年第一季度，公司实现营业收入7067.0亿元，同比下降3.9%；实现归母净利润170.1亿元，同比增长28.2%；实现扣非归母净利润170.9亿元，同比增长29.2%。
　　勘探及开发：26Q1产量稳定，利润基本持平。1）产量：26Q1，公司油气当量产量13149万桶油当量，同比+0.4%；其中，原油产量6980万桶、同比+0.4%，天然气产量3700亿立方英尺，同比+0.4%。2）售价：26Q1，公司原油实现价格71.69美元/桶，同比+0.3%；天然气实现价格2.13元/立方米，同比-10.5%。3）盈利：26Q1该板块实现营业利润118.1亿元，同比+0.7%。
　　炼油：26Q1原油加工量平稳，利润同比大增。1）产量：26Q1，公司原油加工量6202万吨，同比-0.2%，汽/柴/煤油产量为1641/1298/867万吨，同比+1.4%/+2.2%/+4.3%，化工轻油产量为990万吨，同比-12.6%。2）价格：据iFind数据，26Q1金陵石化汽油出厂价为8650元/吨，同比-6.1%；大连石化柴油出厂价6865元/吨，同比-5.0%。截至4月27日的26Q2，汽油和柴油价格达10715和8748元/吨，相比25Q2的价格+23.9%、+27.4%。3）盈利：公司结合市场需求和效益情况，优化加工负荷、调整产品结构，增产高端碳材料、润滑油脂等产品，提升炼油副产品创效能力，26Q1该板块营业利润184.0亿元，同比+828.1%。
　　营销及分销：车用LNG销量增长，板块利润同比高增。1）销量：26Q1，公司成品油总销量为5546万吨，同比-0.2%。2）盈利：26Q1，公司优化经营策略，大力拓市扩销，高标，号汽油销量持续增长，境内成品油市场份额进一步提升，车用LNG销量、充电量以及氢气加注量同比大幅增长，该板块实现营业利润55.1亿元，同比+38.7%。
　　化工：乙烯、合成树脂产量下滑，板块利润同降。1）产量：26Q1，公司乙烯/合成树脂/合纤单体及聚合物/合成纤维/合成橡胶产量为355/514/284/30/38万吨，同比-8.0%/-9.5%/+9.3%/+1.4%/-7.5%。2）盈利：面对化工毛利持续收窄的不利形势，公司持续优化原料结构，降低原料成本，动态调整装置负荷和产品结构，推动资源高效配置深化产销研用协同创效，POE等化工新材料加快发展，26Q1该板块实现营业利润-15.1亿元，亏损有所增加。
　　投资建议：在地缘导致的油价上涨的催化下，公司勘探利润有望增长，同时建议关注中东地缘导致的公司炼化开工率下滑的风险。我们预计，2026~2028年归母净利润分别为520.39/610.38/637.89亿元，EPS分别为0.43/0.50/0.53元/股，对应2026年4月29日的PE分别为13/11/10倍，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：原油价格波动的风险，下游需求不及预期的风险，中东地缘导致炼化开工率下滑的风险。

Sinopec released its 1Q26 results on 28 April,reporting operating revenue of RMB706.7bn(-3.9%YoY,+5.5%QoQ)and attributable NP of RMB17.01bn(recurring NP:RMB17.09bn),up 28.2%YoY and 832%QoQ.Attributable NP in 1Q26 exceeded our estimate of RMB15.0bn,mainly due to higher-than-we-expected inventory gains from rising international oil prices.Considering Sinopec's pronounced edge in upstream-downstream synergy,the rebound in oil prices,and the turnaround in the petrochemical sector's capacity cycle,we think profitability in the refining and chemical segments could improve.We maintain our BUY rating for the A-/H-shares.Sinopec-H(386 HK)is on our Huatai Conviction BUY list.
Stepping up exploration efforts
In 1Q26,Sinopec's domestic crude oil output increased by 1.0%YoY to 63.4mn barrels,with the realized price up 0.3%YoY to USD71.7/barrel.Natural gas output rose by 0.4%YoY to 370.0bn cubic feet,while the realized price(including self-produced gas and LNG)declined by 10.5%YoY to RMB2.13/cubic meter.The exploration segment continued to focus on reserve expansion,boosting production,and cost reduction.However,due to the YoY decline in natural gas realized prices,segment operating profit fell by RMB550mn YoY to RMB12.36bn in 1Q26.
Crude inventory gains+better price spread improved profit
In 1Q26,the refining segment's crude oil processing volume declined by 0.2%YoY to 62.0mn tonnes,with gasoline/diesel/kerosene output up 1.4/2.2/4.3%YoY to 16.4/13.0/8.7mn tonnes,while chemical light oil output fell by 12.6%YoY to 9.9mn tonnes.The refining segment optimized the pace of resource procurement and its plant utilization rates in 1Q26,thanks to inventory gains due to rising international oil prices and improved by-product spreads,leading to aYoY increase of RMB16.35bn in operating profit to RMB18.79bn.The marketing segment's domestic refined oil sales volume edged up 0.6%YoY to 43.4mn tonnes in 1Q26,with operating profit increasing by RMB1.44bn YoY to RMB5.65bn.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering potential disruption to global feedstock supply from Middle East tensions,we adopt aprudent approach and maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast at RMB50.1/57.7/61.5bn,implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.41/0.48/0.51.Based on HKD1=RMB0.88,we value the A-/H-shares at 19.5/13.0x 2026E PE,above their peers'averages of 18.8/10.8x on Wind&Bloomberg consensus to reflect Sinopec's integrated chain advantages,progress in new materials,and non-fuel business transformation.We revise our target prices to RMB8.00/HKD6.06(previous:RMB8.61/HKD6.99,based on 21.0/15.0x 2026E PE at HKD1=RMB0.88).Maintain BUY for the A-/H-shares.Sinopec-H(386HK)is on our Huatai Conviction BUY list.
Risks:Sharp fluctuations in international oil prices,geopolitical uncertainties,weaker downstream demand than we expect.

Sinopec’s earnings surged 27% YoY to RMB17.7bn in 1Q26 under IFRS. Refining segment was the key growth driver with operating profit jumping 6.7x YoY to RMB18.8bn, partly helped by an RMB6.3bn inventory gain. However, the company’s earnings outlook is highly uncertain in 2Q26. Refining profit is likely to fall QoQ as the high oil price started to hit and domestic prices of gasoline and diesel were not raised proportionally. While we raise our 2026-27 earnings forecasts by 4-8%, we reiterate our HOLD calls at this stage.

Sinopec’s net profit dropped 34% YoY to RMB32.5bn in 2025 under IFRS, 7% below our forecast. The discrepancy mainly came from the bigger-than-expected impairment. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused trouble to the company’s refining operations. Not only is the crude oil cost getting much higher, the availability of crude oil is also in question. We trim our 2026-27 earnings forecasts by 7-9%. Maintain HOLD given the low visibility of the company’s earnings beyond 1Q26.
Key Factors for Rating
In 2025, the company made total impairment of RMB8.6bn against its fixed assets, much higher than RMB2.4bn in 2024 and our assumption of RMB2.5bn. In which, RMB5.65bn was for the chemicals segment given the prolonged operating loss of the segment.
The big drop in earnings was mainly due to the earnings decline at its E&P segment and marketing segment. The operating profit of its E&P segment dropped 19% YoY to RMB45.5bn on a 13% YoY decline in realised oil price. The operating profit of its marketing segment fell 47% YoY to RMB10bn on lower domestic sales and inventory loss.
Looking ahead, we expect the company’s earnings to surge 63% YoY in 2026 as almost all segments should see improved earnings on the rise in oil price. At the very least, we expect very strong earnings for 1Q26.
However, the earnings visibility beyond 1Q26 becomes low as the blockade of Strait of Hormuz not only results in sharply higher oil cost for its refining business, but also makes it difficult for the company to secure sufficient oil supply. About 90% of crude oil input for its refining business comes from sea-borne imports, with the majority of it from the Middle East. While the company tries hard to secure alternate supply, it is not easy to replace the supply of 2-3m bbl/day in a short period of time.
Key Risks for Rating
Chinese Government subsidises the company on the loss arising from the sharp rise in cost of imported crude oil.
Better-than-expected profitability of downstream operations.
Valuation
We lower our target price for its H shares from HK$5.12 to HK$4.98 to reflect the cuts in our earnings forecasts and hence dividend forecasts. We roll over our target valuation from average 2025-27E dividend yield 5.8% to 2026-28E.
We also reduce our target price for its A shares from RMB6.34 to RMB6.00. We still base our target price on its 3-month average A-H premium which is at 41%.