Yutong Heavy Industries’ (YTHI) 3Q24 revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB1,024/47.49mn (+57.91/+68.60% yoy, +31.38/-7.88% qoq), the latter in line with our expectation of RMB40-60mn and growth for both mainly driven by rising sales volume of new energy equipment. For 9M24, revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB2,505/131/97.53mn (+24.42/+4.69/+98.30% yoy). Backed by notable competitive edges in new-energy sanitation vehicles, YTHI is poised to benefit from a cash flow recovery driven by the debt resolution policy, in our view. We are bullish on its improving financials and earnings growth outlook. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
9M24 net operating cash flow rose 121% yoy
In 3Q24, the gross profit was RMB123mn (-17.48% yoy), with a GPM of 12.4% (-11pp yoy) and an NPM of 5.02% (+0.34pp yoy); overall expenses were RMB92.20mn (-29.91% yoy). As of 30 September, accounts receivable were RMB1,249mn (+65.01% yoy) and net operating cash flow for 9M24 rose 120.75% yoy to RMB353mn, mainly backed by improved receivables collection from customers. As sanitation service and equipment businesses mainly rely on fiscal payments, we expect YTHI to benefit from a cash flow recovery driven by the debt resolution policy.
9M24 sales volume of new energy sanitation vehicles rose 51% yoy
NFRA data on compulsory insurance for vehicle traffic accident liability showed that there were 541k units of sanitation vehicles insured nationwide in 9M24 (-10% yoy), with 6,066 units of new-energy sanitation vehicles sold during this period (+40% yoy), corresponding to a penetration rate of 11.2% (+4.0pp yoy). There were 1,910 units of YTHI-made sanitation vehicles insured in 9M24 (-6% yoy), with 1,292 units of new-energy ones sold during this period (+51% yoy), implying penetration of 68% (+26pp yoy). We expect buoyant sales of new-energy equipment to buoy YTHI’s revenue.
Target valuation: 24.2x 2025E PE, target price: RMB12.58
We maintain our earnings forecasts and project YTHI’s 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB239/277/325mn. Given buoyant sales of its new-energy sanitation vehicles, and the potential to continue benefiting from a trend towards electric/smart sanitation vehicles, we value the stock at 24.2x 2025E PE, above its peers’ average of 16.7x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB12.58 (previous: RMB11.16).
Risks: greater asset/credit impairment, lower sanitation-equipment sales, and slower progress in developing the market-oriented sanitation segment than we expect.

　　宇通重工发布三季报：Q3实现营收10.24亿元（yoy+57.91%，qoq+31.38%），归母净利4748.57万元（yoy+68.60%，qoq-7.88%），符合我们的预期（4000-6000万元），营收、归母净利增长主要来自新能源设备销量增长。2024年Q1-Q3实现营收25.05亿元（yoy+24.42%），归母净利1.31亿元（yoy+4.69%），扣非净利9752.89万元（yoy+98.30%）。公司新能源环卫车优势明显，有望受益于化债政策带来的现金流改善，看好其报表修复和业绩成长前景。维持“增持”评级。
　　前三季度经营现金流同比+121%，有望受益于化债政策
　　Q3公司毛利1.23亿元，同比-17.48%，毛利率12.04%，同比-11.00pct，净利率5.02%，同比0.34pct，期间费用9219.81万元，同比-29.91%。截至9月30日，公司应收账款12.49亿元，同比65.01%，前三季度经营活动现金流净额3.53亿元，同比120.75%，主要是客户回款向好所致。环卫服务和装备业务以财政付费模式为主，公司有望受益于化债政策带来的现金流改善。
　　前三季度宇通新能源环卫车销量同增51%，渗透率提升26pct
　　据上险数据，前三季度全国环卫车辆上险5.41万台，同比-10%，其中新能源环卫车辆销量6066台，同比+40%，渗透率11.2%，同比提升4.0个百分点；
　　宇通重工环卫车辆上险1910台，同比-6%，新能源环卫车辆销量1292台，同比+51%，渗透率68%，同比提升26个百分点。公司新能源装备销量高增，有望驱动收入增长。
　　拟分股分红0.10元，持续回报股东
　　三季报公司拟每股派发现金红利0.10元（含税），合计拟派发现金红利5362.39万元（含税），占前三季度归母净利比例为41.01%。2021-2023年公司分红金额达1.86/2.03/2.01亿元，派息比例47.48/52.82/91.98%。
　　2025年目标PE24.2倍，目标价12.58元
　　维持盈利预测，我们预计2024-2026年归母净利润为2.39/2.77/3.25亿元。
　　可比公司2025年Wind一致预期PE均值为16.7倍，考虑公司新能源环卫车销量高增，有望持续受益于环卫车电动化和智能化趋势，给予公司2025年24.2倍PE，对应目标价12.58元（前值：11.16元）。
　　风险提示：资产减值和信用减值超出预期、环卫装备销售不及预期、环卫市场化进程不及预期。

1H24 revenue +8.5% yoy, maintain OVERWEIGHT
Yutong Heavy Industries’ (YTHI) revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP were RMB1,481/83.28/66.79mn (+8.50/-13.91/+41.20% yoy) for 1H24. In 2Q24, revenue/attributable NP were RMB780/51.55mn (+5.68/-23.56% yoy, +11.13/ +62.48% qoq). We estimate 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB0.45/0.52/0.61. Given the significant rise in sales volume of YTHI’s new energy (NE) sanitation vehicles in 1H24, with a market share of 22% and top position in terms of ownership for four consecutive years, we believe YTHI could continue benefiting from electrification and intelligentization trends in sanitation vehicles. Therefore, we value the stock at 24.8x 2024E PE, above its peers’ average of 17.1x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB11.16. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Credit impairment and subsidy reduction dragged profits in 1H24
In 1H24, the gross profit was RMB372mn (+RMB50.66mn yoy), with a GPM of 25.11% (+1.58pp yoy); overall expenses were RMB232mn (-RMB12.46mn yoy), while credit impairment losses were RMB28.85mn (1H23: a reversal of RMB8.17mn); other income was RMB17.90mn (1H23: RMB50.10mn, including Zhengzhou automobile subsidies/tax rebates & credits of RMB24.62/18.69mn); net operating cash flow was RMB122mn (-23% yoy). As of 30 June, accounts receivable were RMB1,121mn (+27% yoy), with 137 days of turnover (1H23: 124 days).
1H24 NE sanitation vehicle sales volume/revenue +75/0.69% yoy
According to terminal retail data from CATARC, China’s 1H24 insurance registrations of sanitation vehicles were 37k units (-8.8% yoy); registrations of NE sanitation vehicles were 3,190 units (+21.2% yoy). Penetration of NE sanitation vehicles was 8.6% (+2.5pp yoy). The number of cities with NE sanitation vehicles demand exceeding 10 units increased from 38 in 1H23 to 44 in 1H24, up 15.8% yoy. YTHI had 1,161 units of sanitation vehicles insured in 1H24 (-11.0% yoy), including 701 NE sanitation vehicles (+74.8% yoy), with a market share of 22% (+6pp yoy), and its NE sanitation vehicle ownership ranked first in the industry for a fourth consecutive year. Revenue from sanitation services was RMB360mn in 1H24, up 0.69% yoy.
Competitive edges in NE mining vehicles
YTHI had strong competitive edges in the NE mining vehicle sector in 1H24, and plans to launch pure electric and hybrid mining vehicles with capacities of 130 tonnes and above, while also accelerating expansion in the coal mining vehicle market and implementation of unmanned vehicle projects.
Risks: disappointing sanitation-equipment sales; intensified competition in the sanitation-services market; slower sales growth of mining vehicles.

　　24H1收入同比+8.5%，维持“增持”评级
　　宇通重工发布半年报，2024年H1实现营收14.81亿元（yoy+8.50%），归母净利8327.70万元（yoy-13.91%），扣非净利6678.72万元（yoy+41.20%）。其中Q2实现营收7.80亿元（yoy+5.68%，qoq+11.13%），归母净利5155.01万元（yoy-23.56%，qoq+62.48%）。我们预计公司2024-2026年EPS分别为0.45、0.52、0.61元。可比公司24年Wind一致预期PE均值为17.1倍，考虑24H1公司新能源环卫车销量高增，市占率达22%，保有量连续四年稳居行业第一，有望持续受益于环卫车电动化和智能化趋势，给予公司24年24.8倍PE，目标价11.16元，维持“增持”评级。
　　24H1信用减值/补贴减少拖累利润，经营现金流净额同比-23%
　　24H1宇通重工实现毛利3.72亿元，同比增加5066万元，毛利率25.11%（yoy+1.58pp）；期间费用2.32亿元，同比减少1246万元，信用减值损失2885万元（1H23：冲回817万元），其他收益1790万元（1H23：5010万元，其中郑州市汽车奖补资金/退税抵税2462/1869万元）；经营现金流净额1.22亿元（yoy-23%）。截至6月30日，公司应收账款11.21亿元（yoy+27%），应收账款周转天数137天（1H23：124天）。
　　24H1新能源环卫车销量+75%，环卫服务营收同比+0.69%
　　根据中汽数据终端零售数据，24H1我国环卫车上险3.7万台（yoy-8.8%），其中新能源环卫车3190台（yoy+21.2%），新能源渗透率8.6%（yoy+2.5pp），新能源需求超过10台的城市由2023年上半年的38个扩张到2024年上半年的44个（yoy+15.8%）。24H1宇通重工环卫车上险1161台（yoy-11.0%），其中新能源环卫车701台（yoy+74.8%），市占率22%（yoy+6pp），保有量连续四年稳居行业第一。24H1公司环卫服务营收3.60亿元，同比+0.69%。
　　发挥新能源矿用车竞争优势，丰富产品应用场景
　　2024年上半年，公司发挥新能源矿用车行业领先的竞争优势，下半年将陆续推出130t及以上纯电、混合动力等矿用车产品，同时加快推进煤矿车市场开拓和无人驾驶项目落地。目前公司产品已在全国29个省份，超过100个矿区批量运营或试运营，累计运营里程超5000万公里，单车最大运营里程超22万公里，运营天数超2000天。同时公司不断扩张海外市场，目前已在泰国、印尼、阿联酋、智利、蒙古等多个国家和地区达成项目落地。
　　风险提示：环卫装备销售不及预期，环卫服务市场竞争加剧，矿用车销量增长不及预期。